This thread assumes that there’s a much better than even chance that any effort at health care reform is dead. This is a common assertion that I’ve seen in multiple threads and places, and I thought I’d examine that belief.
Do you think we’ll have any form of health care reform in the next three years? The next eight? The next sixteen?
The aforementioned thread also proceeds with the assumption that it’s a grave blow to the current Presidential administration, and perhaps by extension, both Democrats and liberals in general. Again, this is a fairly common belief on the conservative/Republican side of the aisle. What are your thoughts? Whether you believe there’s a zero chance of HCR in the near future or not, what do you think will happen as a result that might change or reinforce whatever initial blame goes around?
The strategy going around now is to pass the Senate bill in the House and then fix all the problems with the Senate bill through reconciliation later.
The prospects of this seem dim because the clear message from recent Democratic defeats is that voters do not what the deficit to go higher. I don’t know if Obama can sell voters on the idea that the Health Care bill won’t increase the deficit.
I think that unless the Democrats figure out a way to convince voters that they are fiscally responsible they are going to suffer a big defeat in November. The problem is that it’s independents that want fiscal responsibility, and are the ones that need to be convinced that the health care bill won’t raise the deficit. But if health care doesn’t pass then Democrats will become unpopular with their own party and some of the more liberal independents.
So the health care bill is in the hands of the House now, unless Obama can convince one or two Republicans to come on board.
Whether it passes or not, the Democrats aren’t looking good heading into November. If there is no bill by then then we can forget about UHC for a while.
Actually, recent polls seem to indicate that while the size of the deficit is a concern for voters, it’s not the top concern. According to this survey from last month, 61% of respondents think it’s “extremely important” for the president to deal with the economy, 58% feel the same about unemployment, and only 46% thing it’s “extremely important” to tackle the federal budget deficit.
People generally don’t approve of the results (or lack thereof) that Obama and the Democrats are producing, and the lousy shape things are still in. But their priorities don’t seem to be focused on deficit reduction as much as you suggest.
A mid-December poll found that in response to the question “Which do you think should be more important for the Obama administration? Reducing the deficit, even if it might slow down economic recovery. Stimulating economic recovery, even if it might mean less deficit reduction”, only 40% chose deficit reduction as opposed to 57% who wanted stimulus. Moreover, when asked “Which do you think should be more important for the Obama administration? Reduce deficit even if unemployment remains high. Create more jobs even if it means less deficit reduction,” only 24% prioritized deficit reduction while 75% plumped for more jobs.
I agree that since a lot of people voted for the Democrats a year ago looking for change from the catastrophic results of Republican policies, they’re naturally going to be peeved at the Democrats for producing less change than they wanted and may take it out on them in the voting booth. Still, it doesn’t seem that voters are letting Republicans off the hook either. In mid-January, in response to the question “Who do you blame more for the current condition of the U.S. economy: former President George W. Bush or President Barack Obama?”, 55% said Bush and 20% said Obama (14% neither, 7% both). Likewise, 39% of respondents thought Republicans were more responsible for current economic problems, while 32% thought Democrats were more responsible and 25% said both.
I think there will be *some *sort of health care reform legislation passed. At least, that’s what they’ll call it. Politicians being politicians, they will hammer together *something *that can justify the label, letting them all go home and beat their chests about doing “the people’s work.”
Will it be good or bad? Will it make a difference? I don’t think they really care. They just want bragging rights, and they will get them, one way or another…TRM
That’s the way it’s being spun by the Right; they always claim that the Democrats are fiscally irresponsible; ( a truly ridiculous accusation coming from them ). As a counter to that, there is the argument that the message is that if the Democratic base and the independents who swung their way when Obama got in don’t see the Democrats try to pass real reform, they’ll just not bother to vote.
As for what I think will happen; the Democrats are corrupt, and cowards. We aren’t likely to see meaningful reform until a general collapse of the system, and the present Democratic leadership is voted down by their own base in anger over their inability to govern. Before things degenerate to that point, at most, we’ll get some fake reform that will just be a handout to corporate America.
I think the biggest effect will be that 45% of political ads this fall will feature one party gripping about the other’s role in passing no or a very weak bill. Dens will blame the other side for hamstringing the bill; Pubs will lambast the other side for wanting to increase the debt by 900B during a recession blah blah blah.
Unfortunately, I’m being sincere because I seriously doubt that anything that will lower cost or benefit anyone but the insurance industry is forthcoming in any bill that actually has a shot of being passed.
The problem is that new Republicans can still make that claim. If you are voter who is upset at the current Democrats for fiscal irresponsibility then what should you do? Your best choice is to vote for his Republican challenger who wasn’t around during the Bush years and hope somebody gets the message.
This is what I worried about. Real reform takes time, especially in this political climate. There isn’t really a progressive labor movement going on right now like their was in the 1930’s. Without any public outcry change comes slowly to Washington. Yet the voters might be impatient come November and vote out Democrats because nothing has been done. Then we would have to rely on Republicans to play ball. The GOP has pushed themselves so far to the right that anyone who helps Obama risks getting a primary challenge. It’s unlikely that Obama will get anything out of them before this November and the only chance of them compromising is if the voters send them a message during the mid-terms.
The only thing that might be getting traction from the people is a populist movement against banks. Yet no one is really tapping into that. It’s a shame.
I disagree. Some of them really care. But politics is the business of being re-elected. If they can not raise money, they can not run. The anti health care pols will get a crap
load of money to destroy it. With the Supreme Court ruling it will get uglier than ever.