Not for the first time here, you’ve missed the point. Conservatives keep acting like all they have to do is knock Obama and the Democrats down and they’ll win by default. But it’s a relative not an absolute standard. It doesn’t matter how bad the Democrats look if the Republicans end up looking worse.
Are the Republicans looking worse though? They’ve got a shot at winning the Senate, I’d say that’s not half bad.
They also had a shot in the previous election. It did not turn out as the Republicans expected.
No it did not. But will Democrats show up with Obama not at the top of the ticket? They didn’t in 2010.
I’d be willing to bet that the Democrats will pick up seats in the House, and hold on to the Senate.
Once again, with many moderate Republicans also defeated by really blind tea partiers.
Really, denial of where their support came from in 2010 and denial of the damage they are doing is not conductive to more votes, it was not clear before but it is getting into the minds of even moderate young republicans, many conservatives in congress are really deep into woo woo.
Is that your strategy then? You have a chance of winning?
Presumably, the Republicans were trying to win the Senate in 2012. They didn’t. So what are they going to do differently in 2014?
It’s kind of the whole topic of the thread after all.
Have to share this. It was a user comment on an article in the Washington Post about Sarah Palin endorsing Rand Paul. It’s comments like this that give me reason to believe that the Democratic Party will be fine. If rank and file republicans think Sarah and Rand are the answer, the GOP will be in the wilderness for a very long time.
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Once again the Washedup Post proves to be the most lame organization in the media who continues to stream their tired old derision towards this fantastic American who outshines all of you in every respect and will one day be your President.
Mitt Romney would be in office today if he had not dissed Governor Palin and her 3,000,000 supporters. Minorities has zero to do with his loss no matter how hard the propaganda crew tries.
Chris Christie is politically dead to the rank and file independent conservative and not even losing 200 lbs will restore his reputation as a nothing but a pugnacious politician that masks his long list of failures with bravado.
Hillary won’t win either because the country has had enough of the Saul Alinsky disciples, their serial failures, and corrupt stench and incompetence.
Senator Ted Cruz and Governor Sarah Palin will be a constant threat to the cancer of regressive liberals.
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If both of those things happen, then it would be pretty obvious at that point that Republicans have a problem.
However, so far, Democrats are basing their predictions of victory on two elections with the same guy at the top of the ticket, and one who commands a unique legion of supporters who didn’t turn out for John Kerry or Al Gore or even Bill Clinton(Clinton was able to win independent voters, Obama failed to do that), and didn’t turn out in off-year elections(2010, 2009, and the special elections).
If they turn out with him not on the ticket, then I’ll start to panic. Or if independent voters start voting Democrat, I’ll panic. I believe, and history backs me, that the winner of the independent vote will win most elections. Obama had a unique coalition that enabled him to overcome that. Future candidates and the party itself without him at the top of the ballot will not be able to overcome that.
So the Democrats, in order to win in 2014 and beyond, either have to appeal more to independents, or get that coalition out to support the party in the absence of Obama.
Actually, forget 2014, we’ll get an early look at the Virginia race. Purple state, highly competitive election. I realize McCauliffe is very flawed, so it doesn’t say anything about Democratic prospects if he loses. but HOW he loses or wins will matter. If young and minority voters don’t vote, that’s a bad sign, even if he ekes out a victory.
It isn’t yet? 
on skewed polls?
They already do. Most of the people identifying as independents in the last election were former Republicans, and most of the former independents are now Democrats.
Then we should see Democrats win independents in 2014? That would be pretty big. In 2010 they lost independents 2-1.
Reread my last line.
They will after all this voter-ID and voter-suppression crap. Tell people you don’t want them voting, and they will.
Then maybe we should outlaw teaching people to read, might improve our schools.
Isn’t that one of the goals of the Republicans?
You want to talk about a flawed candidate? Ken Cuccinelli is a fruitcake and therein lies the problem for the GOP. Too much influence by the Tea Party gives a candidate who shouldn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell like McAliffe a better than 50/50 shot at winning. With all the mud-slinging and all the outside money, Terry is still polling +4.
I think this thread has demonstrated that there’s no point at which Republicans can’t explain away problems, no matter how obvious they are.
More people voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in five of the last six elections. The one exception was when the Republicans had an incumbent running. If the Democrats are confident about 2016, they at least have something to base it on.
That assumes a candidate of teh quality of a Clinton or Obama.
Anyway, looking at 2014, the answer to the OP’s question is “yes”:
**The scenario for next year is slightly different. It’s a midterm, where turnout is lower and the electorate is older and whiter than in general election years, and the president’s party is typically held accountable for the nation’s woes. In addition, ill-chosen GOP contenders gained so much negative national attention last time that safeguards against repeating the same mistakes have been practically built in to the recruitment and training of candidates.
Conservative outside groups that tend to cause a stir say they will try to be more unified in their backing of challengers. “We don’t want to split our support. Todd Akin squeaked by in his primary because Tea Party groups were divided, [leading to a] train wreck,” Matt Kibbe, president of the advocacy nonprofit FreedomWorks, told RCP.**
Read more: GOP's Senate Prospects Look Rosy, but Perils Lurk | RealClearPolitics
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And remember when I mentioned the job losses Obamacare is causing? Well, NBC news’ Lisa Meyers just gave it some national coverage:
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/08/if-youve-lost-nbc.php
Well, there’s no one of that quality yet visible in the Pub field.