Though I’m not much of a gambling man, I do like the ponies, or at least watching them. I think my love of the sport of kings comes from my dad, another non gambler who liked horse racing bet or no bet. I remember vividly watching Secretariets amazing 3 in a row sitting next to him during every race.
Even more so, I remember my father, a very strong man, coming close to tears when Ruffian broke it’s leg while racing Foolish Pleasure. “That horse. That beautiful, beautiful animal. This is horrible” Were his exact words. They were very haunting.
And, I remember the last time a horse won all three races of the triple crown. I was 17, and single. None of my children were born yet. Now I’m 41, married, and have 3 kids, 16,19, 21. None of them know the glory of watching the history of a triple crown win.
I wish for them to see one. My oldest is really reved up about it.
Sorry to say, I don’t think it’s going to happen. I think War Emblem (I love that name by the wayWAR EMBLEM! ) is going to run out of gas in the stretch at Belmaont. Oh, it’ll finish in the money, but not first.
What do you think? And do you give a darn about the triple crown.
I care! I live about 15 minutes from that “Grand Dame” of all reacetracks, Saratoga. I love horse racing. The best time of year around here is during the “August Meet” at Saratoga.
War Emblem is a strikingly beautiful creature and I hope he runs away with it.
Watching the Preakness, I was impressed with how War Emblem could stay ahead of the second horse. Every time the second (was it Medaglia d’Oro?) made a move, War Emblem found a little bit of reserve to take the lead.
Whether War Emblem can stay on for the mile-and-a-half at Belmont is anybody’s guess though. I’d like to see him do it–like you, pkbites, I saw the last Triple Crown winner through a 17-year-old’s eyes, and I know the upsets that can occur–but until I see the past performances of all horses in my copy of the DRF before the race, I won’t back anybody, including War Emblem.
It’s gonna be a good race though. One for the ages, perhaps.
Ooh! Ooh! Horse racing thread! I’m so excited. I tried to post to this this morning, before work, and the board was having one of its C-R-A-W-L-I-N-G moments. 'Twasn’t possible.
Anywho, my initial instinct is to say “No.” My reasons are somewhat unromantic and in some respects unscientific, but it’s mainly because it just hasn’t been done in 24 years. There have been 7 horses who’ve come to the Belmont ready to claim the Crown since 1978, and all have failed (some, like Alysheba, failed badly…others, like Charismatic, broke down in the process). Statistically, raw statisically, I say no. Of course, I would love to see a Triple Crown; I was 5 when Affirmed won the last and have had my heart broken repeatedly since my preteen years waiting for the next winner.
Now, my more careful (or at least thoughtful) analysis is ultimately undecided. There is a fairly compelling argument for War Emblem:
** He ran the 2nd fastest last quarter in the last 30 years in the Kentucky Derby**–2nd only to freak machine Secretariat. This is more impressive to me than final times, particularly when you consider War Emblem’s on-pace running style. This stat suggests War Emblem contains some of the freaky speed talent the Crown winners have displayed.
War Emblem’s attitude. Everything I’ve been reading at The Daily Racing Form and The Blood Horse has described him as anything but tired since his Preakness win. He’s aggressive, energized, and acting out–the grind of the last 2 months is not yet evident in him.
War Emblem’s recent flexibility. His newly learned ability to rate (as he did behind the longshot Menacing Dennis in the Preakness) was an extremely important lesson for him–even if Espinoza had to practically choke him to keep him back. His PPs in the DRF showed that previously, in every race he was challenged at the lead (either leadingonly by a 1/2, or running 2nd), he lost. He must learn to throttle that speed–particularly if he’s going to carry it over 1 1/2 miles.
Main challenges and concerns:
Totally irrevelvant and unscientific, but I can’t stand Baffert and I’m not becoming much of a fan of the Prince, either.
The chips in War Emblem’s ankles and knee. Baffert says the legs are cool and show no sign of pain or inflammation, but it just makes me wonder if they’re not playing Russian roulette every time they send him out. There’s a reason the horse never sold, despite several interests, before the Prince bought him sight unseen–and without bothering with a vet exam. I’m worried this Crown could end with a disastrous result.
** The pace.** After seeing his style, I can almost guarantee someone, or perhaps someones, will send out a rabbit in the Belmont to try to cook War Emblem early. At that distance, War Emblem can’t afford it.
Ultimately…I lean toward no. But–of all the recent almost Triple Crown winners, I see him as having one of the best shots, if not the most intriguing.
BTW–of those who almost won the Triple Crown, but didn’t, who do you think should have been a winner? Or, at the least, who was the one you felt at the time was most certain to take it? My thoughts go to Point Given and Sunday Silence.
I’m with you, though, Ruffian. Baffert just grates me to no end, and I’m thinking that he’s put way too much of his pride into the horse and would run him even if it wasn’t in the horse’s best interest.
He does seem to have a whole lot of run in his tank, though (almost got caught at the Preakness - if it had lasted a few more furlongs I think he would have been passed). He also has the spirit - I believe it was Baffert who said that he wouldn’t turn his back to the him - and I think War Emblem’s been known to bite.
I certainly hope he does it - and I wish I had purchased him for $17,000.
That was Seattle Slew that sold for $17K (as a yearling). War Emblem was sold to the Prince (well, 90% of him–the original owner still has a 10% share of him) for $900,000. Still a great deal, though!
Did you happen to notice that his winning distance was a very fast shortening 3/4 length? A faster last quarter was run by Magic Weisner. This is the result from an “honest pace” in the race.
Had this race been the Derby 10 furlong distance, War Emblem would have been a not-too-close 2nd. Since the Belmont is 3 furlongs past the Preakness distance, I am not alone having serious doubts whether War Emblems front-running style can hold.
His attitude may be his downfall too. His inability to rate for any distance is a problem for a 12 furlong race. You made that point in your #3. Espinoza’s efforts were largely unheaded by War Emblem - note how he dragged Victor to the lead while Espinoza was still wanting him to rate.
I’d still prefer this pair to D.Wayne.
AMEN. These chips aren’t tiny fragments, they’re of significant size to dissuade previous buyers. The Prince had seen the horse run and also the results of his recent vetting by other prospective buyers including the X-rays, as did Baffert. This isn’t like a runner with loose cartilege in a knee. Bone chips can and have caused lethal breakdowns, and not just to the horse, either.
I have serious objections to a trainer putting a horse with known chips, and chips in both knees and at least one ankle, on a track, especially after the vets all said they’d need to come out.
I also lean toward no. I didn’t consider Point Given or Sunday Silence “most certain”. Last year, I tossed out PG after seeing the Churchill’s track for the early races. Point Given was too big to handle it well. I was an Easy Goer fan (and still am a Shug McGuehey fan) and felt sure the colt would take care of business.
My “should have” award goes to A.P. Indy. The colt was injured and had to sit out the Derby & Preakness, but came back and not only blew apart the field in the Belmont, but won Horse of the Year. I believe had he been sound enough to race, he’d have taken the crown.
I tried to post to this this morning, before work, and the board was having one of its C-R-A-W-L-I-N-G moments. 'Twasn’t possible.