That was kind of a dick thing to say. My apologies, Mijin.
I missed the part where you need to synchronize various worlds, but a swarm of comets or a big asteroid cloud might get the job done, as would some Star Trek type of “world Killer” like V-ger.
I gather random chance could conceivably allow the possibility of several worlds dealing with major upheavals simultaneously.
If we want to synchronise the development of life on planets orbiting other stars, these options are far too small. A big asteroid cloud or swarm of comets might affect all the planets in a single planetary system, and the Late Heavy Bombardment event is a good example of this sort of thing. But the Late Heavy Bombardment was far to small and localised to affect any other stars. As Douglas Adams said, space is mind-bogglingly big.
This I agree with- especially a self-replicating swarm of world-killers, like the ‘Berserkers’ mentioned upthread. The ‘worldkillers’ could be some sort of accidental ‘paperclip catastrophe’ event - a foolish advanced civilisation might order some self-replicating probes to eliminate a particularly verminous alien life-form in one or more systems, but forget to give the probes a clear set of instructions on when to stop.
I can see how a Star Trek/Star Wars type alien race that is essentially humanoid could be expected to evolve to an advanced physical state and progress to better tools and technology than we humans have currently managed to achieve. Their history may be similar, starting out as primitives, progressing through savagery and barbarism … fast forward, they become Vulcans, or Greys, whatever, but they’re ahead of us because they are an older race … they had a head-start.
This doesn’t work so well for me if they are really different, say a society of organisms that don’t use tools, but adapt to their ecological niche with biology alone, like the Insectoids in the “Star Ship Trooper” movie. Dolphins are very intelligent … I could see a Dolphin-like alien developing Mathematics and observing their world scientifically, but eschewing tools because they really don’t need them. Some alien species could possibly achieve interstellar travel by means other than developing local technology. The Insects could perhaps spread their eggs in protected clusters attached to meteors, achieving escape velocity like the plasma bursts in “Starship Troopers” (movie), or launch just their DNA into space, to be discovered by other races, as envisioned in “Species”. The aliens themselves would spread through the Galaxy not by traveling in a Star Ship but simply by spreading their seed.
Even if an extraterrestrial species had simple aerospace technology no more advanced than ours, they could launch a Voyager" type probe, but instead of a Golder Record, they could equip their craft with “The Blob”, an infectious or amoeba-like creature in hibernation, that when discovered, either implants the DNA of the alien race into unsuspecting hosts or just absorbs them. The plots of sci-fi movies like “The Blob”, “Species”, and “Andromeda Strain” illustrate that alien contact may not take the predictable form of a “take-me-to-your-leader” cliche, but rather, a possibly intelligent infestation.
While we’re looking at novel suggestions from sci-fi story lines, consider “Alien”. What if our first contact is not with an aggressive technological species, but with stowaways on a ship programmed to achieve Earth orbit … stowaways that have killed and eaten the crew of the interstellar ship. Instead of dealing with logical, progressive “pro-social” explorers, we
are exposed to their predators who use the tech of their prey to spread through the Galaxy.
How about Lovecraft’s Great Old Ones. Maybe instead of politically correct visitors who have expanded their minds through genetic design and boosted them with Artificial Intelligence, we’ll instead encounter vast beings that live in deep space like huge whales in the ocean. They have no technology, and need none. Perhaps instead of Faster Than Light ships, these
creatures drift in and out of our dimension, employing some Einsteinian “Spooky Action at a Distance” Teleportation that is natural to their species. They don’t need technology, they have Eldritch Evil.
My point is, I’m not seeing a compelling argument that any alien visitors we may encounter will necessarily have evolutionary and technological traits similar to ours, even in their past history, and I still don’t see how “pro-social” aliens who value logic and might be prone to consider “ethics and morals” (from the OP) must be the default archtype of space traveler.
Well, there are a lot of ideas in your post, but it seems reasonable to me to examine them in a little more detail, to see if they are likely or unlikely.
This seems entirely feasible to me - but it raises the question - how do you get to another star using biology alone? A starseed with a light-sail, perhaps. If you send such a seed to another star you could, with luck, start a colony from scratch. J D Bernal suggested doing something similar way back in 1929. But the distances between the stars are great, and the process of growing a colony from seeds alone would be very slow - thousands, or even millions, of years might pass before the colony was ready to send out daughter colonies.
If there were two colonising species, one using slow ecological starseeds and one using hi-tech manufactured interstellar spacecraft, the hi-tech species would spread faster and further, and would be more likely to be the one we encounter.
There are probably differences in biochemistry between species from different stars that make any predation scenario unlikely. In fact interstellar species seem to be so rare that any parasitical strategy would be doomed to failure as well. If you have to wait millions of years for a vector to turn up, you aren’t going to spread through the galaxy very fast. But if space-faring races are commonplace, then maybe a parasitic strategy like that of the Xenomorphs makes sense.
A suitably advanced civilisation would either develop defences against alien parasites, or die trying. Either state of affairs means that the parasites have a restricted range, so are less likely to be the ones we encounter first.
Satisfyingly Weird, but almost certainly not a realistic prospect.
But you make a good point - truly alien extraterrestrials are likely to be almost incomprehensible to our minds - especially those which are millions of years ahead of us in technology. They might have so little in common with us that they barely notice us, and cannot interact with us at all - in which case their eusocial characteristics, whatever they are, will be irrelevant.
" …examine them in a little more detail, to see if they are likely or unlikely."
Exactly how do you determine that? Do you compare my ideas to know intelligent extraterrestrial species? Do you have any yardstick at all to measure the probability that some alien visitor will or won’t exhibit traits that fit some model you consider archtypical?
** “How do you get to another star using biology alone?”**
Some alien species could possibly achieve interstellar travel by means other than developing local technology. The Insects could perhaps spread their eggs in protected clusters attached to meteors, achieving escape velocity like the plasma bursts in “Starship Troopers” (movie)
…these creatures drift in and out of our dimension, employing some Einsteinian “Spooky Action at a Distance” Teleportation that is natural to their species. They don’t need technology, they have Eldritch Evil.
I gave two examples in the post.
" …the hi-tech species would spread faster and further, and would be more likely to be the one we encounter."
You’re presuming that technological societies will choose to devote time, money, and raw material to travel interstellar distances for either exploration or commercial/ political reasons (looking for resources, conquest, whatever), and you’re also presuming that the speeds of these technological aliens’ ships surpass the speeds of, say: meteors or asteroids that may be part of the natural habitat of an intelligent species; or interdimensional phasing, which may be the natural behavior of another intelligent species. If “faster than light” travel turns out to be impossible, maybe we’re more likely to encounter the “Worms” that inhabit “wormholes” rather than the “space diplomats and conservationists” that have decided to cancel their Space Program because it’s just not popular with the voters.
“There are probably differences in biochemistry between species from different stars that make any predation scenario unlikely.”
Where did I say these predators/prey were from different stars, or even different planets? And how do you jump to the conclusion that just because we haven’t evolved to be able to digest right-handed proteins or silicon-based tissue that other forms of life in the galaxy haven’t?
**
“In fact interstellar species seem to be so rare that any parasitical strategy would be doomed to failure as well.”**
Of course interstellar species seem to be rare … we’ve never encountered even one. I think that’s because we’re a non-spacefaring culture living on a tiny speck in what may be the backwater of the most desolate, out-of-the-way neck of the Universe. We have no way of determining how rare interstellar species are. The Drake Equation addresses extra-terrestrial life, but not necessarily intelligent spacefaring life.
This essay by Steven Hawking has some interesting observations on the subject of intelligent life:
http://www.hawking.org.uk/life-in-the-universe.html
**
“A suitably advanced civilisation would either develop defences against alien parasites, or die trying.”**
We’ve certainly developed some defenses against parasitic organisms, but there are plenty of pathogenic critters out there in our world, from microorganisms to insects and worms, that evolve and adapt to continue their predation against us. You surmise that an advanced race will develop technology that outstrips the adaptability of a predatory organism … what leads you to that conclusion? As long as just a few of the tech race die, they don’t have to “die trying” to overwhelm the predators. Maybe a third of Europe’s population was killed off by the Black Plague. We survived as a species without really trying.
“Satisfyingly Weird, but almost certainly not a realistic prospect.”
Why not? How do you gauge what is and is not realistic when conceiving of speculative creatures that have never been encountered? If you concede that intelligent aliens traveling through the galaxy may be wholly different from us, how do you establish just “how different” they may be?
There are certain laws of physics that can be applied in these cases. If you want to imagine interdimensional phasing and so on, then you should be aware that there is no basis for it in real physics.
Simply put; interstellar travel is very, very, very difficult, and civilisations are not going to be able to get from star to star by wishful thinking. They can take the slow route, and colonise using starseeds; but this will result in a much slower expansion than a civilisation that uses faster, more power-hungry methods.
Interstellar travel is so difficult, and brings so few returns on the effort, that it is a real possibility that no civilisation, ever, will try it. I think they might, but they will need a very large power-gathering infrastructure to even start considering the faster options. So a fast expansion practically demands high technology, something which seems to rule out many possible types of civilisation, such as philosophical dolphins without an industrial base.
The galaxy may be full of planets full of philosophical dolphins, or insectoid hive minds; but unless they make big, powerful spacecraft they will be limited to the speed of a drifting starseed at best, and we would probably never meet them.
So if the advanced aliens are benevolent are we also predicting future humans will be on the hippie dippie granola cruncher side of the violence spectrum? As opposed to, say, the Imperium of Man?
I note that Hawking seems to expect an alien civilisation to have reasonable levels of genetic engineering, artificial intelligence and other attributes of a high-tech civilisation. That doesn’t mean they will be predictable - far from it; once an alien civilisation aquires the capacity for self-redesign then they could morph into almost anything.
There are certain laws of physics that can be applied in these cases.
Presumably, we can apply all known Laws of Physics. I’m also suggesting that we look into some other Theories, such as the Multiverse Theory. Since some interstellar intelligent travelers are arguably far advanced from us in technology and science, they are doubtless going to have added some “Laws” to the books, as far as Physics, especially, one would think, Quantum Theory, goes.
** If you want to imagine interdimensional phasing and so on, then you should be aware that there is no basis for it in real physics.
**
This essay by Steven Hawking discusses traveling vast distances and even through time:
http://www.hawking.org.uk/space-and-time-warps.html
He concludes …“rapid space-travel, or travel back in time, can’t be ruled out, according to our present understanding. They would cause great logical problems, so let’s hope there’s a Chronology Protection Law, to prevent people going back, and killing our parents. But science fiction fans need not lose heart. There’s hope in string theory.”
Maybe there are Theories in the field of Physics we haven’t even posited yet. Is it possible we don’t know enough to dismiss what “may be” by asserting what “can’t be.”
**" …civilisations are not going to be able to get from star to star by wishful thinking." **
Thanks for the heads up. Where did I include “wishful thinking” in my speculations?
** They can take the slow route, and colonise using starseeds**
" …you’re also presuming that the speeds of these technological aliens’ ships surpass the speeds of, say: meteors or asteroids that may be part of the natural habitat of an intelligent species."
Repeating myself, if an alien race used asteroids as a means of conveyance, they may be going at a clip: 67,108 miles per hour (if my math is right) according to this source:
Since we can’t know the lifespan of our aliens, or if they are able to hibernate for long periods, or how long ago they embarked on their journey, I can’t agree that space ships that use recognizable technology and attain speeds that fall within the constrains of our present Physics knowledge will necessarily travel faster than bio-forms adapted to spread through the Cosmos … and since neither type of alien transportation has been observed, we’re simply guessing here.
However our alien visitors travel, and whatever resources and effort they must expend to traverse the Galaxy, the main gist of my opinion is that, since they are “alien”, their thought processes, motivations, abilities and inclinations may be so different from ours that the following suggestion:
**Interstellar travel is so difficult, and brings so few returns on the effort, that it is a real possibility that no civilisation, ever, will try it. I think they might, but they will need a very large power-gathering infrastructure to even start considering the faster options.
may not apply to them.
I’m thinking that you’re arguing what “can’t be” for a hypothetical alien with unknown attributes, and I’m simply offering what “might be” based on snippets of current speculation from several sources, my own theories included.
No offense is intended by any of the above.
**
Once again though: either all bets are off, or we can assign probabilities to some things.
I think like most people SirGalahad, you think the latter, but when you disagree with a conclusion being reached you resort to “I can contrive a scenario where that isn’t true”.
Well, I can contrive a scenario for the candy floss ships*. There’s not going to be anything we can say about ETs (or indeed, anything) that we can’t contrive around.
OTOH if we are assigning probabilities then there are certainly things we can say are more likely. It’s more likely that two random species meeting will be separated by millions of years development time because of how long the universe has been around and how separated star systems are.
- The Jiblonians have discovered that a particular kind of candy floss mesh is very effective for protecting against micrometeor impacts. They survive burning up in the atmosphere by first matching their target planet’s velocity exactly, then moving gently through its atmosphere.
“It’s more likely that two random species meeting will be separated by millions of years development time because of how long the universe has been around and how separated star systems are.”
Slowly, one more time. Exactly why does the age of the Universe and the dispersion of star systems lead you to the conclusion that it’s more likely that random species meeting will be separated by millions of years of development?
How likely is it? Is it as likely as throwing a 7? Is it a one in six chance? Is it nearly certain or is it 51/49? How did you arrive at your degree of certainty? Do you have a formula? Can you express it as a formula?
Maybe we just get unlucky and meet up with the Klingons instead of the Vulcans.
Because the window in which a species might appear is billions of years wide, with no obvious mechanism for synchronization. On Earth, life appeared when the universe was about 9.5 billion years old. Homo sapiens appeared just 200,000 years ago.
There’s no reason we know of why on Delta Vulpeculae life may not have started billions of years earlier or later, or why the period between basic and sentient life could not have been significantly different.
And I am not the first person to come to this conclusion.
Hawking, in the article you cited earlier, puts the window at about 7 billion years, for example.
Oops…Delta Vulpeculae itself is obviously a star.
NOVA Online | Death Star | A Bad Day in the Milky Way is where I first came across the idea. The notion is that all the energetic GRBs we’ve ever seen (and we see one GRB a day) have been as far as it’s possible to get across the universe. One of those up close (the figure cited there is 3000 ly) would sterilize Earth. Obviously, it’s going to sterilize everything else back along that path, too. OK, “entire galactic arm” is an exaggeration, not least because those arms are curved and a straight GRB beam isn’t going to run along one. But a minimum of 3000 ly pathway, that’s near-neighbourhood-cleansing enough for me.
Telling that you’d rather be “done” than actually provide any of the metrics or speculative bases I asked about.
Why you think that particular exchange makes your case for you, I don’t know. What I was saying was “you can’t have genetic engineering if you don’t have genes (or gene analogues)” - and again, you didn’t respond with anything remotely approaching a logical rebuttal.
You were the one who started with a difference of billions and dropped your concern to the millions. I was just curious where those goalposts would end up eventually. I’m otherwise just fine with saying you don’t understand evolution at all, if you think millions of years starting difference means necessary differences in “advancement”, and leave it at that.
Unless the starseed culture is that much closer. Or has a much higher density of dispersal.
Unless biochemistry is to some extent determined by extra-planetary seed material (look at the prescence oforganic materialin deep space)
…and there you go, assuming life on a star itself is a non-starter.
Yes, this is within the bounds of reasonable assumption; thanks! But this does not work as a reset button for our local neighbourhood, for several reasons.
The sterilised region even in a 3000 ly GRB is quite narrow, so non-sterilised regions would not be very far away from us in a lateral direction. The sterilised corridor would be 3000 light years long, but only a couple of hundred light years wide at most…
Secondly the process of stellar proper motion would randomly mix the sterilised stars in with the non-sterilised stars; after a few tens of millions of years that would mean that each sterilised star would be surrounded by non-sterilised stars, and the event might as well not have happened.
Thirdly these events are very rare, and would only reset the galactic developmental curve at long intervals; the last candidate event that might heve been a GRB that affected the Earth was back in the Ordovician, 440 mya (see Late Ordovician mass extinction - Wikipedia ) If a large number of planets were ‘reset’ 440 mya, each of those planets would recover at different rates; there is absolutely no reason to expect that they would all develop in synch with each other so closely that they would all produce intelligent species at the same level of technology in the current era.
Remember a civilisation only has to be 10,000 years behind us to be in the stone age, and a civilisation 10,000 years ahead of us could have technology that appears magical. 440,000,000 years/10,000 years= 44,000. That is the sort of fine tuning such a hypothesis would require; one part in 44,000. Ain’t gonna happen.
Whichever way you look at the GRB-reset theory, it doesn’t work.
@ MrDibble
I would say “don’t be silly” but that line has long been passed.
I was obviously correcting a typo, rather than making any statement about stars.
I’d be quite content to meet either type of civilisation; that is the slow colonisers with their organic technology or the fast colonisers with their big boom-ships. Can we predict that either type would be eusocial? The fast colonisers would have spacecraft that were also potent weapons, but if they have survived long enough to meet us that suggests they have developed a policy of not using these weapons on each other. It would be nice to think that they would extend his policy towards us, but I wouldn’t like to guarantee that.
The slow colonisers might also be eusocial, if we are lucky; their starseeds would hopefully be carefully designed to create a well-balanced ecology in their destination systems, and this might tend to rule out over-aggressive species. Or they might see us as potential risks that could affect their carefully balanced ecospheres - there is no guarantee that an ecologically-based civilisation would be friendly either.
I’m certainly not going to stick my neck out and agree with the OP’s premise; there are many ways that an alien civilisation can pose an existential risk to our species, even if they are basically well-intentioned.