Any guesses or predictions on whether the filibuster will survive the next two years?
Democrats already scrapped it for lower-court nominations, and now Republicans have a chance to appoint a SCOTUS justice, but Democrats potentially have the votes to filibuster, if they want. Do you think Senate Dems will filibuster someone on the list of 20 that Trump promised to nominate from during the campaign? If so, do you think McConnell will go nuclear on the filibuster rule?
I believe the GOP can totally eliminate the filibuster on the first day of the new congressional session of they want.
I’m sure they will change the rules, but I’m not sure how or how much.
Correct; when the Senate votes to (re)adopt it’s rules when it first meets in January the GOP can reduce or totally eliminate the filibuster. But once it’s gone it’ll never be reinstated and the GOP won’t hold the majority forever.
Do you think, if the party’s roles were reversed in January, that the Democrats would keep the filibuster or eliminate it?
Honestly I think they would keep it.
Heh. You know what the beauty of the filibuster is?
Yeah, the Republicans have the White House, and the House of Representatives, and the Senate; and for years to come, they have a blank check, they’re the only game in town, insert third figure of speech here. So if anything doesn’t get addressed or accomplished at the federal level – well, who the heck can they blame?
“Hey, remember when the Democrats filibustered? Man, I hate those guys.”
That may well be too valuable to give up.
Also, a rule change itself can be filibustered.
Yes, but a nuclear option cannot.
The nuclear option is a parliamentary procedure in which the presiding officer rules that that the validity of a Senate rule is a constitutional question. That decision is not debatable; it is decided by majority vote.
This is how Harry Reid removed the filibuster in November 2013, with the chamber voting 52-48 to end it for appointment confirmations below the Supreme Court.
We had that chance already, and didn’t act on it. We knew that a situation like this could arise some day, and decided not to cut our own throats.
I’m pretty sure they only did lower-court nominations because they didn’t, at the time (November 2013), have a Supreme Court vacancy to fill.
ETA: in other words, yes you “had the the chance” but not any real need.
Just a curiousity for follow-up, in the lead-up to Harry Reid using the nuclear option, did you think it was likely that the Democrats would eliminate the filibuster for other judicial nominations? If so, why?
Ok, for some strange reason I thought the (52-48) vote to end it could’ve been filibustered as well. Wishful thinking I guess.