I think the first half of the sentence about upending the political order of the US is so close to fact that I am fine calling it that. It is more a matter of opinion whether such a thing would favor Trump.
True. A disgrace.
Yes, it is my opinion that an actual invasion (actual implementation, not severe saber-waving or build-up that doesn’t lead to an actual invasion, which is more probable but still very improbable, IMO) by the US of a NATO ally is so unrealistic as to be inconceivable.
I said that the probability of Trump taking autocratic power of the US, which would ISTM require full military support, is less than 1%. I think something like that would have to happen in order for Trump to invade a NATO ally, so the chance the US would invade Canada is also less than 1%.
All IMHO, sir!
It’s not hand-waving away to call something extremely low-probability and unrealistic. Nor do I not take Trump’s words seriously. We have a literal psychopath as president, and the current situation is untenable for much longer. I just don’t think an invasion of Canada is going to be a part of the shit that goes down.
If you took DJT’s words as seriously as you claim then you would be able to see we are rapidly sliding into autocracy without the military doing anything.
Yesterday DJT told the Gov. of Maine, “We are the Federal law”. That’s an exact quote and is about as autocratic as any statement could be. Combined with the stupid post of him proclaiming himself King and it is pretty clear where this is going. There has been no pushback on this from the GOP or any military leaders.
I think it’s helpful to speak in terms of probabilities. Do you think this is definitely going to happen? 90%+?
I think with his current methods and level of support, and assuming no military intervention, Trump’s chances of becoming dictator are less than 1%. Assuming that military intervention is possible (taking either side or splitting between sides), I think still less than 1%.
Not really, as he acknowledged that he would “see you in court” and would win. Thus, at least for right now, he is saying he would follow the judgment of the court. As for the meaning of the statement itself, he means that his executive orders have the force of federal law. It’s a dickish, antagonistic way of putting it (again, bad methods), but not absurd on its face.
It’s not good. It’s chaotic. It’s untenable. I am far from assuming that this psycho is going to win, however.
See my link above for current GOP pol/pundit pushback.
Two retired generals, Mark Milley (Trump’s former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff) and John Kelly, Trump’s former Chief of Staff, have publicaly denounced Trump in strong and explicit terms. I think it’s safe to say that active military are not going to speak out against their Commander in Chief unless they are pushed to the limit. We could be fast approaching that point.
I think it is highly unlikely the US will invade Canada in the next four years. But last year, I would have said there was no chance. Now, the chance is well under 5%. Maybe 1%. But that is high enough that smart people should still be thinking about it. Trump claims Canada has nothing that he wants. Trump certainly has little to offer Canadians.
Trump elevating middle rank soldiers and firing military generals certainly is worrying many in Washington (limited gift link).
Your link admits these are exceptions, not the norm.
And two retired generals are not going to have much influence on current officers.
ETA @Smapti I for one am not aware of a “definitely going to invade” bandwagon or of any posters on such. People are simply expressing concern about his belligerent rhetoric toward Canada. There a multiple examples of that in this thread.
I agree with that. What I don’t agree with is worrying to an excessive degree about it without recognizing the implications–the things that would have to happen in order to make that possible.
To me, it’s more a case of “if these guys are willing to say it, there are more who have thought it but not said it.” I.e., I do not assume that the military is in the tank for Trump, nor do I assume the opposite.
Some people are expressing extreme fear about the possibility without saying how possible they think it is.
Concern about the rhetoric? I am 100% with you on that.
Well the new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff today said he “loves” Trump, would “kill for (him)” and donned a MAGA hat. But yeah, not at all political!
Note, I don’t think the US is sure to invade because of Trump, but because of fascism; if anything Trump dropping dead would make it more certain. Canada will be conquered, Mexico genocided.
I think @RickJay is greatly overestimating the likelihood of an American invasion, but estimating the likelihood of Trump taking autocratic power in the US at under 1% is tremendously Pollyanna-ish.
Here’s the thing: Trump clearly thinks that piling on all the crazy right now, you know, really front-loading the mofo, is the thing to do. And I don’t think he is doing that because he has come to the rational conclusion it would be in his self-interest; he is doing that because he just frickin’ feels like it (his constant decision-making modality).
And the thing is, he’s wrong. Hitler was much more powerful when he became chancellor and was dealing with a much weaker government. He didn’t waste his time drawing dicks with sharpies on things just to piss everyone off. He had a plan for taking power, and it required a lot of steps and finesse, and he went about it with many people whom he had trusted for a decade or more and who were ready to roll. Plus, he said openly and explicitly from the start that his aim was autocracy. In particular, he paid great respect to President Hindenburg (who had the power to fire Hitler and was revered by the military) until he died in 1934, as well as to the military itself.
Trump, of course, has shit all over the military for the past eight years. He’s stupid, so he assumes he will have their loyalty no matter what.
I would say that Trump is not even 1/10 as prepped and ready as Hitler was, and for the latter taking power was a rather slow, step-by-step task.
You are familiar with the Swiss cheese model, right? There are a lot of filters he would have to pass through in order succeed. You multiply those percentages and the number becomes low pretty quickly.
It’s probably a good topic for another thread, but one big filter is this: it’s not even clear that Trump intends to become dictator. Another: if he intends this, it’s not clear that he has plan at this stage to do so. And this is before we even get into those who would oppose him, which would be a very large and multifaceted coalition indeed.
So there is someone more facistically better than Trump waiting to take over? I don’t see it.
This is the irrational knickers-wetting thing I was talking about above. Again, I like your politics, it’s nothing personal, but this is just plain ridiculous.
The entire Republican party. Trump himself isn’t really fascist; that would require him to value a cause larger than himself and he doesn’t. Fascism is a standard he is psychologically incapably of rising to.
But when he dies the party will be there, and the true believers will be in position to take power, sideline or kill the billionaires and finally have the orgy of genocide they’ve dreamed of for so long.
Maybe this will be confirmed next week. But mainstream journalists have had 24 hours to investigate, and no one has found witnesses to back up Trump’s hat, love, or kill-for claim.
I like Aeschines’s filters idea.
Canada comes third after the Canal Zone and Greenland, due to your having a stronger military. If either Panama or Denmark/Greenland do not work out well from a DJT POV, either because of there being more resistance than he expected, or – this is the big one – because an invasion lowered Trump’s approval polling, Canada on the military back burner. And the longer an invasion of Canada is delayed, the more chance there is for the Trump dictatorship to collapse (as all dictatorships do, sooner or later).
