If Russia invades Ukraine – which seems almost inevitable – Biden has promised to retaliate with extreme sanctions. (NATO allies appear willing to join us.) Biden has acknowledged that these sanctions may hurt our economy as well.
And I’m thinking, so much for his presidency … and kiss any chance of keeping a Dem congressional majority good-bye, too.
We all know presidents and parties get voted out when the economy’s bad. If sanctions against Russia trigger a downturn or a recession, people aren’t going to say, “Well, it’s a worth a little short-term sacrifice to punish Russia.” No, they’re going to say, “Fuckin’ Biden screwed up the economy.”
(And by “people” I don’t mean MAGATs who are already saying that. I mean moderates of both sides who might vote blue this fall if they feel like Biden’s doing a good job.)
I don’t know enough about the proposed sanctions to guess what their impact might actually be. So I really have two questions:
How badly will Biden’s proposed sanctions hurt our economy?
Will that impact lead to a red wave in November and cripple the Dems’ chance of retaining the White House in 2024?
Wartime presidents historically see a boost to their approval ratings. This could be just the thing the Democrats need to hold on to Congress and the White House.
I found this NYT article (sorry, I don’t know how to do the whole gift thing) that’s mostly about how crippling the sanctions will be for Russia.
But it does say:
For now, though, American officials are not considering any immediate sanctions on the foundation of Russia’s economy: its oil and gas exports.
European nations rely on natural gas from Russia, and several U.S. allies, notably Germany, prefer that Washington refrain from disrupting the Russian energy industry. Analysts say sanctions that limit Russia’s ability to export oil and gas would be by far the most powerful weapon against the Russian economy, and perhaps the most effective economic deterrent against an invasion of Ukraine, but they would also cause pain in Europe and the United States.
“At some point, the West will have to sacrifice a little bit of its well-being if the goal is to deter Putin,” said Maria Snegovaya, a visiting scholar at George Washington University and an author of the Atlantic Council report.
“U.S. inflation further constrains the administration’s actions,” she added. “Inflation is already unprecedented for the last 30 years. Any action against Russia that is dramatic will lead to changes in oil and gas prices.”
(bolding mine)
So, let’s assume we do eventually sanction gas and oil exports. Pump prices spike and stay high. With all the economic consequences that might domino from there, how does that hurt the economy and Dems’ electability?
In 2020 the percentage of of imported oil that came from Russia was at a record high of…7 percent. Since about 75% of our oil is “home grown”, what is 7% of 25%? I think we can handle any lack of oil from Russia.
This is true, but a war would probably have a broader impact on the global petroleum market, and I wouldn’t be surprised if prices go up, just due to concerns about disruptions (potentially including Russian hackers targeting the energy sector in the west in retribution for the sanctions).
Rising energy prices have already been a big factor in the overall increase in inflation in the U.S. in recent months, and I think that inflation, overall, is going to be a big drag on Biden’s success as president.
Russian imports account for 46% of Europe’s solid fuels such as coal, 26% of its crude oil and 38% of the region’s gas, Moody’s research estimates, pointing out that even a brief cut in gas supply would further boost energy prices and inflation.
(bolding mine)
So Europe would experience significant shortages, driving oil and gas prices much higher for everyone – the US included.
My understanding is that domestic oil production, which was operating at lowered capacity due to decreased demand during the pandemic, was already ramping up in response to price increases. I can’t imagine it would take that much more production to offset what we get from Russia.
Of course, I live in Texas, so every time gas spikes the state economy goes nuts.
It’s another no-win. If he is tough on Russia and the economy takes a bite, Biden gets the blame. If he does nothing, he’ll be accused of being soft on Russia. He’s doing the right thing, IMO. History has shown that being soft on Russia is a recipe for disaster.
I totally agree. If the Prez went in the other direction I could easily see a “Will refusing to intervene in Ukraine torpedo Biden’s presidency?” variant pop up here. Those torpedoes are always at the ready for any situation.
I think it depends on what the response from Trump and the GOP is.
If it is “we must be strong and united against Russia” then Biden will probably have some cover. If it’s “Stupid Biden is wrecking our economy - vote GOP” then the US could gain the upper hand.
So, will the GOP take the united front approach to make sure we aren’t pushed around by Russia? Or will they look to score political points even if it weakens the US with respect to our foreign adversaries? Anybody taking bets?
I imagine you are correct, but I do notice that at least some GOP Senators are showing a bit of deference here.
Trump will rant and rave, but there are still some grownups in the party. It’s just possible that the threat of Russian expansion is serious enough that there is some form of “Country over Party” that prevails.
He will be honoring treaties with our allies, which is tough to criticize without sounding like a coward, a waffler, and someone who throws friends to the wolves. Oh, wait.
