He is chained to his base. He can’t pivot and be something else at this point, not with pending criminal convictions. Even if he decided to somehow abandon the Republicans and defect to the Democrats, he’s done too much irreparable damage. Racism, polarization…that’s his brand. To the bigots of America, Trump is the Great White Hope. He can’t turn on them now.
To what?
The new Congress gets sworn in on January 3.
Quartz might not be aware that the new Congress is seated a few weeks earlier than a new President is. To be fair, it is kind of odd.
As for “the economy” tanking, it might be worth remembering that there’s not just one economy. It’s already pretty bad for soybean farmers, for instance, and for reasons directly attributable to Trump, and the Republican party is much more rural than urban.
I don’t think it’s likely, I just think this is the only thing he could do that would cause his base to abandon him. Even then, I think the possibility if him siding with the Democrats is extremely low. More likely, but still unlikely overall, is that he takes a liberal position on some issue because it happens to benefit him on that particular issue, and in the process will end up getting conservatives upset at him. Off the top of my head I’m not sure what that might be, but if it comes down to closing between what is good for Trump and what is good for the Republican base, Trump will go with what is good for himself. Should it so happen that issue, whatever it may be, comes down on the liberal side of things, at that point his base will start getting up in arms. I could also envision a scenario where he just loses it in public and starts lashing out at people, both left and right. That might do it as well.
I have one more though on the matter. If Republicans in Washington do turn on him, it will have to be in the next several months. My guess is that if it happens it will be by around September or October of next year. Any longer and they will ruin their chances in 2020.
I could see him slipping up and publicly proclaiming his position on abortion. That still wouldn’t alienate the truly brainwashed, but it’d still cost him a lot.
Not even that. I’d expect this: “He may personally be pro abortion, but he’s picking anti-abortion judges for the courts. That’s better than Hillary would do.”
Agree with this.
Now, if it could be proven with 100% certainty that Trump paid for an abortion for one of his mistresses, that MIGHT be enough for the base to turn against him. But that, of course, will never happen.
I don’t think anything in his past would move the needle. They know he’s a scumbag. Everyone knows that.
BUT, if he pushed a policy of easing abortion restrictions going forward and announced he was picking judges who supported Roe v. Wade, then he would take a hit with some of his base (however many honestly care about abortion).
Of course, he is picking judges who support Roe v. Wade. He’s going off of the Heritage Foundation list, and the last thing those guys want is to take away the one selling point that keeps getting plutocrats elected. But try to convince any of the single-issue abortion voters of that.
Trump’s supporters are brutally pragmatic; they like him for what he says and does, not for who he is.
I’ve often wondered if conservatives truly want the Roe v Wade bogeyman overturned, considering they’ve manged to nullify much of it in various states.
His supporters LIKE that he’s a scumbag. They wish they could come out of the closet and be scumbags right in the open like he is. Supporting a president that is a scumbag is just living vicariously.
Something I said in another thread:
What would certainly do it: instructions from their corporate donors.
What might do it: a direct attempt by Trump to take power away from the Senate for himself/the presidency.
What probably won’t do it, but I keep thinking would be fun to see the reaction: something like this - Trump is asked if he’s worried about the Senate convicting him. He says something like, “Ha, never. Those pathetic cowards do what I say. I say jump, they ask how high. Watch; they won’t even try to vote against me, because they don’t dare. I have all the power. The Senate is MINE. I. Own. Them.”
Oh, I don’t think so. It would still be the temptress’s fault for (1) getting pregnant in the first place and (2) extorting Donald into doing something awful.
So, a few more episodes of Trump Slump in the markets clearly attributable to the Dotard’s public temper tantrums, then?
The problem is what will get his base riled up. Abortion might hit some of the more religious types, but money is another problem. If we find out:
He hasn’t paid taxes in 20 years = (deplorable) “He’s a genius!”
He committed fraud against people with a phony university and hasn’t paid for it yet = “He’s a genius!”
His charity was only used for personal gain = “He’s a genius!”
I still think if we find out he’s really poor, that might be the best way to turn his base. I think that most people who support him do it mainly because he’s rich, therefore “He’s a genius!”.
Depends on who’s buying all those depressed-value securities, doesn’t it?
If they find out he’s poor, one of them will probably start a GoFundMe on his behalf.