In his first year, as Trump’s supporters will gleefully tell you, he:
- Nominated Gorsuch to the Supreme Court
- Signed a bunch of executive orders deregulating business/industry
- Passed a tax cut
Only one of those, of course, was a law that worked its way through congress.
Now, he’s in year 2. I hear a lot of pundits predict that not much should be expected from Congress this year, since it’s an election year. Plus, Trump isn’t focused enough to have a particular legislative agenda. Even if he did, he manages to regularly distract from the business of government with his own feuds and tantrums. Laws on dreamers and border security are great examples of this.
If November results in the Republicans losing the House (not a guarantee, but certainly not unrealistic, given historic trends and Trump’s unique take on presidential behavior), I imagine that the last 2 years of Trump’s term will be spent publicly airing the Russia evidence. No more secret committees; we will get televised hearings. No more worry about whether Mueller is allowed to do his job; he’ll get all the support he needs from House Democrats, who would now steer the intelligence committees.
Maybe those Democrats would get ideas like trying to pass a liberal bill (like immigration reform or infrastructure). But, I can’t see petulant Trump signing anything the opposition would like, and I can easily imagine Republican backlash leading to more gridlock.
In other words, it seems entirely likely to me that, except for the tax cut passed in his first year, Trump will be up for re-election with no other legislative achievements worth mentioning (renaming some random post office doesn’t count).
Is this ridiculous? Am I missing other important laws he’s signed? Is it inevitable that he’ll do more things with congress?
How would this compare to other administrations? I’m too young to really remember (being born in '78), but Carter is always mentioned as very ineffectual.
Is Trump like Carter, minus the good nature?
(And, just to add, I realize that there is a whole lot Trump can do in international politics - Carter had the Camp David accords, after all - including huge victories or disasters with the Koreans or Iranians that would be hugely impactful on history. I’m more curious about what sort of legislative accomplishments he’ll be trying to boast about when he’s trying to get re-elected in 2020).