Senate race 2014

<ducks rotten tomato, only to be hit by cabbage> Ouch! </ducking>

OK, so they are still counting 2012 ballots in FL (to the suprise of nobody) but I am curious about the prospects for 2014 senate races.

Of course it is WAY to early to take any personalities or positions into account, but what are the numbers for D vs. R seats that will be on the 2014 ballot? (assuming, that all seated/elected senators avoid death and live boys and dead girls in their beds) The Dems overcame a huge disadvantage this cycle, so it would seem that the R’s are about due for needing to defend a similarly lopsided landscape, but I have not seen the numbers, and my google-foo is failing on this one.

[heats tar, collects feathers]

Enjoy: 2014 United States Senate elections - Wikipedia

Currently it will be 20 Democrat incumbents up vs. 13 Republicans. The GOP districts all seem to be in pretty safe states as well while the Democrats have SD, MT, WV, NC, AR, LA, and VA to defend (and maybe NH).

So the really strong showing last night was essential to holding the majority after 2014.

ETA: Dems defending Alaska too…

Looks like 20 Dems and 13 Rep seats are in play.

Dang, beat to the post by Jas09

The “good news”, if you will, is that some will retire and the Tea Party will likely primary McConnell, Graham, and Alexander. So you can be reasonably sure at least a few states will be given to the Democrats “Akin style”.

Scott Brown left open the possibility of another run in his concession speech. There’s already talk this morning that John Kerry will be tapped as Secretary of State shortly, meaning we’ll have another special election, which are apparently Scott’s specialty.

Frank Lautenberg will be 90 in 2014. Can he really be planning to run again, or is there going to be a Christie/Booker contest in NJ?

He pooped in his nest by the way he ran against Warren. He’s done.

Does this mean that Warren will be the senior senator from Mass?

He still got 46% of the vote, and there are no other high profile Republicans in the state. It’s him or Ted’s occasional gadfly, Jack E. Robinson.

The 2014 question is already answered. Looking ahead, the 2016 election will put 34 seats in play, 10 currently Democratic and 24 currently Republican.

The key question is whether the GOP will continue the trend from 2010 and 2012 and throw away what should have been easy races by nominating whack-a-doodle candidates. Two more cycles of that, and the Democrats will have a filibuster-proof majority even accounting for occasional Blue Dog defections.

If I’m not mistaken, Jim DeMint has said he won’t be running for re-election from South Carolina. That means there will be a dogfight over his seat. It’s always possible that some Democrat could come out of it on top, though I wouldn’t hold my breath (two years is a long time to hold it, anyway).

Name to keep an eye on regarding this: Mick Mulvaney. Currently Representative from the very north end of South Carolina (the part up against NC under Charlotte). He’s a political climber over the last few years, bouncing from state House to state Senate then to Rep. in three straight elections. Took out an old Democratic Representative (Spratt) who most had considered unbeatable last election cycle (tea party stuff). Held easily this year. I expect him to try for even higher things.

Ok looking at what we have coming up in 2014, let me make a few predictions. Go ahead and book mark them if you want to!

Alabama - safe republican, no chance of republican losing “Akin style” here (I love that, thank you)

Alaska - probably republican - Begich only won in 2008 because Ted “series of tubes” Stephens was found guilty of political corruption, graft, or something. And even then it was close.

Arkansas - leans democrat - they are very competetive at the state level, incumbent advantage too.

Colorado - Toss-up (wild ass guess here)

Delaware - Safe Dem (guess)

Georgia - Safe Republican

Idaho - Safe Republican

Illinois - Safe Democrat (unless there’s something about Dick Durbin I don’t know)

Iowa - Leans Dem (wild ass guess)

Kansas - Safe Republican

Kentucky - Toss-up (McConnell might lose to tea partier, democrat wins “Akin style”)

Louisiana - Leans Republican - Mary Landrieu will be in the fight for her life if she decides to run. She will be the next Claire McCaskill. Only way she wins is if we get another “Akin style” win.

Maine - Toss-up - I predict Susan Collins retires. If she doesn’t, she might be in trouble from a serious democratic challenger.

Mass - Lean-dem - John Kerry is probably moving on up the political ladder to a cabinet position. But it has to lean dem right now

Michigan - lean dem (wild ass guess)

Minnesota - Safe dem (why get rid of Al Franken? They won’t)

Mississippi - Safe republican

Montana - Toss-up - Montana has been fairly split recently so this is going to be a tough fight either way.

Nebraska - safe republican

New Hampshire - safe dem (wild ass guess)

New Jersey - leans dem (incumbent will be retiring probably)

New Mexico - Safe dem

North Carolina - toss-up (another fight for your political life here, but maybe lean dem a little)

Oklahoma - Safe rep

Oregon - Safe dem

R.I. - Safe dem

South Carolina - toss-up (I fully expect a tea party upset in primaries here considering stuff Graham has said, possible democratic win “Akin style”)

South Dakota - leans rep (another fight for a democratic incumbent’s life)

Tennessee - safe rep

Texas - safe rep

Virginia - leans/safe dem

W. Virginia - toss-up (another fight for a D’s life)

Wyoming - Safe rep

Just looking at the GOP-held seats in the 2014 Senate class, you can pretty much tell the Dems are going to lose ground in the Senate in 2014, because their best hope for a pickup is if Collins retires in Maine.

The other 12 GOP-held seats are in: KY, TN, SC, GA, AL, MS, TX, OK, KS, NE, WY, ID. Very unfriendly territory for the Dems, all the way down the line. The Dems didn’t leave anything on the table when they had their banner year in 2008.

So the good news about last night is that the Dems have a buffer that, barring a really bad year, should enable them to hold onto the Senate in 2014, despite the near inevitability that they will lose a few seats.

I agree with most of drewtwo99’s assessments, so I’ve got nothing significant to add. I will say, however, that Obama’s performance in the coming years will have a major impact on whether the Democrats can maintain control of the Senate. For a lot of the Democrats coming up for re-election, their favorability has plummeted as a direct result of Republican efforts to pin Obama’s perceived failures to them.

2006 was a banner year for the Democrats as well, which is why everyone was predicting losses this year, possibly even control being handed over to the Republicans.

But thank god for the Tea Party and their propensity for primarying electable republicans out of political existence.

I think it’s quite possible and probably likely this will happen to some extent in 2014, considering how many of the Tea Party believe that it’s the end of the world.

Unless Max Baucus dies or retires, you can put that down as solidly dem. He’s been there since '76 and managed to survive through the 80’s and 90’s when Montana was about as solidly Republican as it ever has been. The Republican establishment doesn’t even put much effort into trying to oust him these days-- the somewhat looney perennial candidate who somehow won the Republican nomination in 2008 did about as well as the genuine Republican who won it in 2002.

Why? I suppose it’s possible that the state GOP will capitalize on whatever has moved the state to vote for the Republican presidential candidate the last four times, but Joe Manchin just won by 15 points this year, after winning by 10 in a special election in 2010. Jay Rockefeller won by 27 last time.

Mark Udall isn’t going away until he retires. He is well liked in the state and comes from Western royalty, the Udall family.

As it turns out, it’s Lindsey Graham who’s up for re-election in 2014 from South Carolina, and yes, he could well be in for a bad time given the fact that he’s clearly a RINO to many conservatives. God help him, because he’s actually not a bad senator.