Trump has the examples he needs. Netanyahu and Putin have not suffered politically from their blatant invasions. Same for Trump sending troops into US cities. You take some flak, but when it’s done it can’t be undone, you win. Also, he has the example of France in WW2. Faced with the destructive fact of war, France chose capitulation.
Given the problem, I am certain the US military can come up with a quick, cheap take over plan. A few seal teams to secure the people and places of governance. Rapid destruction of air combat capability. Occupation of air and rail control centers. Then a rambling delusional Presidential demand for unconditional surrender to avoid destructive bombardment.
The fact that this is ridiculous and outrages only makes it more likely. Trump needs a crisis before next November. Is this it? How would the Canadians respond? How would US citizens respond?
Depending on how that goes he may go for invading Canada, or Greenland, or Venezuela.
Of those 3 Canada is the one more capable (if not much) of fighting back.
Venezuela is the one with less international allies (Greenland is part of Denmark, which is part of the EU).
So, after or during his National Reorganization Process to get rid of the internal subversives he will probably bomb Venezuela if he needs to score cheap points.
After that is Greenland and after that, if he’s still alive/in power, Canada.
Canada is the closest culturally. Using the model of France, he leaves the Canadian government and economy intact and only requires that they support his goals - we absorb the military, combine some agencies, merge the currencies .
I honestly think it would be a complete shitshow and might actually get him impeached.
The U.S. has not fought a battle on our territory since the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, and has not fought a war within the borders of the contiguous states since the Civil War. Unprovoked war on our border with a peaceful neighbor is unthinkable to me, and I think it would result in a shock to the country.
I also don’t think Canada is going to just roll over. And the world would treat the U.S. as a pariah state.
I actually think taking over Greenland is far more likely—mainly because almost nobody lives there and they couldn’t do much about it—and even that would have lots of repercussions.
I just don’t see this happening. The Canadians would never stand for this. The U.S. would have to forcibly occupy the whole country. Even if the Canadian military was quickly defeated there would be retaliatory guerrilla and insurgency attacks that would never end.
That’s the immediate reaction. But begin to weigh the reality of war against the difference in the two life styles involved. I suspect most would accommodate it, the rest take advantage of the opportunity.
They could move their SSBNs within striking distance of the entire East Coast and issue an ultimatum. Not saying they would, but after a US invasion of Canada, all bets are off the table.
How do you mean? I’m Canadian and as far as I am concerned, I’m way better off here than I would be in the US. Doubly so if Canada is invaded and I’m now a second-class citizen of the US.
Probably. There’s nothing they could do besides launch nukes, which would be worse than doing nothing. Canada is more or less impossible to defend from the US’s conventional forces. It would turn into extremely ugly partisan/guerilla warfare against the occupation (which UK/France might well aid and abet). Ugly because the border is effectively impossible to seal in either direction, most Canadians can pass for Americans without much difficulty, and some might not be particularly fastidious about targeting only military targets.
I’m optimistic it won’t happen. There is finally a little pushback on the domestic agenda (Newsom, Pritzker, maybe congressional Dems not folding on this shutdown thing) and an actual invasion of Canada is a huge, huge step. If it happens, it will be after the ‘26 and ‘28 elections are turned into shams and Trump’s cemented his power in his third term. Not as unthinkable a scenario as I’d like, but not a fait accompli just yet.