If we want to see an example of how Trump’s end could play out over the course of 4-8 years, maybe the example of Silvio Berlusconi is worth analyzing. Like Trump, a billionaire with a background in entertainment. An unconventional right-wing populist. Someone who uses divisions among people and polarization to win elections because he knows that the moment people of all stripe begin to figure out they’re paying a price for his corruption, it’s over. And someone who almost from day one was involved in some sort of political and legal scandal. In Berlusconi’s case, he was accused of everything from financial crimes to sexual assault. A political novice initially, he learned how to master the complex political arena because it was essential to do so for his survival. He soon realized that the courts and the legal system were a different animal and were perpetually a challenge to his authority, which is why he perpetually railed against the courts, claiming they were politically motivated and out to get him. He claimed his opponents were communists and enemies of the people. Eventually, the law and his own incompetence caught up with him. People saw that he was failing to do with a looming financial crisis, which finally made people care a lot more about his legal problems, which caught up with him as well once he was driven from office.
That’s ultimately how I see Trump’s end. A recession will begin to chip away at his base and make those who are indifferent more vocally opposed to him. Trump and his die-hard supporters will claim that the courts and the duty-bound civil servants are conducting a witch-hunt, and that they’re anti-American. He’ll encourage political activists, including some of the more aggressive NRA types, to harass and threaten their political opponents. But eventually, he will succumb to his own declining popularity and he will begin losing supporters in congress.
Missed the edit window but wanted to add that in the end, he’ll probably stand trial either in federal or state court for financial crimes like tax evasion, which is far short of what he probabyl should be convicted for but it’ll be probably all the government has. He’ll probably have a 50/50 chance of serving a 1-2 year sentence, which might be further reduced to probation. But he could get off completely. All the while, a good 25-30% of the country will think Trump is a martyr and the rest of the country will probably despise him. And who knows, maybe in 30-40 years, a new generation takes out the volume of the encylcopaedia that deals with the Trump chapter, dusts it off, and retells it all in a more favorable light, as if to suggest that the people of his era got him wrong and didn’t appreciate his true genius. That’s kinda where I see this.
While there are certainly some similarities between Berlusconi and Trump, Berlusconi has much more of breezy cheeky chappie personality, and lacks the sociopathic malevolence that is a defining trait of Trump’s character. I find it hard to imagine Berlusconi as a cult leader or as someone who would foment political violence. Here’s a list of controversies surrounding Berlusconi, and the closest thing to violence is Berlusconi himself being hit in the face with an alabaster statuette of Milan Cathedral.
Although I hasten to point out that we don’t know anything yet, one of the witnesses in Berlusconi’s sexual assault case, died under very mysterious circumstances and claims she was poisoned. It’s obviously not conclusive whether she was poisoned, and if so, by whom. But Berlusconi’s dalliances with criminal enterprise are eerily reminiscent of Trump. And many powerful men will kill to keep themselves free, even when they are not necessarily instinctively programmed to do so by their nature or temperament.
What I go back to with Trump is that he is a rich man, a powerful man, and someone who has his back to the wall legally and, consequently, financially as well. When people like Trump go into survival and defense mode, they came at their opponents with venom and viciousness that often catches their targets by surprise.
He will eventually be driven from power because people will get tired of him - even his supporters will eventually tire of his twitter feed. But I suspect that he’ll leave a lot of residual and may remain in the background for sometime after his ouster.
Former two-time Peruvian President Alan García shot and killed himself today as police arrived to arrest him on charges of money laundering and taking bribes. Desperate people can take desperate measures. I feel sure that Trump would put other peoples lives on the line before his own.