Will the democrats hold the senate after 2012

[Boyo_Jim]

@Simplicio

Yea, even if they had no advantage from their incumbency, I’d expect it to be at least a little higher then 50%, simply because the appointments are usually done by governors who presumably appoint members of their own party, and you’d expect a state that elected a governor from party X to want to elect a senator from the same party.

I don’t have numbers for it, but I know it’s not uncommon for states to favor different parties at the local level than the Federal level. And there are plenty of cases when the two senators from one state are from different parties. And of course there is the chance that a new governor from a different party will be elected after a senatorial election but before the need for a senatorial appointment arises.