Nope. Last I looked (about four or so days after the election), he was 10m down from 2008. If not, then I stand corrected.
About five million off right now for Obama, but these results are not final. Results four days after the election are ridiculously not final.
When and for what reason are two separate questions and do not work against one another. Just because a majority of Americans say abortion should be legal in the first trimester doesn’t mean they think it should always be legal in the first trimester. The fact of the matter is that most Americans are disapproving of the vast majority of abortions as they fall into lifestyle choices, or the types of abortions most people frown upon (ie, don’t want, can’t afford, want to continue career, etc.).
Unfortunately, Democrats are good throwing out this rape straw man (there was one in this thread about republicans supporting rape), though themselves will never consider meaningful restrictions in abortion. But it doesn’t matter, as I’ve said continuously, time is the Democrats worst enemy on abortion.
The questions weren’t that specific. They also asked whether respondents “approved” of the abortion- not whether they thought it should be legal or illegal. On abortion, the wording of the questions is incredibly important- there are plenty of people who might disapprove of an abortion in a certain circumstance but still don’t think it should be illegal. The Gallup poll also asked if respondents were satisfied with the nation’s current policies on abortion- 46% were at least somewhat dissatisfied (25% very dissatisfied), and 39% were at least somewhat satisfied (10% very satisfied), and 15% expressed no opinion. And 9% of those unsatisfied wanted abortion laws to be less strict (with another 9% of those dissatisfied wanting the law to remain the same, whatever that means). Adding that up means 48% were somewhat satisfied with abortion or wanted less strict abortion laws, and only 28% were unsatisfied and wanted stricter abortion laws. The wording of the questions is important.
I’m not claiming that the Democrats have some massive advantage on abortion- though I do think they have a small advantage. But you’re kidding yourself if you think the majority of the public favors the Republican party on abortion. The statistics show some confusion, but not very many people who want abortion laws to be stricter.
And I think the data doesn’t support this at all. The trends are not clear at all when the questions are specific- that Gallup poll shows about the same amount of people want stricter abortion laws now as they did 10 years ago.
You’re way, way wrong if you think there’s clear evidence that abortion is trending towards Republicans. It doesn’t appear to be trending in any direction at all. If it’s just your opinion that the public view will change towards Republicans, then maybe you’re right, but I don’t see clear evidence that that’s the case.
If abortion is trending towards Republicans, wouldn’t that have meant that the guys running for office who made their positions quite clear and unambiguously would have had an advantage?
Yet, Akin lost despite being in a red state. As did Mourdock. Joe Walsh had momentum and a 13-to-1 advantage in SuperPAC money, but then he said women don’t die from childbirth anymore to justify his view that exceptions to a woman’s health is not a good reason for abortion and he lost as an incumbent.
There are three people who touted what you claim is a Republican advantage, two in Republican states that voted for Romney in the past election. And they all lost.
Can you explain why, if they are on the “winning side” of this debate, they couldn’t win here?
If you think an issue is a winner for your side, you’d certainly think that talking about the winning issue would be to your advantage. Yet, Omg thinks that Democrats used abortion to their advantage, almost as if abortion is a winner for the Democrats.
Gosh, what a puzzle.
I’m still trying to wrap my head around this though.
Republicans author and enact more laws against reproductive choice than ever before after an election cycle that they swept into state offices and the US Congress.
Democrats in the very next election cycle say “That’s not cool. We won’t do that.”
And that is proof that it is actually the Democrats who are beating the abortion drum, not the Republicans? That is why this thread title is ironic?
Amazing.
And OMG continues his masterful interpretation of polling data.
:rolleyes:
Let’s play (not that it will make much difference).
First and foremost, there’s a very important group you are ignoring–people under 30. I have pointed this out multiple times, but age is positive in its association with abortion approval, meaning older persons are MORE approving of abortion than are younger persons. I’ve gone over it [here](http:// /sdmb/showpost.php?p=14307556&postcount=147). Whereas the youngest age group used to be the most supportive of abortion, they are now the least supportive. That is not a positive development for abortion supporters.
With that being said, did you even click on the link? Gallup specifically asked if abortion should be legal or illegal in specific instances and reported the trend. In almost every case, Americans have become less supportive of abortion over time. Whether you want to acknowledge it or not, that is significant and more than likely a function of people who hold anti-abortion views coming of age and those more supportive dying off. Now you are free to disagree but I want some cites if you do.
I await your response. As I said, time will eventually catch up to the Democratic party in regards to abortion.
Stupid broken link.
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14307556&postcount=147
Because being on the “right” side doesn’t mean you can say whatever and win. I find it hard to believe that was a serious question.
Yeah, cause it’s the old that are so supportive of abortion and the ‘coming of age’ who aren’t! Seriously what colour is the sky in your world?
The oldest people are the least supportive of abortion- when they die, overall abortion support will go up. The age group that is most supportive of abortion is the one I’m in, apparently- age 30-49. The youngest age group may be less supportive than this one (though more supportive of abortion than the oldest age group, according to this), but I see no indication that young people want to overturn Roe vs Wade, or enact other laws to restrict abortion. Support for overturning Roe vs Wade is pretty damn small- about 30% or so.
The only realistic way Roe vs Wade is overturned is by big changes in the supreme court, which would require a Republican President.
No it hasn’t- it’s bounced around considerably over time. It may be a bit lower now than at a particular time in the past, but it’s also higher in the latest poll than in other particular times. Your analysis of polls is terrible.
I disagree for a few reasons- first, the differences by age aren’t that large. And I see no evidence a majority (or even a plurality) of young people want to overturn Roe vs Wade or enact more restrictive abortion laws. Abortion support, overall, is likely to go up as the oldest generation right now dies. It may go down a bit when the next oldest generation dies off, but I see nothing to indicate the massive change in opinion that would cause a majority to want to overturn Roe vs Wade.
Do you put right in quotation marks because you are using “right” as in morally right or are we still talking about right as in the more popular side.
Because one is an opinion and the other has been proven to be wrong.
Either way, it’s hard to believe that’s a serious assertion.
There are people who defended those politicians. They did not lose by 60 points. Apparently what they said was not so repugnant as to make them completely unelectable in the eyes of the electorate.
They didn’t say “I eat toddlers” and still get 40+% of the voters on their side. They didn’t say “I hate niggers” and still be competitive. To dismiss what they said as saying “whatever” as if it was so incendiary shows me that you lost perspective on things.
To a sizable minority (I concede sizable, it would be smart if you finally conceded minority) the words those guys said were not “whatever.” What they said appeals to the Republican core and social conservatives. But as polls show when it comes to issues and as the Presidential election showed, that’s a dying constituency.
You can click your heels together and say “there’s no place like home” all you want, but you ain’t going nowhere, OMG. That’s just the way things are, Sorry it bugs you.
If it bugs Republicans losing elections, maybe they should stop passing restrictive laws regarding abortion.
Hey OMG, remember that election we had about 2 weeks ago? Remember how utterly wrong Republicans were on believing how that would go? Remember that feeling of being shellshocked at the results, expecting them to have been a complete 180, and yet we’re here now, preparing for Obama’s inauguration? Maybe stop reading the conservative blogs about how abortion’s such a winning issue for the GOP. Maybe pick up the New York Times, who had a guy on staff that went 50/50 on state predictions and called pretty much every senate race, and then read the NYT and believe everything they tell you because, you know, its the truth.
Abortion is a losing issue for the GOP, especially when you have idiots like Akin, Mourdock, and Paul Ryan who thinks that nobody should be able to get an abortion for any reason. According to the truth (ie. the New York Times), plenty of people want abortion legal even if they have reservations about some of it, even if they can be scared by words like “fetal pain” or “late-term abortion”. The country, again according to reliable sources like the New York Times, wants abortion to be legal.
First and foremost, my posts do contain cites for a reason. If you’re going to ignore them, then it’s a waste of my time to post them. The fact that you would link to something I already linked to leads me to believe you didn’t read anything I posted. Anyway, between the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s, you saw a broad based increase in abortion support, especially among seniors. Since then, it has receded. So there is your “bump”, though I’m sure that’s of no consequence to you. But moving on, I just gave you three cites which either state that younger Americans are either less supportive of abortion than their elders or more likely than their elders to say abortion should be mostly or always illegal, yet you want to insist you see no evidence to support the theory that they would like to, as you put it, overturn RvW? Hmmm… I’m not sure what to say here. There are multiple papers/books written detailing abortion views by age and even readily accessible GSS days you can view. At this point-- which is why I simply stopped arguing this-- you’re engaging in wilful ignorance. I suppose this is why I never get cites showing the contrary.
And?
Now I know you’re not reading anything. Taken directly from Gallup (Legal/illegal)
Rape:
1996: 77/18
2011: 75/22
Mentally impaired baby:
1996: 54/36
2011: 51/46
Physically impaired baby
1996: 53/37
2011: 50/45
Protect mother’s mental health
1996: 66/27
2011: 61/35
Protect mother’s physical health
1996: 82/11
2011: 82/15
Mother’s life in danger
1996: 88/7
2011: 83/13
Can’t afford
1996: 32/62
2011: 36/61
Since 1996, only in the last case has support gone up. Otherwise it has fallen, and sometimes precipitously. So what are YOU reading?
Ummm… RvW is almost 40 years old. How many over 60s from 1973 are still alive? Very few. You do realize that we’ve already seen that bump (about 20 years ago), which is even noted by Gallup.
Oh, before I forget. I’m not so sure where you live to be able to describe a 30 - 50% increased likelihood of saying abortion should be illegal as when compared to one’s elders as not differing that much.
This judging America’s feelings by reading Gallup, how’s that workin’ out for ya?
Gallup was one of the least accurate polls during the election, and had major issues in the last election as well. How about you cite a credible source, like something from the New York Times?
You seem the one who’s not reading your own cites. In this one, which we’ve both linked to, the very first graph shows abortion views by age, from the 70s to 2009. Look at the colors for each age group. The youngest age group is the dark green line, the oldest is the light green line. The oldest age group shows the lowest support for legalized abortion (with no restrictions). All the other age groups are about 8-12 points higher. This poll shows that older Americans disapprove of abortion more than younger Americans.
You’re not reading your own cites, or you’re misinterpreting them. As I just showed (in your own cite), the youngest age group approves of legal abortion more than the oldest.
These differences are tiny- they say almost nothing at all. My point was that it has not been a clear drop- it has gone up and down and up and down again, and it happens to be slightly lower now that at a particular time in the past- but it’s also higher now than at other times in the past.
Where is the 30-50% increased likelihood? I don’t see it anywhere. At the time of the latest poll, older people disapproved of abortion more than younger people. Once again, you’re not reading your own cites (or ignoring the parts that don’t fit with your narrative). From here: support for a Constitutional amendment to ban abortion (except to save the life of the mother) has gone down, from 50% to 37% since 1984.
These are from your own cites. To sum up, from your cite (this one and this one, to refresh memories), old people approve of abortion less than young people and support for a Constitutional amendment to ban abortion has gone down.
I await your response.