Morocco have taken a surprise (to me anyway) lead over South Korea, after conceding six in their opening match against Germany.
Faced with elimination, the Norwegians finally came alive. On the Filipinas’ side – a penalty, an own goal, a red card. Nothing went the Filipinas’ way today. It was a good run while it lasted. See you in four years.
And Colombia knock over Germany. Germany should still get through if they beat South Korea, but like several other favorites (Canada, Australia, Brazil) they aren’t taking the direct route to the knockout stages.
There have been a few drubbings, but a lot more unexpectedly tough matches between fancied sides and “expanding to 32 was a mistake” teams.
Despite the fact that my team lost, I’d put that Germany-Colombia match at or near the top of great games to have watched, with France-Brazil up there as well. But waking up early to watch these games has been tough.
Wish I’d watched Germany-Colombia in its entirety, but even watching a highlight package on youtube was thrilling. I recommend it highly.
So, let’s review the state of the groups, now that we’re heading into the final round of group matches (well, group A is done).
Group A is in the books. Switzerland #1, Norway #2. (Interestingly, looks like every team in the group got exactly one win). New Zealand sent home despite their opening day upset win.
Group B: Assuming Nigeria get any kind of result vs Ireland, they’re through, meaning one of Australia/Canada is going home, so that becomes a HUGE match. Canada is fine with a draw, Australia must win. Those matches are tonight, 3 A.M. pacific.
Group C: Spain and Japan both through, play each other tonight at midnight pacific to determine #1 vs #2.
Group D: England is through, Haiti (despite looking strong) is out. Denmark and China vying for the final spot, with Denmark seeming to have the edge as they still have Haiti to play as opposed to England (who still has incentive to win to clinch the #1 seed). Matches are 4 a.m. Tuesday.
Group E: Vietnam is out. Netherlands nearly guaranteed going through, meaning it comes down to USA vs Portual, with USA advancing on a draw (but BIG incentive to win the group to avoid a matchup with Sweden in the round of 16, who have been the USA’s kryptonite recently). USA currently +2 in goal differential vs Netherlands, so if the Dutch rout Vietnam, USA could win and still be #2 in the group. Matches are midnight Monday.
Group F: France all but guaranteed through, as long as they don’t lose to Panama. So it all comes down to Jamaica vs Brazil. Jamaica goes through on a draw. That said, Brazil is massively favored. Matches are 3 a.m. Wednesday.
Group G: Sweden is through. All teams still alive, at least in theory. Italy through if they beat South Africa (as they are certainly expected to). South Africa and Argentina both need to both win and have stuff go their way. Matches are midnight Tuesday.
Group H: Colombia is effectively through (could theoretically not make it if they lose to South Korea and Morocco wins and makes up 9 goal differential). Korea is out. So it comes down to Germany vs Morocco, obviously Germany expected to win. Matches are 3 a.m. Thursday.
Nitpick: Germany already played Morocco (6-0), their last game is South Korea. The other game is Morocco-Colombia. Germany will get through if they win, and could even still make the first place in the group if Morocco beats Colombia, which is important because possible opponents in the knock-out game will come from the France/Brazil group.
I don’t think England are through yet, not are Haiti out? England have got 6 pts and play China, who have 3. Denmark have 3 and play Haiti, yet to get off the mark. England could go out if Denmark and China win, or Haiti could go through if they and England win?
Everything you said is right.
Columbia v. Germany is the game of the tournament so far. Incredible.
There have been upsets but nothing like the Men in 2022. Some jaw dropping surprises there leaving no team unscathed. Hard to believe the winning team won’t be highly ranked, but all power to the underdogs (though I want to see Canada victorious against the Matildas. I’d like it if the Canadian team had a popular name, but in Canada this may risk being seen as condescending for presumed reasons).
That midnight time is Pacific Time, I believe. 1:00 am Tuesday Mountain, 2:00 am Central, 3:00 am Eastern.
Meaning that Argentina is 99% out, a tie against Sweden I can see, perhaps, winning? forget about it.
Thanks for the recommendation! That looked like a fun game to watch. Two quality teams.
I’m having a hard time understanding the US’s current situation. Did they make it through for sure and the only part in the air is what ranking they will have? Or is there still a chance to miss if they lose the next game?
They are in with a win or a tie.
If they lose to Portugal they are going to have to hope that the Netherlands loses to Vietnam. Even then they might not make it to the knockout round depending on the final scores of those two games.
(In more detail: If they lose to Portugal they will have 4 points and Portugal will beat them out with 6 points. If Netherlands wins, Netherlands will beat them out with 7 points. If NL ties, NL will beat them out with 5 points. If NL loses NL also sticks at 4 points, and the second place team will be decided by goal differential or some other tiebreaker, as detailed above,)
Thanks.
Australia look like they are through, and unless Canada wake up soon they are going home early.
Japan looks like one of the favorites, as they destroyed Spain 4-0 today.
And congrats to Zambia, which achieved their first ever WC victory today, 3-1 over Costa RIca.
Yeah, when two teams at 6 points meet in the third match of pool play, you don’t expect that much of a slaughtering. They are just on fire when it comes to converting chances… and have also let in a total of zero goals so far.
England aren’t through yet. A 2 goal win for China and any win for Denmark will see the Lionesses going home. I didn’t cross check all your analysis, this one just stood out.