Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson’s third campaign

Will Wisconsin voters reward or punish him for breaking his promise?

I’m on the fence about term limits. If forced to choose I would say for now I oppose them

But I hate when pols make a promise to self-limit their time in office and then break it. It shows a total lack of integrity.

But I don’t think it is going to cost him significant votes. I think key issues and who the Democrats run will matter more.

Agree. But his last polled (Nov 3) favorable rating is 35% according to this, and he says a lot of stupid stuff, so it’s not like he’ll just glide to reelection.

If I actually supported him, this would not be a deal breaker, honestly. A 12 year old promise? I would say to myself, “Times change and so do minds.” Of course, he is a Trumpublican so I would oppose for other reasons.

It’s pretty rare for a broken term limits pledge to actually hurt an incumbent seeking reelection. I agree with @squeegee that the biggest hurdle to Ron Johnson’s reelection bid is him being Ron Johnson. But it’s shaping up to be a good year for Republicans, Biden only won Wisconsin by a whisker, and Democrats have a crowded field of candidates in their primary. I do not count him out by any means.

It might be fortunate for him that his current term is up in the midterms.

I think he’s the slight favorite but this is a winnable seat for Dems if they get a fair bite at the apple.

I think he’s vulnerable due to all the pandering he’s done to the Trumpets. He’s taking a big political gamble doing that. I was hoping he’d keep his promise and another non-Trumper (or at least a not so outspoken one) Republican would run.

When politicians make and break promises like this, how often do their opponents (whether in the primary or general) make a big deal out of them lying, pushing the “If we can’t trust them to keep their word on this…” narrative?

Help me understand Wisconsin election schedules. At this point, are we talking about Johnson running in the primary against other Repubs, or in the general election?

He will have to survive a primary (which Ballotpedia says is on August 9), as well as the general election in November.

At this point, there are a ton of declared candidates for the race, including four other Republicans (not counting Johnson).

Opponents try to use it against them, but it’s rarely effective. Several Republican members of Congress elected in the “Republican Revolution” of 1994 ran on term limit pledges then broke them when their self-imposed time limit expired. I believe they were all subsequently reelected.

Term limits tends to be one of those things that a lot of voters support in the abstract, but when it comes to their own individual member of Congress put greater weight on having a Representative with more seniority.

Promises are for losers.

I don’t think any of those are serious candidates. Johnson will win his primary easily.

LOL. Brad Beyer’s campaign page (beyerforsenate dot com) right now features this quote on the main page…

Following in the footsteps of retiring U.S. Senator Ron Johnson, who has honorably kept his word to term limit himself, I will proudly follow his example to term limit myself to two terms as he has done.

Check it out now. It probably won’t last.

I was kind of suspecting that there weren’t yet any high-profile Republican candidates who had filed, while they were waiting on Johnson’s decision. Barring any late entrants, I’d suspect that you are right that he’ll not be seriously challenged in the primary.

I think this is one of the better chances of a Democratic flip. His entire persona is based on denial of the 2020 election results and being an hysterical opponent of vaccines. Not just the mandates, the idea that doctors are claiming to know more than God or other such rot. He road Donnie’s coattails in 2016, I don’t think that the same benefit will be there for him this year.

Agreed. The state rejected Trump in 2020, so the Dem candidate should be able to leverage that sentiment against Johnson.

O[quote=“BobLibDem, post:16, topic:957483, full:true”]
He road Donnie’s coattails in 2016…
[/quote]

Oh jeez, what a stupid typo. He rode Donnie’s coattails.

Johnson outperformed Trump in 2016 by over 70k votes (1,479,471 to 1,405,284).

In 2022 Johnson will be the only incumbent defending a seat in a state won by the other party in the 2020 presidential election. That said, there’s a lot of reasons to think that 2022 is going to be rough for team blue.

Wisconsin rejected Trump by the thinnest of margins, and Virginia showed that even a much bluer state can reverse itself within the span of a year.

That said, this and PA are clearly Democrat’s two best opportunities at a pickup. This far out I’d say it’s a coin flip.