In terms of classical chess, his overall record is 452 W - 337 D - 86 L with white. With black, he is 259-467-101.
His current rating is 2853. The second in the world (Nepo) is 2794. Doing a quick ELO calculation, for an individual game (accounting for both white and black), that rating difference should mean Carlsen wins 30% of the time, draws 56% of the time, and loses 14%. For a best-of-14, that would be Carlsen 77%, Nepo 12%, 10% draw and moves on to tie-breaks. (According to this online calculator.)
That’s just based on what numbers we have, not real world conditions, psychology, etc. Carlsen certainly does not win every tournament he enters. For example, at the Tata Steel Chess Tournament earlier this year, he finished third behind Giri and Abdusattorov. The time limits are slightly tighter than the World Championship (you get 100 min for first 40 moves vs 120 in the WC, then 50 for the next 20 instead of 60), but it’s not a rapid chess format. But I also would guess he prepares somewhat less intensely than he would for a World Chess Championship.
Extraordinary result today as a see-saw game ended with Nepo making essentially a one-move blunder that cost him the game, meaning the scores are now level at 6-6 with 2 games to go. So it’s really anybody’s now - will Nepo change plans tomorrow and push harder for a win with White? He’ll regret it if he goes for a conservative draw, only for Ding to snatch the title with victory in the final game.
Why? Someone mentioned “exploiting weaknesses”, but it seems to me that players with that many weaknesses shouldn’t have made it to the championship in the first place.
Well, some of the speculation I saw on streaming was simply nerves, but that’s pretty hard to prove. That said, Nepo blundered a winning position, so it’s a fair guess.
Maybe not. If it’s tied after 14 games, they go to tiebreaker games with less time on the clock. If either feels their speed or blitz chess game is better than their opponent, it’s better to avoid losses than go for wins.
I understand what you’re saying, and it may very well be true. Prudence is often the better part of valor. Still, were I in that position, my whole feeling about this match and the way it has unfolded is that aggression is going to carry the day. Since I have an aggressive personality to begin with, I’d take that route.
No, I imagine in decades of championships there’s probably been a worse one. But it’s extraordinary to see one of the world’s top players, three games from securing a championship, blunder so badly that he resigns a heretofore winnable game right after his opponent’s next move.
Nepo had a blunder in the last championship against Magnus that I wouldn’t have made and all the commentators said he should just resign at that point.
After watching the video, yeah, I think this one is worse. I immediately saw the correct response.
Weird to be so good at what you do and your reputation is just making terrible blunders.
Based on their quick and apparently mutual willingness to get into repeated moves and draw game 13, I don’t think either player wants to risk a blunder in the decisive game. Much like an American football team taking a knee in the final minute of regulation, they’ll be more willing to take their chances in overtime (the rapid round).
When Tiger Woods was in his prime, was there any doubt that he was the best in the world? Did he need to be officially crowned the world champion? Didn’t his results speak for themselves, even if he took a month or a year off?