Trump is teflon. Pence wouldn’t be. Trump’s every waking moment is devoted to firing up his base. Pence has no base and no fire. He would be carrying water in a sieve. Every move he and the incompetent ideologues Trump installed in the executive branch would be sliced and diced and they couldn’t turn them aside with tweets that scream witch hunt.
Moreover, he’d had no sway over Congress. The anti-Trumpists either are fleeing like rats or have to kowtow because Trump’s base is their constituents and Trump can turn them on or off at will. Pence has no such powers. He was a nothing governor and never will be more than that.
No greater gift could be bestowed upon the Democrats than a President Pence. And I think we will see that. I’m sticking to my prediction that Trump does not make it to 2020. I’m not talking impeachment. Far more likely is that the Presidency itself will kill an obese man who never exercises, needs a golf cart to move a few hundred feet, and has the same diet as a feral hyena. Look how the young, fit Obama aged. Or maybe he’ll just resign and declare himself King of Florida. No sane predictions are fit for our future.
Whatever. I’m for President Pence. I may buy one of Oprah’s old copies of The Secret and start picturing it in my mind until it inevitably comes true.
The one and only ONE thing Trump could do to get impeached would be to start acting like a liberal. If he started nominated pro-choice judges, pushing for raised taxes, action on climate change, universal health care, Republicans would suddenly find it in their hearts to look into all scandals around him and take some action. But that’s it. That’s the only thing. If Trump shot a random passerby in front of dozens of live cameras, 30 minutes later Fox talking heads would be talking about how it was a clear case of stand your ground defense and the president very clearly did the right thing.
One thing that defines the Trump base is an utter inability to admit they were wrong (even in the face of incontrovertible evidence) . If Trump got impeached they’d double-down on Pence. Granted he would not muster the Twitter cred but Trump’s base would assume the deep state was at work and they’d be diligent in supporting the new guy.
Exactly correct. As long as Trump is the Republican id, they won’t touch him. He publicly dangled a pardon for Manafort the other day, which by itself should be enough to kick him out.
He’s already nominating pro-choice judges, if by that you mean judges who would never, no matter the case, even consider reversing Roe v. Wade. He’s getting his list from the Heritage Foundation, and that’s, like, the #1 criterion for getting on their list. Because if the Supreme Court ever reverses Roe v. Wade, then the Republican’s can’t promise to reverse it any more to get elected, and then what would happen to the Make Rich People Richer agenda?
They’re driven by estimates of short-term partisan advantage, not respect for the nation or its institutions or defense of basic decency. If the Republican voter base becomes sufficiently revolted that they demand his removal, their Senators will follow. But, given how much else they’ve already accepted and even reveled in from the guy, what are the odds that there even is a line they won’t cross? Even criminal indictments could be handwaved away as the mere product of a witch hunt blahblahblah.
What will convince them to support impeachment is if they believe it will benefit them electorally. If, six months from now, he’s polling so low they think the country will punish them severely in 2020 - say another 40 congressional seats lost and 5 or more senate seats lost - they’ll flip on him like a gymnast trying for a medal.
And that is also the ONLY way he gets impeached. Democratic leadership is absolutely right to ignore impeachment unless the republican leadership first comes to them about it. Any other approach is a waste of time.
So then what will it take to see his numbers drop enough to threaten electoral “punishment?”
I mean, it’s less about his overall approval numbers as it is about his impact on individual races, right? Like, if he improves Republican Candidate X’s chances of winning in 2020, but harms Candidate’s Y’s, it’s going to be a weird calculus…and they’re going to lean toward the shithead they know until it’s really obvious he’s a net drag on the ticket.
Very strong evidence that he paid for an abortion might do it, but I think it would have to have happened in the last 10 years or they’ll just say that it happened before he turned Republican.
If his approval plunged to ~20% or so, and over ~60% of the populace supported impeachment, and if it became increasingly clear that Republicans would be destroyed in an upcoming election if they kept Trump, then they might.
But I think there are still enough ignorant, bigoted, and otherwise misguided Americans that there’s probably nothing short of a video of child-rape that could result in those numbers (and maybe not even that).
Ha, yea I figured most people would say it would take a loss of popular support but I was really interested in finding out If there was anything like, I don’t know, maybe MORALS or a concern for their legacy or the health of the country that might impel them to impeach. I can see where you stand on the matter though.
Nope right back atcha. Trump is a Cult of Personality. That’s almost impossible to follow, and has only been managed in extremely totalitarian countries. You can’t double down on someone with no personality. With Pence it’s back to politics as usual. Republicans can only win by being charged up to the max and Pence cannot do it.
I agree with this. His followers love thump because he is rude, crude, and obnoxious and says the things they’d like to say to women and minorities. Plus, he’s rich (or seems to be) and each of them is only one lottery win away from being just as rich.
Pence cannot fill [del]those shoes[/del] that combover. When Der Trumpster falls, his people will wander around in lost, whiny circles, bumping into each other and stationary objects. I wouldn’t be surprised if many of them decide never to vote again in any election. They won’t blame thump–they’ll believe the Dark Forces got him, and if the Dark Forces got him, what chance do they have?
It seems a little funny to be talking about what it would take to get Republicans to impeach, shortly after a mid-term election in which the Dems took over the House. Which is where articles of impeachment are adopted. If y’all think you have enough to impeach, go ahead. If you think it is in the best interests of the country, go ahead.
These kinds of threads are endlessly fascinating - one side really and truly does not understand what the other side thinks, and can never find out because you can’t hear anything except what you already believe.
Will the Democrats impeach if it doesn’t benefit them electorally?
The one thing that unifies the MAGA crowd is flat out hatred of liberals. They despise them and take glee in discomfiting them at any opportunity. They are animated by almost nothing else than that which is why they can spin on a dime decrying their hatred of Clinton doing “X” and then utterly ignoring when Trump also does “X”.
They are such huge fans of Trump because he has been the best at grinding liberal gears but his fans will latch on to whoever is next and be every bit as recalcitrant as they are today.
There is no way that Trump getting off the national stage makes them all go home and get rational all of a sudden.
Jan 22 2019 - 2 years +1 day after Trump’s inauguration. Then they can try to have 10 years of Pence. But they won’t impeach him - that would be bad form - he will step down for ‘medical reasons’. And it won’t be immediate - that would be too obvious.
