In 2000, Bush garnered a whopping nineteen percent of the Jewish vote, with 79 percent going to Al Gore. Four years later, he fared slightly better – 25 percent of the Jewish vote came his way. In swing state Florida, he made even bigger gains: he received twenty percent of the Jewish vote in 2004, up from twelve percent in 2000. Even that, though, was an overwhelming victory among Jewish voters for the Democrats.
Now, with Israel engaged in outright war, and with the American political Right arguably more engaged in supporting Israel than the Left is… will this translate into any recognizeable gains for the GOP at either the mid-term elections or the 2008 Presidential elections?
Probably too soon to do more than wildly speculate as to the 2008 Presidential election; it will undoubtly be more important who the actual candidates are than whether their political parties supported Israel.
But I can’t help wondering if it will have some influence – and whether the mid-terms will be affected at all.
Either the American Jewish voter is simply not that connected with Israel, not enough to be swayed away from other domestic issues that resonate more strongly… or not.
No, I don’t think it will, except maybe at the margins.
While American Jews (of which I’m one, FTR) pay attention to events in Israel I think for the majority of them it’s remote. FAR more influential on Jewish voters (at least the ones in my family) is the Republican Party’s affiliation with the conservative Christian groups. To a jew those people can be scary. There’s always that small voice in my head that says ‘sooner or later, if those people get power, they’ll be coming’.
A good part of the right’s support for Israel is based upon the notion of Armageddon and the End Times.
I don’t think that a lot of Jews are going to vote for people who think that Jesus’ return is imminent and that the Jews are going to be “Left Behind”.
You’ll notice that there’s been a lot of criticism from “the left” of the way Bush is handling the Israel/Lebanon crises, but how much of that is from actual Democratic Congressmen? AFAICT, none. The Democrats seem pretty much aligned with the administration in support of Israel, so I don’t see how things will change.
Less than 2% of the American population is Jewish. The Jewish vote, as such, will matter only in states with a substantial Jewish population – New York and Florida come to mind. Of course, the Jewish community has always exercised some public influence out of proportion to its numbers – especially WRT to Israel – because it’s very well organized, politically. (Oh, and of course they control all the banks, the media, the entertainment industry, the Freemasons, the Illuminati, the Jesuits, and as we all know they are the real driving force behind both capitalism and Communism. )
One thing I noted is that 70% of American Jews are against the war in Iraq. I think that if the Left also takes an anti-Iraq-war stance, that will trump any perception of lack of support for Israel.
I should point out, though, that I’m not seeing a “lack of support for Israel” on the American Left. At worst, I’m seeing a higher level of support for a ceasefire agreement on that side of the political spectrum, and a lot of that, I believe, is due to the fact that many people on the Left fear that the longer the war goes on, the worse the eventual blowback will be for Israel and possibly even the U. S.
Many of us in the Jew Tang Clan care about Israel, but many don’t. In addition traditonal concepts like tikun olam predispose many Jews to supporting so called ‘progressive’ causes. And, as already pointed out, the Religious Right is freakin’ scary.
The truth of the matter is that the (far) “Left” has been seen as being hostile to Israel and Israel’s security concerns for quite some time now. It hasn’t stopped most Jews from supporting them, however. I don’t think it will now.
In addition, fouled-up foreign ventures by this Administration (and acquiesced to by the Dems, let us not forget) will not help the G.O.P. make inroads into the Jewish vote.
Does the OP have any data to show that this is likely to change anytime soon?
Good points made above – especially that it may be overly simplistic to characterize “the Left,” here. Democratic congressmen not really abandoning support for Israel; the lack of support seems to be more in the pundit and commentator areas – and, of course, the mighty blogosphere.
I for one am getting a little tired of being told I don’t support Israel just because I think their current actions are going to hurt them in the long run. Is it only possible to support Israel blindly and unconditionally?
Don’t forget we control the bagel and schmear pipeline as well… ;j (thank goodness we have that smiley for just this occasion!)
Frankly, the political left has been down on Israel about the West Bank etc for so long that this criticism doesn’t feel much different to me.
I can be of two minds- far-left in politics and pro-Israel without breaking a sweat. And plus, far-left does not equal democrat, so I can very happily vote democratic and support Israel too.
It’s a concept that refers to repairing or healing the world, as mks57 points out, and finds expression in ideals that map very well to progressive/liberal causes and the Democrat’s traditional platofrm planks: social justice, equality, peace, liberty, and even environmental preservation.
I don’t think so. I believe that the majority of the Jewish community is aligned with the Left (or at least with the Democratic party…not the same thing), and that the issues that they feel most strongly about more than compensate for a lack of real or perceived (real IMHO) support by the left concerning Israel in the current crisis (or Israel in general, come to that).
So no…I don’t think this will substantially change the vote wrt the Jewish community in the next series of elections.
Let me get this one straight: if I don’t think that someone driving a truck into a brick wall is going to accomplish anything, and may make things worse, and just SAY SO (i.e. don’t attempt to forcibly stop) then apparently, I don’t support his right to exist. What?
I’m not a religious Jew by any stretch of the imagination, but even my friends and family members who are more observant than I am (which isn’t difficult) have been pretty sickened by the carnage and destruction in civilian-inhabited areas of Lebanon. Even those who are pretty blindly anti-Arab aren’t fond of the idea of needless civilian deaths. They may be by default pro-Israel for the most part, but I’d hope they are pro-humanity above all else.
Here is a lefty/progresive Jewish viewpoint regarding the current Israel/Lebanon conflict. Caveat lector: Rabbi Lerner is viewed by some more politically and /or theologically conservative sectors of the American Jewish community as something of a self-hating Jew/Palestinian sympathizer/lefty nutcase, take your pick. Personally, I think he’s got some points, even if I have no answers regarding how to get people to stop blowing each other up long enough to get to the negotiating table.
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