United States Senate elections, 2014.
United States House of Representatives elections, 2014.
Will control of either house shift? What role will the Tea Party play this year?
As far as the Senate is concerned, it will take a miracle for the D’s to keep control. Waaaay too many states where they are vulnerable and not really any where the R’s are in the same situation. Factor in it is a midterm election and how unpopular Obama is currently and it gets even more grim.
I doubt there will be much of a shift either way in the House.
Of course, if the Teatards manage to win primaries in enough states things could change, but I’m not counting on it at this point.
Yeah, democrats have kept the senate due to tea party sabotage of sure races twice in a row. A third time would be too much to hope for.
It’ll be interesting to see how the real handicappers set things up when things get moving. Nate Silver’s been offline as he transitions 538 to ESPN but Sam Wang says the bar for a D takeover of the house is only D+4-5% in the national numbers.
He made that statement in the wake of the shutdown. Whether that carries forward or not is - IMHO - largely a factor of whether we have another shutdown/debt ceiling fight led by Ted Cruz and his folks. I have no means by which to predict that event. Those people - and their backers - are true believers and not rational actors. That makes them unpredictable.
Sabato is saying some things but not making predictions yet either. It’s going to be an interesting year. And Stu Rothenburg is predicting an R gain of 4-7 seats. If we average that to 5.5 it leaves the outcome RIGHT on the line.
If I had to make a prediction - and I won’t allow myself to be held to it - I’d say a tightening in the house by 3-7 seats and D control of the house but something like 51-53.
Following that? 2 more years of not much getting done except noise.
I think the Democrats will lose seats in the Senate…South Dakota, probably West Virginia and Montana, but I think the Democrats will hold on barely…although with only 51-52 seats.
I don’t see any major changes in House composition.
I am at least excited to see that Baucus is out, though retirement isn’t quite as satisfying as primarying would have been. And I hope that the reason Schweitzer is staying out of the race is that he wants to go for the Presidency instead, but it probably means that he’s just retiring from politics.
Well, Schweitzer just commented today when asked about a 2016 run, that it would “ruin” his life, so I’d be surprised.
Did he? That’s a lot stronger than any statement he’s made before on the subject, and I can’t imagine him saying it if he didn’t really mean it. Ah, well, that’s a shame.
In the Senate, I think the GOP will win the open seats in SD and WV, and amoung Dem incumbents Mark Pryor in AS is the most likely to flip.
Mary Landrieu in LA is also a potential turnover, but she’s survives three such close elections previously. Plus LA’s strange primary puts all candidates on the ballot in November (followed by a runoff one month later should no candidate get 50%), which means the GOP candidates will be beating each other up all thru the fall. However, if control of the Senate hinged on that runoff in December, you can bet gobs of money will end up nationalizing this race.
I’d put Kay Hagen (NC) in the flip column as well–except that her opponent looks weak and NC is now a swing state (look at what a few years have done to VA, which is now solid blue). Her candidacy lives and dies with Obamacare; if it is still an issue next fall, she will likely lose. IMO it’s not likely to have the staying power the right is hoping for, so I’ll call it a tossup.
MT is an interesting open-seat race–and I share Chronos excitement that Max Baucus is finally out. My guess is that Govenor Bullock will appoint Dem challenger John Walsh to Baucus’ seat, which will allow him to tap into the Washington cash he’ll need to compete. If this happens, the seat goes from likely GOP to tossup.
If the GOP win all six of these races, they win the Senate. I’m not saying its impossible, but I put their odds at ~10%. There’s also the matter of defending their own seats, but unless a TP candidate manages a minor miracle to beat Mitch McConnel in the KY primary, I don’t think any of the red states will flip.
Some pundits are saying Al Franken (MN) is also vulnerable, but IMO that’s lazy; Franken has a dedicated money base and has improved his stature since his initial run in 2008. Plus the GOP hasn’t had much luck recruiting an opponent.
This is from HuffPo, last October: “Meet The 37 House Republicans Who Could Lose Their Jobs For Shutting Down The Government.” Will that still have any salience in November, do you think?
Not with the GOP on their best behavior lately. The polls have shifted dramatically.
I think the GOP will gain in both the senate and the House. It’s the governors races where I’m not sure they’ll hold. Democrats could gain a little there, and those are important positions given that many red states haven’t expanded Medicaid.
As a Tea Party supporter, I’m also a bit apprehensive about the comeback of establishment Republicans. Guys like Ed Gillespie represent everything that was wrong with the party. I’m all for more moderation, but I’m not for the old, “Reasonable Republicans are Republicans who we can buy with promises of pork” guys, or the K street guys. Fortunately, Mark Warner, one of the good guys IMO, will probably wipe the floor with Gillespie.
The Republicans still need to find themselves. We’re not supposed to be adjudicating these civil wars while in the majority. Democrats need to do a better job so we can settle this without the pressures of governing.
I agree with Adaher, Republicans will make gains in both houses. They might come close to taking the senate but won’t.
I think they will take the Senate, and as you know my predictions are always rock solid.
That’s kind of meta . . .
My prediction capabilities aside, the polls do look very good. If the election was held today, Republicans would have a very good chance to take the Senate. The GOP just has to either keep Kentucky or capture Colorado. If it were held today, that is.
They recruited Alex Sink. Strong candidate.
She was very nearly Governor; Rick Scott won by a whisker.
In 2010, every other republican in florida cruised to victory.
This article makes a compelling argument that Obama might actually have coattails and the Dems can win, or at least do much better than expected, by running on his record.