We started discussing it over in this thread.
Bloody hell, it’s a wonder your politicians ever even remember what they’re being elected for. (They do sometimes, right?)
Well, I’m not quite sure what you’re after, here, TriPolar.
But yes, there will be midterm elections. Democrats will be defending more Senate seats than the Republicans by a margin of 20-13. So there will be some assumptions that a loss of ground for the D side is expected.
Of course, that’s what happened this year, too, and things didn’t work out quite like they planned, did they?
Something that occurred to me last week. In the last four federal elections, 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012…the Democrats won three of those handily. The odd one out, 2010, was the Tea Party election. I think motivated that level of interest will be difficult on an ongoing basis.
Of course, there’s a lot that can happen in two years…
Yeah, it’s early in the game. But it’s time to look at things now to set a baseline and watch the progress. We know the Republican Party has to sort out it’s post election depression. After that I’m sure the messaging will change. But what will the Democrats do? I think they’re in a position to win a substantial number of seats with a coordinated campaign. But aside from the Obama elections I’ve never seen the Democrats conduct a coordinated campaign. And what will Obama do to pick up seats?
Oh yeah? Well you and the people from where ever you’re from do something funny that we sneer at. (And no, they never care what they’re elected for).
You also have to keep in mind that the people swing from one party to another every few years (every 8 years or so per the Washington Post). So no matter how extreme and offensive the Republicans get and how many presidential elections they lose, they will still probably win the House and/or Senate in the next 8 years or so.
I think much will depend on how much Obama and the Dems give up for their “Grand Bargain.” Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare are important to many in the middle class, and their relatives. If the Dems let the Pubs do anything that results in the substantial cuts to those programs, a lot of regular Democratic voters are gonna feel genuinely betrayed, and that will cut deep into the turnout at the polls. Republican sweep results, almost certainly.
Also, if there is another bank crisis and the economy crashes again, it will hurt the Dems because everyone knows they have shown zero interest in fixing things. Of course, the Republicans have even less interest, but that’s the problem with the Dems and their “centrism” (and the fact that Wall Street owns them) they have steered so close to the Republican line that there’s no distinguishing between the two parties on economic issues, and the voters will vote whoever is perceived as being in power out, which in the midterms would be the Dems.
For one thing, more of the Tea Party will simply die off.
If you mean remember what they were elected to DO… that’s easy… they just sort their donor list and start working their way from biggest donor downward through their ‘special instructions’
The actual grass roots Tea Party citizens will be thrown under the bus by the currently elected Republicans who are now desperately trying to be viewed as brown, female, science friendly.
This will send the Tea Party citizens into an uproar. I’m looking forward to a wonderful set of primaries that will challenge Comedy Central in content.
I bet that is Rove’s daily prayer when he wakes up each morning. He funded the Tea Party into a solid enough existence that they can’t be easily squelched. Now that the Republicans want to suddenly turn on their haunches, the Tea Party citizens will be there like a brick wall preventing them and they (Tea Party citizens) will be encouraged by entertainers that make a lot of money keeping them in that fired up conservative mind set.
I don’t know. Obama got rid of the prescription doughnut hole, so now they get their meds all year round… plus preventative care is now covered without co-pays. I’m thinking that Obamacare is probably the best thing that could have happened to a lot of the Tea Party citizens. I want the Tea Party to be around long enough that Rove is forced to live on a remote island in shame for what he’s done to the Republican Party.
Another point: it COULD happen I suppose, but it almost certainly WON’T: the Republicans are very unlikely to come out with an assortment of incredibly stupid, incredibly vile statements on the topic of rape just prior to the midterm elections, like they did just prior to these elections. Women will still vote majority Democratic, but maybe not in the numbers they did in this election.
I could be wrong about that. I was AMAZED at the way Republicans made themselves into Team Rape this year.
Mitch McConnell is up again, after a narrow win in 2008. Are Kentuckians going to be pissed off enough at him to dump him? Pretty please with sugar on top?
Yes, can Kentuckians please send McConnell back to his old job as life drawing model for Art Instruction School?
But to what extent is it up to them?
In the run-up to the midterm elections, it’ll be no trouble at all to ask a guy running for office about his stance on abortion. There are places where the GOP nominee won’t get the requisite Republican backing if he says he’s pro-choice, so he’ll say he’s pro-life. And it’s no trouble at all to ask him “But what about rape?”
How does he reply?
A debate moderator says the Human Life Amendment makes no exception for rape; the Democrat on stage says “I’m against it”; the Republican – does what?
He hems and haws about the sanctity of life, the evil of rape and how this is why we need a member in congress who really understands the plight of the common person unlike his opponent who is an ivory tower liberal. Then go on with whatever talking point he wants and ignore the question.
The Republican message machine will have no problem going with the rape and incest exception. Neither will their core pro-life base. Their intent is to make all other abortions illegal, and they can remove the rape and incest exception later. The question is whether they can now coordinate this among their candidates. The introduction of the Tea Party as a subset of the Republican Party has broken the tradition of Republicans getting in line behind the party message.
The midterm elections always have lower turnout than the Presidential elections, so turnout will be important. The TEA Partiers were fired up in 2010 and likely will be again in 2014. They were fired up 2012 too but couldn’t overcome the Dem turnout. The House will probably shift a few seats (5 to 10) back toward the GOP in 2014. All of the GOP Senate seats are likely safe in 2014 aside from unforeseen retirements or primary defeats. At least two or three Dem Senate seats are vulnerable, maybe more.
I predict ‘no’. McConnell won by a 6% margin in 2008, a year that heavily favored Democrats in the Senate…not exactly narrow. I lived in KY for several years of my adult life, and I do not foresee McConnell being defeated. The best slim chance would be a primary defeat. It’s possible that he could retire, but not likely.
McConnell has already hired Ron Paul’s former campaign manager for 2014.
This is the conventional wisdom. But now that we’ve seen an election where the conventional wisdom didn’t apply very well could it make a difference if the Democrats organized a targeted campaign. Some number of Republican seats could be in districts or states where Republicans have had the advantage of low midterm turnout. Would a Democratic campaign to increase turnout result in some upsets?
I realize that 2012 was, in many ways, a refutation of conventional wisdom (at least about turnout), but I still think conventional wisdom has the benefit of doubt when it comes to midterm turnout. Given that the current demographic trend, including youth and minority turnout, established itself in 2008 (and proved not to be a fluke in 2012), the fact that 2010 bucked that trend shows that the midterm rule is still in play. If it is true that Obama’s turnout machine can work during midterm elections, then why didn’t it work in 2010?
No, turnout won’t be the Dems’ favor in 2014. The good news is that the GOP will now need 6 seats to gain a majority in the Senate. Even with turnout on their side (and a dozen vulnerable Dem seats), that will be a tall order. They’d have to win half of the contestable seats AND not lose any of their own. That’s also assuming the Tea Party doesn’t torpedo Republican moderates like Lindsey Graham, Susan Collins, and Alexander Lamar.