The Vichy Republicans are totally cowed at this juncture and I don’t see even one GOP Senator with enough backbone to vote to convict, let alone 20. And the 20 assumes every one of the 47 Democrats votes guilty, even Joe Manchin who is DINO if there ever was one.
What would Mueller’s report have to prove to change those closed little minds? Frankly, Trumps boast about shooting someone on Fifth Avenue seems to apply to the GOP members of the Senate. He looks bullet proof there.
IMO, the House Democrats instead of voting to impeach (not that Trump doesn’t deserve it), should put forth legislation to protect healthcare, the environment, voting rights, etc. As the Senate swats each one of those popular items down, the Democrats will gain issues for the 2020 election.
I think that Pelosi, et al, have already realized that it is more in their interests to have a hobbled trump humorously flailing about than to have him replaced by a (relatively) clean and (relatively) competent Pence. There will be no impeachment absent significant advance Republican buy-in.
Apropos of nothing, does anyone else remember that episode of Mr. Show where it’s revealed that the world is controlled entirely by a series of blowjobs? I feel like that’s never been closer to true than today.
I think both parties are going to be watching the polls closely. If the proportion of likely voters in favor of impeaching Trump reaches about 60% I think the Dems could pull the trigger and not suffer politically even if he doesn’t get removed from office. Current value is at around 40% even if he’s not removed from office. On the Senate side, I think there would need to be around 60% of **Republican **likely voters needed before the Senate has a chance of removing him from office. The current level is 5%. The results of the Mueller probe might raise levels high enough to overcome the first barrier, but not the second.
It’s really hard to say what it would take to get 20 GOP Senators to vote him out.
If it were proven that he arranged a secret meeting with Russian agents to get “dirt” on Clinton and then covered it up? I doubt that would do it, sad to say, but maybe.
If it were proven that he made a deal with Putin to ignore his aggression in Ukraine in exchange for large amounts of cash wired to his secret bank accounts? I think that would probably do it, but I’m not sure.
I think both of those scenarios are well within the range of reasonably possible findings of the Mueller investigation. I would be surprised if, at the very least, the first one isn’t proven.
And for all the fucked up, sleazy shit Trump has done while the GOP establishment stood by and chortled, and all the even more fucked up shit that massive circumstantial evidence suggests he has done, he hasn’t actually yet been indicted on numerous federal felony charges. Letting that slide would be a far brighter and redder line than any they’ve crossed for him yet.
From what I understand, it’s the policy of the Department of Justice that a sitting President can’t be indicted. His lack of indictment is no indication of his innocence.
Nope. That would not be nearly enough to convince Republican senators to remove him.
Nope. That still would not be nearly enough. “Fake news’ Witchhunt”
If Trump were to be shown, without a shadow of a doubt, with the strongest evidence available, that he personally helped Putin send an assassination team to murder top Democrat politicians… Then maybe, MAYBE you would get 10 -15 senators to vote to convict. Even then, I"m not sure. Most of them would probably line up to kiss Trump’s ring at that point.
Politically, the best way for Dems to hurt Trump is to let him hurt himself with his abject incompetence, which will eventually become impossible to ignore. At some point, the little light bulb has to flicker on, right? Of course the cost will probably be a major recession and political instability, but that’s the price we will most likely have to pay for November 8, 2016. Sorry, but the country can’t do something so irredeemably stupid as voting for Trump as president and not pay for it. Those chickens will eventually come home to roost.
What would certainly do it: instructions from their corporate donors.
What might do it: a direct attempt by Trump to take power away from the Senate for himself/the presidency.
What probably won’t do it, but I keep thinking would be fun to see the reaction: something like this - Trump is asked if he’s worried about the Senate convicting him. He says something like, “Ha, never. Those pathetic cowards do what I say. I say jump, they ask how high. Watch; they won’t even try to vote against me, because they don’t dare. I have all the power. The Senate is MINE. I. Own. Them.”
The only thing I have against impeachment is the fact that Pence would be more difficult to beat in 2020… and perhaps in 2024. Do we really need Republicans in the White House for TEN MORE YEARS???
You should remember that Nixon won in a landslide in 1972, and, unlike Trunp, got more votes than his opponent. Republican senators will start abandoning Trump if Mueller produces a smoking gun (or several) that convinces some of the Trump chumps that he’s guilty - and make their chances of keeping anything in 2020 pretty slim. They might convince themselves that Pence would give them a better chance of keeping power.
However I think the most likely result is Trump resigning to keep his kids out of the slammer.
We should also remember that Trump couldn’t even manage a majority of Republican primary votes. He won the nomination with a plurality, He’s not even the favorite of most Republican voters.