The flip in Virginia was an own goal. When the governor says that parents should have no say in their children’s education, and that same governor looks and sounds like a used car salesman, and the state has a record of nearly always voting for governor against the party currently in the White House, it’s pretty difficult to win.
I agree that PA are the best chances for Democratic pickups. My hope is that the margin becomes 52-48, enabling Schumer to tell Manchin and Sinema to go suck eggs.
Wisconsin was 3 or 4 points to the right of the country in 2020. Even in a 50-50 election nationwide, which would be a shockingly great midterm result for Democrats (the only recent time the president’s party did better than that in its midterm was 2002), you’d rather be the Republican candidate.
Johnson’s awful favorability number suggests that a fair number of Republican voters disapprove of him, too. That said, when it gets to the time of the general election, when those voters’ choice boils down to Johnson or a Democrat, I suspect that the majority of them will still vote for Johnson.
I think you’re being too dismissive of the outcome in Virginia. Going from a ten-point Biden margin to a 2-point Youngkin victory in a year takes more than just a gaffe. And Republicans in New Jersey also did much better than expected. VA and NJ have often been the canary in the coalmine for the midterm elections, and as @Lance_Turbo notes all indicators are that this year will be a tough one for Democrats.
But I am confident that if there is one incumbent who can piss that advantage away, it’s Johnson. In his comments on COVID and the 2020 election he seems to have genuinely gone off the reservation in a way he hasn’t before. It wouldn’t be the worst strategy for Democrats to not-so-subtly imply that he’s losing his faculties.
And for the first time he’ll be running against someone besides Russ Feingold, so that’ll be new.
Hopefully his water-carrying for Trump since then will tip those votes the other way.
Plus, the GOP candidate wasn’t a rabid Trumpite, like Johnson.
Key question is whether he’s a true-blue Trumper or just an fellow traveler.
Many Republicans are afraid to cross Trump for fear that he will endorse an opponent in the primaries. But if that’s the case, then as soon as that danger is passed, he can revert to a more rational stance. And many voters are not paying much attention early on and/or have short memories, so he can recover to a large extent.
But if he himself is a True Believer, then he’s likely to persist, to his detriment.
I myself have no idea which is correct. What was he like before Trump came on the scene?
According to @BobLibDem in post 15, “His entire persona is based on denial of the 2020 election results and being an hysterical opponent of vaccines.” I have no idea what he was like before Trump, but if he’s been backing Trump’s bullshit since 2015 that should give his Dem challenger more than enough material to make Johnson=Trump case.
I don’t think historical “material” has much impact, unless it’s a late breaking scandal.
If Johnson’s message and image are “I know we have differences of opinion about [various Trump-related matters] but my campaign is not about that, I’m focused on problems facing the people of Wisconsin such as A, B, and C …”, and his opponent’s campaign is focused on “You’re a crazy Trumper”, I don’t see that as a downside for Johnson. Might be a positive, if anything. I see again and again that people tend to prefer candidates who they perceive as focusing on their issues over candidates who are perceived as focusing on attacking their opponents.
But again, the question is whether Johnson can pull off that shift in stance. If he’s a True-Blue Trumper, he might not be able to change his spots. I don’t know.
Based on what is described in his Wikipedia entry, even prior to 2016, his stances included:
That was all pretty much GOP orthodoxy, pre-Trump.
OTOH, if the Dem’s message is,“I’m here to help you with A, B and C, while Johnson is a crazy Trumper who’s still trying to get the 2020 election overturned,” that might work just fine.
With all due respect, have you lived in the US since 2015?
Thanks for the research I was too lazy to do. Wiki also says “During the COVID-19 pandemic, Johnson voted against the Families First Coronavirus Response Act, which passed the Senate on March 18, 2020, by a vote of 90–8.” And “In May 2021, Johnson falsely claimed that thousands of deaths were connected to COVID vaccinations.” It shouldn’t be too hard to paint him as a wingnut, because he is one.