A shame; he had a lot to contribute to the debate. Smart guy.
As has been mentioned, if he won it would mean one less Dem seat in the Senate. Possibly he didn’t want that likelihood thrown in his face; and of course there are many costs involved (psychic as well as financial) in running for President.
I’m not seeing that as a concern that probably influenced him. Senator isn’t exactly an endangered species among the declared candidates. There’s six of them declared. Since Brown won his current term last November they can’t even try to paint it as giving up on protecting the seat in 2020. He doesn’t need to protect his seat till 2024.
Booker on the other hand needs to defend his Senate seat in 2020.
But if Brown were elected President, he would have to resign from the Senate, and the Governor of Ohio, who is a Republican, would appoint his successor. AFAIK all the other Senators running come from States with Democrat governors, so their election wouldn’t result in the loss of a Senate seat.
None of this conjecture about Senate seats matters at this point. With Brown out of the race we are basically doomed to a second four years of this President continuing to shred the Constitution.
There aren’t any Democrats running who have a prayer of winning. And even if Biden gets in he has so much baggage the GOP hit machine will destroy him. Plus the Berniecrats will never support him because he isn’t “pure”.
Yep, that’s the issue (the GOP governor appointing a replacement for Brown). Apparently Brown may have disliked the prospect of personal attacks, too:
I liked Brown over Biden and Sanders, too, for basically the reasons you indicate.
I’m not so sure about “doomed,” though. I still think a surge in black and possibly Latino voting is possible with the right candidate–Biden or Sanders not being that candidate (though Brown + Harris could have been pretty awesome).
I think he’s still in play to be tapped for the second spot on the ticket. Would make the GOP nominee (who might be someone besides Trump BTW) spend more money and time defending Ohio at least.
What I’ve seen in the last few weeks is that moderate white male Democrats are withdrawing from the election, which tells me that they’ve done their research and concluded that they can’t win the nomination.
Don’t get me wrong: I think the nation can do without white male candidates for a while, and I’m all for opening up the field. But politically, I worry about the implications of a party in which white male pragmatist center-left moderates feel like they can’t even compete. Obama might not have been white, but he was a pragmatist, which was why a lot of people wanted to vote for him. It seems like the Democrats are doubling down on Bernie Broism.
Brown pushes Trumpist trade policy, so no great loss here.
It may well be that all of the moderate white men are dropping out because they’ve concluded they can’t compete with Biden , though. Given that Biden is leading all the polls, it seems a bit early to give up on centrist white guys as a group.
Anzari had an interesting comment on 538 this morning, to the effect that Brown’s decision might have been influenced by the fear that, to compete in a Democratic primary, he would need to have taken more liberal stances on race and gender issues than he has previously, and that if he didn’t win the nomination, that could come back to haunt him in his next Senate re-election race.
Brown is far from the only Dem who could beat Trump. The most popular candidate will be “Not Donald Trump.”
On another note, Florida will be a tough get unless Dems can turn out the voters whose voting rights were restored last year. And even then we can’t be sure that they will be a blue demographic, or at least blue in enough numbers to swing that election.
I don’t think Texas is a Dem get in '20 either. It’s looking like Georgia will flip before Texas and I don’t think Georgia will flip before '24 or even '28.
Given that regaining control of the Senate is the most challenging hurdle the Dems face before they can enact any of their policy agenda, I’m quite relieved that Brown has decided to stay in the Senate.
Assuming there’s a Dem in the White House in 2021, the Dems need to pick up 3 seats, net, in order to get to control via 50 Senators and the VP. Doug Jones is almost certain to lose his re-election race in Alabama next year, so they need to win 4 other seats, which will already be a challenge. (538 rates the odds at somewhat under 50-50, IIRC.) If Brown’s not in the Senate in 2021, they’d need to win five other seats, and that’s getting even more dicey, even in what should be another Dem wave year.
Quite simply, the Dems need to throw everything they’ve got into winning the Senate. And once they gain control, they’ll need to kill the filibuster. With the possible exception of Bernie, I figure that anyone who does well enough in the primaries to win the nomination has a much better chance of beating Trump than the Dems have of winning the Senate.
Agreed.
Yeah, the way I rank the 2020 Dem Presidential prospects in currently GOP-leaning Sun Belt states is: AZ > NC > FL > GA > TX.
And in a crowded field how many others share your lane(s) is pretty important. Even before actual voting starts.
So in those terms … Dopers who had Brown as one of their top considerations and only those Dopers, who do you now have as your favorite two or three?
Not that we are representative of the country but it might give some sense of who his dropping out helps.
I’m left with Harris as my default and close second choice but going to look more closely at Booker and would be fine but not excited with Biden.
And that I think is the biggest problem with Biden. He’s fine. But we could use someone who can excite (without being overly divisive) and I don’t him as that.
And to those who supported Sanders last time and only them, are you seriously considering jumping to anyone else this time? If so who?
Well, I’m not that excited about any of them right now, but I’m off-the-charts excited to beat Trump in 2020. Luckily, we have time to get worked up into a lather.
I’m a loyal cadre of the Political Revolution.
I don’t see abandoning Bernie under any circumstances until next spring, and only then if polls clearly show someone else with a better chance of beating Trump.
If he were to suddenly drop out, I guess right now I’d lean toward Warren, while also looking closely at Harris, Booker and Gillebrand in approximately that order.
I wonder if it would be interesting to do a mock election in ranked-preference format?
To clarify, Warren would be my clear second choice in a vacuum, and I think she’d be a great President, but here’s where I must confess to having my own subjective concerns about “electability”.
Oh yeah, since he just got in, I’ll add Inslee to my list of potential Plan Bs.
Inslee, Beto, and Booker for me. I am a Minnesotan and was high on Klobuchar, but after reading about her treatment of staff (not the comb thing, which is strangely the thing everyone is focusing on but which I find highly shruggable), she’s dead to me. I won’t even vote for her in her next Senate primary, although I will definitely vote for her in the general election.