Will the 2020 Indianapolis 500 (Aug. 23) be the ultimate COVID super-spreader event?

The Quarantine Zone
1

I’ve been a fan of IndyCar and open wheel racing for at least 25 years, but I’m alarmed and dismayed that Roger Penske, the new owner of the Indianapolis Motor Speedway and the IndyCar Series, has decided to have fans in the stands for the 2020 running of the Indianapolis 500 race, rescheduled for Aug. 23.

Until now, the curtailed IndyCar season has been run with no fans in the stands, which is obviously tough for the promoters, track owners, and hundreds of people who made their living from those events. But IMHO, for the vast majority of fans who only watch the races on TV, the absence of fans has had no significant impact on the enjoyment of the racing. (We could talk about those new aeroscreens, but not in this forum.)

For the 500, IMS is implementing some safety precautions, such as lowering the number of tickets sold from over 250,000 to about one quarter of that (87,500), canceling all of the concerts that were to have been held on site during the weekend, and requiring masks. The original plan was to sell half the seats and give masks to every guest, but not require wearing them. (Apparently, a significant contingent of fans were posting online that they wouldn’t wear masks.) So IMS has been getting stricter with their plans.

IANA epidemiologist, but I think that this will be a public health disaster. There’s no way that the promoters can effectively police tens of thousands of people to make sure they keep their masks on and social distance. Even if all 90,000 people behaved perfectly, I believe that bringing that many people together, even on the Speedway’s 560 acres, would still result in a significant spread of the virus. And, knowing how race fans behave, I can guarantee that a large number will not behave perfectly. And thousands of them will return to their homes all around the country – and the world – and spread the virus further.

My admittedly superficial Googling has not found any signs of government action or civil lawsuits being filed to stop the race.

What do you think?

2

Ultimate? No. It’s outside.

3

That’s it? “It’s outside”?

Anyway, the rest rooms aren’t outside, the concourses under the grandstand, while open to the air, are somewhat enclosed, and tens of thousands of people will have to crowd through restricted gateways to get in and out of the track each day. (It’s a three-day event.) I haven’t checked to see if the highly prized (indoor) skyboxes will be open to their (mostly corporate) owners.

Furthermore, races are now being held all around the world without fans, every single one of them “outside,” but somehow authorities in control of those events and facilities have decided that letting fans attend wouldn’t be safe. What’s different about IMS and the 500?

4

Also worth noting, the fans have to get to the event somehow - which in itself is likely to be a risk.
Flying is obvious but even driving may well involve stopoffs with the opportunity to spread it around roadside diners, and some folk might book Motels.
After the event the return journey again will present opportunities for spreading.

5

You said ultimate, I said no.

It’s absolutely a problem, but it won’t be the worst.

6

Snark answer: It’s in the USA and is popular with the “less COVID-enlightened” shall we say. So that’s a show that must go on. Because commerce.

Serious answer: Nothing is different.

At the same time, 90K people traveling over a weekend are a relative drop in the bucket. TSA reports roughly 10 times that many Americans fly someplace every single day of every single (recent) week and the numbers are increasing not decreasing week to week. Millions of people go into a Wal*Mart every day. 100K people go into a Wal*Mart 5 days a week every week because they work in one. And there’s a lot more to US consumer commerce than just Wal*Mart. 90K people sounds like a lot until you look at the ocean of people it’s embedded in.

If the virus was confined to just a couple areas of the US, then bringing people from all over, including people from the affected areas, to one specific spot, stirring well for several days, then sending them all home again would indeed be a nice way to seed the virus into previously virus-free areas. But that ship sailed some time in March.

Do I think that net, net the USA would be better off if no spectators attend the 500? Sure! Will the difference be big enough to notice within the context of the all-encompassing shitstorm in progress today that will probably be worse by late Aug? IANA epidemiologist, but I suspect not.

7

My take is that it might be a super-spreader event and it might not. It depends on so many factors that I dint think it’s predictable.

But I thunk the odds are worse than they would’ve been in early May. We got “lucky” with some of those early post-lockdowns events. Not all luck either, what people need to realize is that a stadium full of people that have been locked down for a month is different from a stadium full of people that have been out and about in the world.

8

Okay, I admit “ultimate” was a bit hyperbolic. Thanks for clarifying.

9

Good points, and a worthwhile perspective with respect to relative numbers. Thanks.

10

Ultimate means last, so if this event results in the extinction of humanity, it will have been the ultimate COVID super-spreader event. My guess, though, is that it will be the antepenultimate one.