Qualifying can sometimes indicate how well a team will do in WC or Euro. But it doesnt always
Yup, thats exactly what it means 
Vlaar and Janmaat are pretty good. The rest I’m worried about.
Janmaat and Lens supposedly are being courted by Juventus
Flipping this coin can indicate if the S&P500 goes up tomorrow. It doesn’t always.
Nevertheless, there may still be a positive correlation between the Netherlands’ ease of qualifying and their performance in the subsequent tournaments, so **Esco **may have a point. Someone run some stats on how the Dutch have done when they’ve barely scraped through qualifying…
The complete destruction of (the allowedly weak) Hungarian side did show what Holland can do when it’s all coming together. That last free kick of Robben was a beauty. Speaking of whom: if during the WC we get this “new” Robben - the one who passes, and knows what the back field looks like from actually visiting it - it’s a wholly different team from EC12
And I think “kont” is more butt than ass - the latter more appropriately translated with “reet” . If you disagree, then dat zal mij m’n reet roesten.
I have that 8-1 Hungary demolition available for download if anyone wants it
Fucking Dutch, so obnoxious! FFS. I’ll see your ‘game against Sweden’ and I’ll raise you the part of my post where it says ‘almost undefeated’ (bolding mine). Now pretty please, with sugar on top, stop trying to nitpick my posts by selective reading and get a grasp on the basic concept of correlation already.
If you hear vGaal’s post-Turkey interview: Interview Van Gaal na Turkije-Nederland 15-10-2013 - YouTube
I have to kinda agree with him. There as a progressive (stijgende lijn) line in Oranje’s form last 2 matches. Hungary was excellent, and Turkey was good also. Especially considering they had to play turkey away and they were in a must-win situation
My original point was just that there are 6 other teams who also qualified from Europe without losing a game so that record in itself doesn’t make them stand out. The Netherlands were one of the most comfortable qualifiers, but were in one of the easiest qualification groups, which ever way you spin it; so qualification indicates more “no cause for concern” than “something special”.
This is my own feelings on the qualifiers so far (’*’ = seeded):
Brazil*: Home advantage 3 out of 4 times is a considerable advantage and if this were any other Brazil team from the last 3 or 4 decades I wouldn’t be able to look past them as the favourites. However this Brazil team isn’t as good as their predecessors, but nevertheless they are still one of the main contenders. My 3rd or 4th favourites and maybe I am underestimating home advantage as it will be very tough for anyone to beat them in the knockout rounds in front of their own fans.
Japan: Unlikely to seriously threaten to win it, but still one to watch- if for nothing other than the fact they play one of the most attractive brands of football of any national team. A number of excellent highly skilled players which, as long as their not in a “group of death”, will take them to the 2nd round or maybe a bit further. But I think their lack of physicality will be their undoing.
Australia: Not as good as the Australian teams that went to the last two World Cups. Could nick a few points in the group stages, but not likely to grace the knockout stage.
Iran: Solid but unremarkable. Realistically will be looking more to try to keep things respectable in the group stages than advancing.
South Korea: Yet another team going to the World Cup that’ll probably wish they had a few of the players that they have taken in previous years. Unlikely to make it to the 2nd round.
The Netherlands(possible*): Last time’s runners-up and with some real fire power in their attack, though the defence though is only notable for it’s absence of players of any great note. One of the top 6 or so teams in the World, I expect they will make a push to the quarter or even semi finals, but I don’t expect them to go further. Could technically be seeded, but as it is dependent of Jordan beating Uruguay over two legs it’s a fairly sure bet they won’t be.
Italy: 2006 winners and still one of the elite. However definitely not as good as the very best 3 or 4 teams. Quarter final to semi finals is about were I expect them to go out.
Costa Rica: Pretty strong in qualification and some decent payers in their squad. However unless they’re placed in the same group as another particularly weak team will they struggle not to finish bottom of their group.
USA: Coming off the back of a lot of wins in qualification after a weak start and also a friendly win against Germany (albeit a Germany lacking pretty much all of their 1st team players) hopes are high among US fans. In my opinion though the current team isn’t as good as 2010 and their current 13th place in the FIFA rankings flatters them greatly. If placed in an easy group will have a fair chance of making the 2nd round, but if they are in a difficult group they are unlikely to advance.
Argentina*: Qualified convincingly from the always-difficult CONMEBOL qualification, have one of the best players ever to play. Their lack of an out-and-out centre forward won’t bother them so much as they have plenty of more withdrawn players who can score. The defence is fairly weak though. These are also my 3rd or 4th favourites and could go all the way.
Belgium*: So many good young players from front to back, lack of quality will not be a concern. However as a very wise sage once said: “You can’t win anything with kids” and lack of experience is a concern. I expect them to go deep into the later rounds, but I think the lack of experience among their players will show at some point, which is why they are not among the top 4 or 5 contenders for me.
Switzerland*: Have been pretty strong for a while, but the fact they are among the seeds next year definitely flatters them and causes a few heads to be scratched. They will be the seed that most unseeded teams will be hoping to draw and the seed that is mostly likely to exit in the 1st round. They have a decent chance of making the knockout stage and maybe even springing a surprise to go further than the 2nd round, but I don’t expect them to trouble the elite teams in the later stages.
Germany*: My tentative favourites to win it. The success of Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen in last years Champions League has made Germany football very much the current flavour and for good reason. The combination of tactics, physicality and technique blew away the Spanish ‘tika-taka’ style of Barcelona and Real Madrid and reflects the way that the national team plays. Maybe lacking one or two players in some positions, but still my favourites.
Colombia*: Very strong in qualifying, even if they did tail off slightly in the last few games and they also have some absolute top quality players like Falcao. Likely to be one of this years dark horses and get to the later knock-out rounds, though I can’t see them winning it.
Russia: Typical Russian team, solid throughout but lacking big-name stars. One of the weaker European qualifiers, but are far from being a push over. Progression to the 2nd round will probably depend on which group they are drawn in.
Bosnia: World Cup debutantes, they have a few very good players like Dzeko and Pjanic for example, but the squad is patchy in terms of quality. As probably the weakest European team to qualify so far, 1st round exit seems fairly likely, but making the knockout stages is certainly not beyond them.
England: Recent performances have mixed good with bad and there are less expectations on this England team than previous ones. Barring a very unlucky draw, should be favourites to make it out of their group. Progression even further will really depend on whether the young players who have recently come through contiune to progress and the veteran’s performances don’t drop off. Slightly sensitive to injury in a few key positions. I am quietly confident we can make the QFs and even push a little bit further if things come together.
Spain*: Coming into the tournament as World Champions, back-to-back European Champions, currently ranked no.1 in the World and qualified unbeaten from a qualification group that also featured France. In other words you’d be crazy not to have them as one of the top favourites. Though they don’t seem quite as dominant as they did in the past as was underlined by Brazil’s emphatic 3-0 victory over them in the Confederations Cup final or the way their two best domestic teams were dominated by German teams in last years Champions League semi-finals.
Chile: Showed late flourish in South American qualification which could mark them as one to watch. Getting out of their group must be their first goal though, which could leave them at the mercy of the draw.
Ecuador: Weakest South American qualifiers and likely to go out in the 1st round, however a 2nd round appearance cannot be discounted for any team qualifying from Europe or South America.
Honduras: Probably the weakest of all qualifiers so far, their 2010 experience may prove valuable, but it will be a minor miracle for them to reach the 2nd round. Likely to be their group’s whipping boys.
A couple of things.
This quote is only remembered because Alex Ferguson proved that you can win stuff with kids. I don’t think Belgium are going to win the World Cup, far from it in fact, but I think they will be strong and could well get to the semis, knocking out a traditional power or two on the way. And if the draw falls right, they have a good chance, which is more than I would give all but 4 teams.
Given that the quote was disproved at the end of the season, and his increased penchant over the last few years for lazy, one word sentence, analysis, I would hold off on calling Alan Hansen “very wise”.
ETA: that said, I don’t disagree with much of what you’ve written. The top few nations you have correlate with mine and from there on it is a bit of a crap shoot - as any knock out tournament will be.
Yes it was a bit of a joke as the “very wise sage” actually looked very foolish for saying it: whilst I do think Belgium’s lack of experience is the difference between them having a good chance of getting to the semis and having a good chance of winning it, the problem with these type of prediction is there’s always a lot of scope for being wrong.
Come the World Cup I can guarantee that a lot of the predictions made will end up looking foolish.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - Spain will follow the last two European WC champions and will crash out in the Group Stage.
My 2 finalists are: Brazil - Argentina
Semifinalists: Germany, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina
Quarterfinalists: Holland, Spain, Belgium, Italy, Germany, Colombia, Brazil and Argentina
If anyone wants to take a stab at explaining how Switzerland got a top 8 seed, I’d love to hear it. I took a look at their past few years:
2011: failed to qualify for Euro 2012, losing to such traditional powers as Wales and Montenegro.
2012 and 2013: qualified for 2014 WC out of a rather weak group. Nobody else in their group has a current FIFA ranking better than 30. Slovenia is ranked 30, followed by Iceland and Norway at 46 and 47.
Color me baffled.
Shit happens.
Longer answer: sometimes a team punches above their weight, for awhile.
Longest answer: Switzerland had the good fortune of being in an easy group, with Iceland, Slovenia, Norway, Albania, and Cyprus, and didn’t lose any matches.
ETA: The greater question is why that group was so light weight. Compare it to Group I! I don’t know the answer to that. I watched when the pots were drawn for the qualifying, but it seems madness that France could be placed in a group with Spain, and Switzerland with no other teams ranked over 30.
Well UEFA and FIFA are both headquartered in Switzerland, and I for one wouldn’t put it past either organisation rigging the draw to benefit their host nation…
Impossible, because the formula for calculating FIFA rankings is not a secret and available to anyone
The rankings only determined which pot a countrystarts in. The drawing into groups could still have been rigged.
Playing around with the aforementioned World Cup Draw Simulator, it seems to me that the slightly strange seedings produced by the current FIFA ranking rules are actually rather kind to unseeded European teams (apart from Italy and Netherlands, who would normally expect to be seeds). The other second-tier European teams cannot possibly be in the same group as Italy or Netherlands, and what’s more have a 50% chance of avoiding any of the historical elite teams (Bra/Arg/Ger/Spa/Ita, and maybe Ned counts as “elite” too).
Not that I underestimate, say, Colombia, but I think most people would rather have them than Argentina.
That’s for sure!