Wanted to start a thread to get various opinions here, not just the English. Here’s your chance to tell everyone how your side got a raw deal, or to crow about how you are going all the way to the final.
A: France, Uruguay, Denmark, Senegal
B: Spain, Paraguay, Slovenia, South Africa
C: Brazil, Costa Rica, Turkey, China
D: Portugal, Poland, South Korea, USA
E: Germany, Ireland, Cameroon, Saudi Arabia
F: Argentina, England, Sweden, Nigeria
G: Italy, Croatia, Ecuador, Mexico
H: Russia, Belgium, Japan, Tunisia
Round of 16:
Germany over Paraguay
France over England
Argentina over Uruguay
Spain over Ireland
Italy over Poland
Brazil over Belgium
Russia over Costa Rica
Portugal over Croatia
Quarter Finals:
France over Brazil
Italy over Germany
Spain over Portugal
Argentina over Russia
Semis:
Spain over Italy
France over Argentina
Final:
France over Spain
So, there you have it – with an admited bias towards my own country, never-quite-live-up-to-expectations, Spain.
But hey! hope springs eternal
PS-For anyone interested in detailed NT discussions you can join me at the World Football Forum
Ermmm…nope, not kidding. I said I was biased on my take with Spain but the rest of my picks were pretty objective.
Group D breakdown:
Portugal: Arguably, only France and Argentina are playing better football now. In Nuno Gomez and Pauleta they have one of the best midfield pairings in the world, in Figo, the current Golden Boot winner, one of the few true superstars of the game. Their defense is a tad slow, but it’ll be extremely hard to outscore the Portuguese.
Clear favorites to win the group.
Poland: Earliest European qualifiers, only lost one meaningless match. They seem to be getting back to the form that brought them two consecutive third place finishes in Argentina '78 and Spain '82. Their biggest individual threat is naturalized Nigerian, Olisadebe, who does most of their scoring. Tough, hard-nosed, physical team with lots of experienced players in the European top leagues.
I like them for second.
South Korea: I confess I don’t know much about them. But Korea is no stranger to the WC – this marks their sixth consecutive appearance – and there’s no denying that playing at home will give them an added boost. I do know their new coach well, Dutchman Guus Hiddink, had a stint with my beloved Real Madrid, and although he didn’t pan out with us, his credentials are solid. Certainly better than Arena’s. Expect a devilishly fast team that can go for 90 minutes and then some. No picnic.
USA: Started qualifying like gangbusters, ended up living from past investments. Sure, had some injuries – Reyna’s hurt the most – but that is par for the course. Fact is, the defense that Bruce had relied so much on, looked live a sieve towards the end. The match at RFK Vs Honduras was plain embarrassing. Can they get it back in roughly 180 days? Perhaps, but it’ll take a monumental effort for a team with no stars (D Landon is the only prospect I see) to overcome Portugal and/or Poland. I see them playing with Korea for their pride and hopes for a better finish than France '98. Where they were dead last.
So, yes, I would indeed be greatly surprised if the US made it out of the group stage. And make no mistake, I honestly hope they do. It can be quite lonely being a football fan in this country…nothing like a few victories by the home team to attract the attention this sport so richly deserves.
Wow. Well, to be honest, I don’t know too much about football (soccer). I had just heard random reports that the US team was better than last year, so I figured I’d bump them up in the D bracket from fourth to third
You seem to know your stuff, so I suppose I’ll trust your judgement.
I was also hoping to maybe get some arguments going and get some attention to the thread, in the same way that American sports threads have nice debates going. By working me over so thoroughly and calmly, a monkey wrench was thrown into my plans But that’s ok.
Well, its not as bad as you make it out. The United States three biggest weapons (Mathis, Wolff, and Renya) missed the last half of qualifying, and by that time we had already more than qualified. And yes the match at RFK was an embarrassment, but that was just one game out of the ten. Anyway, what I’m trying to get at is that the USA has a greater chance of advancing that you are giving them, and we do have the talent to beat the Koreans, and I can see a shock against Poland, although they are much stronger than a lot of Americans are already making them out to be.
My heart says second, my mind says third, if you know what I mean.
Of course, being Portuguese-American, I realize that the US is going to get their asses handed to them in the first game. But I can say that for any team in the world besides France, Argentina, and maybe Italy.
Also, you seen to have the sequence of games wrong. After the Portugal game, its the Koreans * then * the Polish. If a good result is achieved against the Koreans, reaching the knock-out round is possible.
Slight nitpick, it’s Landon Donovan, not D Landon. (I’m a Quakes supporter, sorry )
It’s certaintly going to be another great tournament.
It would be silly for me to suggest that the USA have a chance to beat Portugal; an upset for them would be a draw. Portugal does stumble occasionally, so it could happen. But the Portugese seem to play better in the front of a tournament than the back, so it’s highly unlikely. FWIW, the USA won the last time these two teams faced each other, 1-0, way back in 1992.
Against the Koreans, well, that’s anyone’s guess. The Koreans should have an advantage with the crowd wildly in their favor (I’ll try to make a little noise for the Yanks). Maybe the pressure to win at home will be too much for the Koreans. Anyway, the USA’s next two games are against Korea. First on December 9 in Seogwipo, then in the kickoff game for the CONCACAF Cup, January 19th in Pasadena. This should give us an idea of how the two sides matchup.
I’m not sold on the Poles. Admittedly I didn’t see any of their qualifying matches, but they only finished third two summers ago for Euro 2000, behind Sweden and England in their group. It’s not as if the English were playing brilliant football back then. They did quite well against the Norwegians, Belarusians and Ukranians. Ukraine finished dismally in the second round. So they played extremely well in their group. This will be the key match for the USA if they wish to push on to the second round.
For me the key is can they stay healthy and get their offense back on track. Yes, they looked like crap in their qualifying, but they never lost while they had Reyna in the center. And it’s tough on your defense when you have no control in the midfield and little up front. If Wolff and Mathis can return to form I think they can challenge.
Hey, I’m all for debate – no such thing as an ‘expert’ in footy. I may know a thing or two about the game, but that’s never prevented me from being completely and utterly wrong before
Besides, Chris and ShibbOleth make good counter-arguments of their own.
Well, Chris hard to put a number on the US chances for advancing, what I’m suggesting is that I favor Portugal’s and Poland’s odds. Certainly, nothing’s written in stone, upsets are commonplace in sports and almost de rigour at a World Cup. But not to put a damper in American enthusiasm, you remain on the outside looking and some of the more triumphant comments I read on the ‘advance of US soccer’ don’t seem to take into account that the world is not exactly standing still waiting for the US to catch up.
Yes, I totally understand what you heart tells you, that’s what makes us fans and not robots; but by the same token I find statements like the USSF “Project 2010 plan” for winning the WC not only highly unrealistic but more than a bit damaging. As it stands now, making the World Cup is already a great achievement as is the fact you’re slowly catching up to Mexico atop the CONCACAF. So yes, you should go to Japan/Korea fearing no one but beyond being there, all else is gravy.
ShibbOleth,
First off, friendlies end up meaning next to nothing in the overall scheme of things, so no, I’d place little to no worth to what the US did Vs Portugal in a friendly ten years ago. In fact, I think part of the misplaced euphoria in American soccer stems from the fact that you’ve had some success in friendlies and want to parlay those results into a significant gage of where you stand in the world. In that sense, the victories over Germany (twice) and Argentina in '99? may have done more harm than good.
I think a much more accurate picture of the reality of the USA’s ranking in the world comes from their all-time World Cup record. As it stands now, the US has played 17 matches, earning 4 wins, 1 tie and 12 loses. Remarkably, said record places the USA precisely where they ended up in the last World Cup, in 32nd place.
So, I’ll say it again, any improvement over that 32nd place finish should be considered a success. Advancement into the second round, a huge upset.
BobT,
A not insignificant fact which you quote. Prior to this World Cup, the weakest nation that had hosted the event was the USA in '94, and they advanced out of qualifying.
Fact is, we’re not going to discover now just how important crowd support is in sports – and how, when in doubt, it seems to “persuade” the refs that the home side is right. Not to mention that it never hurts to have the home side go deep into the tournament. And sadly, we’ve seen some embarrassing displays in that regard.
In closing, can’t say that I’d favor the US even in their match with Korea.
Later guys, let it rip!
PS-See Neurotik? I think I’ve raised enough controversy with all the above to get this thread going full bore…and plenty more where that came from!
One thing we should definitely do is set up some sort of pick’em pool for folks interested in the World Cup. Hopefully they’ll have some automatic stuff in Yahoo! since I don’t know how to actually organise one of those.
Also, I’m very interested to hear what some folks from other places have to say about the groupings, their country’s chance, even if you’re just a fan of that country (what, no one here is a big France or Brazil supporter?).
RedFury, I wasn’t trying to imply that you can look at the two friendlies between US and Korea and if one side wins both, they automatically would win their Cup match. What will be significant is where they match up in terms of speed, control, generating chances on the attack, etc. And that presumes that either trainer will use his best side and not just use it as a chance to see their borderline players. That said, I wouldn’t be surprise in this case, given the World Cup histories of these two teams, to see them really push for the win to try and instill confidence. Net these are generally as meaningful as NFL preseason games, which is to say not very, but you can still gather some insights if you watch carefully and know what to look for.
Having seen England get one of the top 3 seeds Argentina (we have history with them going back to 1966) and the in-form Swedes, I watched tensely as the presenter asked for the fourth ball in the group.
The guy giving it to him muttered ‘this will be Nigeria’ (toughest possible country of all the 4th picks).
The Aussies have my condolences. It would have been great fun to have them in, help keep the conversation lively. It was sad to watch the away match get away from them like that, I thought they stood a good chance to go through.
Feel free to cheer for the USA if you like to root for the underdog. [sub]I’m sure we qualify as that at least![/sub]
It’s pretty unfair that Australia has to get in only by playoff. They steamroll past a bunch of part-timers, if even that and then have to get ready for a series against a South American squad that has been kept in incredible shape for almost a year. Look at Brazil. They stumbled about a thousand times and each time had another chance to save themselves. But Australia can’t afford to make any mistakes in their do-or-die playoff. It’s not fair.
I’m too lazy to look now, but I’d venture that Uruguay lost at least one game 3-0 in their qualifying campaign.
Nope. Worst defeat was vs Venezuela 2 - 0. All info from here.
On looking through those statistics, Uruguay beat and drew against Brazil and drew and lost against Argentina. Of the South American sides they conceded the fewest goals.
Of course, once the thing starts, form pretty much goes out of the window anyway…
Not that I believe Costa rica is a weak team or anything, but the Chinese with their 100,000 plus fans will create a difficlt atmosphere, and their coach Bora Milutinovic is a guy that makes a difference. But not so big a difference that will enable them to beat a Turkish team in good shape…
In fact we might even beat Russia to face Argentina in the quarter finals…
I say that will be good enough…no point in seeking any furthar surprises…
I don’t buy this argument at all. As you said, all Australia had to do to reach a play-off against the fifth best side in South America was to beat a bunch of no-hopers. European teams had to go through a gruelling series of group games and the second place teams (with the exception of Ireland) had to play-off against another quality European side. I’ll bet any European side would happily trade places with Australia in terms of qualification.
You’ve had excellent chances to qualify for the last two world cups and blown it in play-off games. Surely you accept that you have to beat some decent team to deserve qualification.
Having said that, it looks as if FIFA are considering dropping automatic qualification for the world champions to allow Australia a virtually automatic spot.