This sounds a lot like the old “blue wall” theory.
And I don’t think Ohio would be safe D in such an election either. It would be safer than with probably any other alternative but I don’t look at Brown’s 2018 re-election and see someone who is invincible in the state. Jim Renacci was practically invisible and got 46.6% of the vote.
Brown is one of the possible nominees with the best goods for performing strongest in the Northern Path. Likely ability to strongly deliver on that path should be a key metric in choosing a nominee.
Count me in the camp that doesn’t understand why you concede that he can win PA and WI again, but don’t think he could do the same in MI (or possibly snag MN for that matter).
Right on. To clarify, I don’t think this map is the most likely one if it’s Brown v. Trump. The most likely one would IMO add several other states to Brown’s column. What I’m saying is that this strikes me as the most plausible map if Trump somehow pulls off another upset, even against Brown.
Looking at the Northern Path map, IMHO it sort of puts a ceiling on how well Trump can do. I think his ceiling is the 2016 map plus Minnesota. Is Sherrod Brown the candidate best positioned to succeed on this Northern Path? That remains to be seen, but I doubt being from Ohio would be that big of an advantage. I think that Trump has a floor as well as a ceiling, and Ohio is one of the states below the floor. I don’t see Trump losing Ohio under any but the most bizarre of circumstances.
ETA. If Trump loses Ohio, that probably means he already lost in places like Florida, North Carolina, and maybe even Arizona and Texas. I’ll even go out on a limb and predict that Trump is going to do better in Ohio than he will in either Arizona or Texas.
He’s FOR getting everyone covered, he’s not against universal coverage. But he also knows what messaging works better in the North/Midwest/blue collar states, especially with blue collar union voters who often think a mad rush toward “socialized medicine” threatens the very nice benefits they’ve negotiated.
My point is, he may not be signing on to one specific path to universal coverage, but that’s not the only (or even necessarily the best) path to that goal. If he’s a strong candidate to beat Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, saying that he’s dead to you because of one issue is a little ridiculous.
It’s possible that Trump has a good shot to beat Brown in Ohio. But as I see it, under that theory of the case, he is virtually unstoppable against any other Democratic nominee. I’m saying that Brown is the only one who can potentially make a significant difference in the Electoral College due to which state he represents. Maybe I’m overlooking someone, but I sure can’t think who it would be. (Saying Biden would have a good shot at that Northern Path is the closest to it, but that’s still not about “flipping” a state due to his home state advantage.)
Well, of course that was hyperbole. I didn’t mean I will never consider voting for him under any circumstances.
But I believe strongly that we have waited long enough for the healthcare we deserve in this country. And given that there are several strong candidates in the field who share that view, I’m not currently interested in supporting anyone who doesn’t. Come this time next year, if polls are showing him more likely than his rivals to beat Trump, he will have my undivided attention.
To add some detail - he is against throwing out the Affordable Care Act and to expand Medicare to those 50 and over as a voluntary buy-in.
The plan would be to further expand Medicare as the expansion succeeded.
It’s not just what works as messaging. It’s not just pragmatically deciding to go for a goal that might get passed. It’s what can work as something that can be successfully executed and help people who need help the fastest. And having the backbone to say it in a primary landscape that is not wanting to hear it.
Brown’s Northern Path strength is based least on his home state and does not depend on bringing Ohio into the D column. If he does that, and he might, it would be icing on the cake.
He has real cred with rural and working class voters of all sorts while also having a long history of real progressive bonafides. His connection to voters in MI, PA, WI, MN … is helped by being of the region perhaps, but it more is what his record is and how he approaches the issues. He is a candidate who can articulate progressive goals (and whop could actually execute them as President) who at the same time undercuts Trump’s strengths.
His track record in support of universal coverage, for example, is deep and serious; it is not trendy and jumping on a bandwagon for soundbites. Here’s his OnTheIssues report. Allow me to highlight his 100% rating by The American Public Health Association (APHA), the oldest and largest organization of public health professionals in the world.
I’m looking for a candidate that can win the votes of right people, not the most people. We won the most people last time, but lost where it mattered. As a self-employed 44-year-old father of two, I want European-style socialized medicine yesterday. But I’d rather have someone who can beat the shit out of Trump and actually get positive shit done than someone who squawks my deepest desires into the cold wind and farts angrily while they die a sorry death.
And can somebody help me with the pronunciation? For years, just seeing his name in print, I’ve pronounced it “shur-ROD.” Now I’m hearing it’s pronounced “SHARE-odd?” Is that right?
It’s gonna take a while for that to roll off my tongue.
(1) Is it just a home-state advantage? Or would Brown’s status as an Ohioan carry over to Pennsylvania — still the swing state #1 in importance? Biden would have a huge home advantage in Pennsylvania, I think. How about Klobuchar? Would her popularity in Minnesota carry over into other Midwest states?
(2) EVERY Democrat wants to work toward UHC. It’s a complex matter; soundbites aren’t the whole answer. Many smart people decided that ACA was the key first step. PLEASE don’t reject a candidate just because he or she doesn’t parrot the exact Sanders-AOC party line.
(3) IIUC, the election of Brown would almost automatically cost the Dems a Senate seat. That is just too huge … unless you can prove that Brown would have significantly better November chance than anyone else. Can you?
