Will Trump release his tax returns? I say no. Will he release a tax summary 1-7 days before the election? Who cares? Will he release 10 years of his tax returns before the last debate? It’s hard to imagine that.
Past threads: From May 2016, The Mystery of Trump’s Tax Returns. Someone noted that candidates have released their returns since around 1952, though I’ve since read that Gerald Ford only released a tax summary.
Here are copies of tax returns releasd by Presidential candidates. Obama has released 16 years to date beginning in 2000, Biden released 18 years, Jeb Bush released 34 years, W released 8 years beginning in 2000, Cheney released 8 years beginning in 2000, etc. (“For tax year 2001, both President Bush and Vice President Cheney released partial returns. For tax year 2000, Bush released only his Form 1040; Cheney provided a summary of his taxes, but released no forms.”)
[INDENT][INDENT][INDENT] "Every other candidate in this race, Hillary Clinton, Mike Pence, and Tim Kaine have all released 10 years of their personal tax returns. Tax returns are an important mechanism of transparency showing how a person makes their money, who and where it comes from, what organizations they are affiliated with and who they give money to. This is an important way for our highest office seekers to build trust with the American public.
At this point, given the publicity Trump’s tax returns have received, you really have to wonder why he isn’t willing to release them. Our challenge is for him to release 10 years of tax returns before the final Presidential debate on October 19th. The reason the deadline is so the American public can be given the time to review the tax returns and question Trump about them at the final debate if they so choose." [/INDENT][/INDENT][/INDENT]
If Trump releases 10 years of returns, sixtimesyour donation, (up to a total of $1 million in donations) will be divided between 10 Veterans organizations. If Trump does not (highly likely in my view), you will owe nothing. Donations now total over $200,000, bringing total pledges above $1.2 million to the veterans if Trump does the right thing.
Thread: Trump’s Taxes/Obama’s records
How confident are you of your opinion? This is a one sided bet of course: if you are correct nothing happens. But if you lose (and Trump releases 10 years of returns before the last debated on Oct 19) then your bet will be directed to Veteran’s organizations.
Those who believe that Trump will release 10 years of his tax returns like the other candidates have are invited to explain their reasoning.
Not voluntarily. At the very least, it shows that he pays zero in taxes and gives zero to charity. This would assuredly siphon enough votes away from him.
I think he might, but in the very final moments. And he will release everything - creating a huge glut of information. So that no one has time to evaluate and comment, but he can say he did it.
Back in January Trump announced a very detailed medical report. He promised the same before his Dr. Oz appearance. Trump could package a statement by his tax lawyer in a similar way. Tax lawyers are advocates and Trump can probably find an analogue to his gastroenterologist.
Except that I suspect that Trump doesn’t want discussion of the details of his finances before or after election day. He is not a successful businessman, but he plays one on TV. It is intrinsic to his brand that he be perceived as the best and flashiest wealth czar.
Will release nothing. People solidly against Trump think it’s a big deal he hasn’t, but no evidence persuadables do.
Who can argue from POV of Trump/advisers it helps Trump to release anything, based on what a non-factor this appears to have been so far and the basic negatives most people figure are there and IMO highly likely are (low reported income for a ‘multi-billionaire’, low/zero tax rates, stingy charitable giving) besides possible bad surprises. I can’t see that argument. Therefore why expect it?
He will release something that he claims is his tax returns, but which will actually just be some random numbers scribbled on the back of a TGI Fridays placemat in green crayon by his accountant. And he’ll proudly say that this proves that he pays the best taxes, and that nobody in history has ever paid taxes as well as he has.
I don’t think he can even manage a half-assed release. Unlike his health report, a note from his accountant saying that this is the best most awesome tax return ever, isn’t going to cut it. Even a half assed return has to have a bottom line indicating how much he paid in taxes. Given that he has probably played the real estate game of under valuing his properties when it comes to taxes and claiming deductions for depreciation on properties that actually gained value. So chances are he has probably paid zero taxes. This is not going to go over well with his constituency who already think that they are getting shafted by the system, and think that only lazy negro parasites don’t pay taxes.
It’s possible that the media demand for them will swell to a crescendo, and Camp Trump will fear that it cuts into their earned media bandwidth on other themes. If that happens, they will release something to appease the media, which needn’t be much. The equivalent of the doctor’s letter will do.
It’s not going to convince you, but it’ll satisfy the Trumpists - who really do believe he’s the healthiest human who ever walked the Earth - and low information voters, which is most people.
You simply can’t think in terms of details when it comes to this stuff. Think in terms of headlines. If Trump can get the headline TRUMP RELEASES TAX INFORMATION most people read no further; what follows could be five hundred words of “and it appears to be complete bullshit” and it won’t matter. People will see the headline and think “well, he came clean” and that’s it.
It would be a reasonably effective distraction if done sufficiently late in the election; I fully expect he’ll release a half-assed “statement” within a few days of a particularly withering attack from Clinton about this in the debates, but not after Debate 1; it’ll be after Debate 2 or 3, close enough to Election Day to postpone releasing anything meaningful.
Voted for “Never gonna give them up.” I think Trump’s refusal to release his returns has done most of the damage it’s going to. Certainly less damage than he thinks will occur if he does release them. He clearly wanted to get it out of the way early on, so people would have time to forget about it. Even if the IRS completes their audits, Trump will just make up another excuse; it will still hurt him less than actually releasing them.
The only scenario I see where he releases his returns is some analog of the birther refusal press conference. If Trump decides he needs to release the returns (or do a token gesture to get the press off his back), he’ll build suspense and then try to leverage it into more free coverage, while releasing the bare minimum. If that happens, I hope the press has learned their lesson and refuses to cover it. But since the networks refused the reporters’ request to stop covering the birther conference, they’d probably still swallow their pride and give Trump what he wants.
Any number of things could be looked back at as significant if someone wins by a nose. But the question wasn’t whether Trump would be better off with tax returns everyone agrees are ‘beautiful’ and he can proudly show, but whether he’s better off to release the ones he actually has. I don’t see how, and I don’t think he’s surrounded by dumb or tone deaf people who would think so.
Some posts are imagining a crescendo of media pressure which forces him to, but where is that going to come from now and why? Perhaps Clinton can revive it as a big story via some very clever/dramatic exchange in the debates, but more likely the issue stays on the margin.
The health analogy is irrelevant in my view. Trump disclosed as he did as an offensive tactic to keep candidate health in the spotlight. Pro-Clintons are understandably frustrated by it, but that issue either cuts against Clinton or is neutral. She was the one seen collapsing on video not Trump, potentially neutralized by the likely underlying fact that both are relatively healthy for their ages. Releasing his taxes would probably cut against him relative to what stonewalling has cost or is likely to, so he won’t.