World Cup Finals Draw - December 9

Cafe Society
1

The table is all but set for the World Cup Finals in Germany next summer. The 32 teams have been finalized for a while now. And this coming Friday from Leipzig, at 20:00 CET and 3 pm EST, is the draw for the groups for the finals.

Here are the cast of countries:
**
African Zone (5 Teams)
**
Angola (ANG)
Cote d’Ivoire (CIV)
Togo (TOG)
Ghana (GHA)
Tunisia (TUN)
**
Asian Zone (4.5 Teams)
**
Japan (JPN)
Iran (IRN)
Korea Republic (KOR)
Saudi Arabia (KSA)
**
European Zone (14 Teams)
**
Germany (GER) Host
Ukraine (UKR)
Netherlands (NED)
Poland (POL)
England (ENG)
Croatia (CRO)
Italy (ITA)
Portugal (POR)
Sweden (SWE)
Serbia and Montenegro (SCG)
France (FRA)
**
North, Central American and Caribbean Zone (3.5 Teams)
**
USA (USA)
Mexico (MEX)
Costa Rica (CRC)
Trinidad & Tobago (TRT)
**
Oceanian Zone (0.5 Teams)
**
Australia (AUS) - CONGRATS, OZ!!
**
South American Zone (4.5 Teams)
**
Argentina (ARG)
Brazil (BRA)
Ecuador (ECU)
Paraguay (PAR)

So, we have most of the major Doper countries represented, with the sad omission of Ireland, who couldn’t escape a tough pool. Engerlund have made it in, despite some spotty play in the last few months. The Clogboys made it, so we don’t need a pity party for them yet. And ze Germans have, of course, ze home field advantage.

2

Here’s one mock draw from Fox Soccer Channel:

Group A: Germany, South Korea, Poland, Ivory Coast.

Group B: Italy, England, Saudi Arabia, Australia.

Group C: Argentina, Portugal, Serbia-Montenegro, Togo.

Group D: Spain, Czech Republic, Ecuador, Trinidad.

Group E: Brazil, Japan, Costa Rica, Switzerland.

Group F: France, United States, Iran, Angola.

Group G: Netherlands, Sweden, Paraguay, Ghana.

Group H: Croatia, Mexico, Tunisia, Ukraine.

That Group B would be interesting. Italy often doesn’t play all that well in early rounds, so I’d expect England to win the group, but it would be tough for the Sockeroos to escape. From this I’d expect:

A: Germany, Ivory Coast
B: England, Italy
C: Argentina, Serbia
D: Spain, Czech Republic
E: Brazil, Swiss (but maybe Japan)
F: France, USA (assumes they do much better on European soil than previous attempts)
G: Dutch and Swedes, although I think the Ghanans could be a surprise here.
H: Mexico, Croatia

3

Group A: Germany, France, Japan, Togo
Group B: Italy, Poland, Iran, Ecuador
Group C: England, Sweden, Costa Rica, Ivory Coast
Group D: Holland, Croatia, South Korea, Ghana
Group E: Mexico, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, Paraguay
Group F: Brazil, Portugal, Czech Republic, Angola
Group G: Spain, Switzerland, USA, Tunisia
Group H: Argentina, Serbia & Montenegro, Trinidad & Tobago, Australia

I think the FSC draw was done with seeds throughout, while the ESPNSoccernet mock draw was a bit more random. FIFA is of course being secretive about seeds, somewhat, and how the draw will actually run. Germany and France in the same group is a bit odd at first, but both would likely move on against Japan and Togo.

My take:

A: Germany, France
B: Italy, Poland (Ecuador did well to qualify but did great at home, 10,000 feet, mediocre at best on the road). Iran could surprise Poland if they’re “off their game”.
C: England, Ivory Coast. Either of those could be replaced by Sweden, but I don’t see CR even taking a game in this group.
D: Dutch, Ghana.
E: Mexico, Ukraine.
F: Brazil, Czech Republic. Would be devastating for the Portuguese twice in a row.
G: Tough group. Spain to win, but I could go with any of the other three as a second place. Edge to the Swiss with the semi-home field advantage.
H: Argentina, of course, and TnT are the odd man out. Serbia & Montenegro did well through qualifying, but this group is a lot more favourable to the Sockeroos than the other mock draw. Could be interesting.

4

The seeds shouldn’t be hard at all to determine: they are based upon the coefficients which have been used for some time, with the proviso that the Home team is an “A” group seed, and gets put in whatever group opens the tournament according to the schedule.

That, by the way, is Group A, which kicks off at 18:00 CET on 9 June, in Munich.

Croatia as a top seed ahead of England, if true, is certainly a bit of a surprise, I have to say.

Has anyone looked to see if FSC or anyone else is covering the draw live in the USA?

5

Welcome to the vagaries of FIFA ratings. FIFA rankings mean nothing compared to a country’s TV money, and anyway England are a better team than Croatia. Croatia will not be seeded ahead of England.

6

FIFA’s “rankings” aren’t used to determine seedings. They use a rating that reflects past performance in the World Cup finals, primarily. It’s not perfect; it left Belgium, for example, as a top seed at least one cup final longer than they merited, but it isn’t based on, oh, say a poll of top sportswriters in the world… :smiley:

7

Actually, it’s a bit of both the FIFA rankings (modified) and a few other things, normally. But that’s actually not decided until this Tuesday, according to an article in CNN/SI by Grant Wahl:

8

Hmm, interesting. Mexico a top seed. Now that would be a real eye-opener…

9

If you read the linked article, Bruce Arena, the Yank coach, was really bitching about this. But it will probably happen.

10

The seedings have been announced as above (although in a slightly different order) - Yahoo UK & Ireland - Sports News | Live Scores | Results

I wouldn’t outright argue with any of them, although I’m still not too sure about Mexico’s capabilities, particularly when they’ve kept out a resurgent Dutch side. Still, as far as I’m aware doesn’t that provide the opportunity for one of Brazil, Mexico or Argentina to go up against both Holland and Portugal? That really would be a group of death…

11

Hmm, the weakness of Pot Two limits the possibilities for the traditional Group of Death… about the best you can do is

Brazil
Netherlands
Serbia & Montenegro ( former Yugoslav countries are normally pretty good)
Paraguay

or

Italy
Czech Republic
United States
um, Tunisia?

12

From:

http://www.ireland.com/sports/soccer/2005/1206/1132330272102_1133872098790.html

"Pool One: Germany (hosts), Brazil (champions), Italy, France, Argentina, Spain, Mexico, England

Pool Two: Australia, Angola, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Togo, Tunisia, Ecuador, Paraguay

Pool Three: Croatia, Czech Republic, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine

Pool Four: Iran, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Costa Rica, Trinidad & Tobago, United States

Special pot: Serbia & Montenegro"
My question: why is Serbia Montenegro in a separate group?

13

So that there will be no more than two European teams in any group. Serbia & Montenegro, being the lowest ranked Europeans, have to go in with either Brazil, Argentina, or Mexico. I wonder which one they’ll be hoping for?

All explained at the bottom of the Beeb’s page.

14

From BBC:

The lowest-ranked European side Serbia and Montenegro will be allocated to one of the groups containing either Brazil, Argentina or Mexico to ensure there is no more than two European sides in any group.

I am delighted we (England) got seeded, hopefully it will be a great World Cup that isn’t overshadowed by incidents off the pitch.

15

Ha. USA missed a seed by this much

:: holds up thumb and forefinger about 1/4" apart"

Our dreadful performance in 98 cost us a seed. Oh, well, we’lk have to prove we can perform in Europe if we want to get a better seed in 2010. Other than that, we know we won’t be in a group with Mexico, who is anyway our bitch, so I guess that leaves us with something else fun. Most Americans are hoping for France or Spain, I’d like England, Italy or Brazil in the first round.

Or from anyone lobbing Semen (sic) from 40 yards.

16

I don’t know if this could work out, but I’ve seen the worst case scenario for USA described as:

Brasil, Nederlands, USA & Cote d’Ivoire or Ghana.

Which might make the USA, the ninth seed (per FIFA), the worst team in the group. Still, I agree, a traditional “Group of Death” is an unlikely scenario.

17

Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I think there was no way that the USA was going to get a seed over Italy.

I think the stupidest thing that FIFA does is make the order of finish in your qualfying group irrelevant. First of all it completely ignores who has performed the best in World CUp pressure type situations and secondly it is unfair to certain teams. For example, the US clinches a position and then has nothing to play for so there next match they throw out a weak team (Against Panama? Can’t remember.) Not fair to the teams competing with Panama to get a spot.

18

Unless I’m misreading that BBC link, I think the USA could end up in Mexico’s group. Or do you have some inside information? :wink:

19

So we could have Brazil, Netherlands and USA in one group and Mexico, Iran, Serbia and Togo in another?

20

No association teams can be in the same initial group EXCEPT for Europe, which must because they have so many teams in the Finals (14). So USA cannot be grouped with Mexico, Costa Rica or T&T. Likewise Brazil or Argentina cannot have Ecuador or Paraguay in their group, and the Asian and African countries are all separated.

Captain Lance - theoretically there is no seeding after the first pot. So yes, in theory that could happen. But there is always much whispering about what really goes on in FIFA, and hopefully the groups are a bit more balanced than that. Hopefully USA faces Mexico in the second round and eliminates them from the Cup (again). :slight_smile: