I disagree. I think there is a potential alignment shift here among black voters.
The Democrats are listening to Black activists, Black politicians and Black ‘elites’. They’re not listening to the Black middle class. You know, the people who actually live in the areas where all the violence is happening.
Zogby and Rasmussen both have Black support for Trump over 30% now. If that’s even remotely close, it represents a huge swing. A Fox news poll had him at 19% Black support back in April. Trump only got 8% of the Black vote in 2016.
Also, it’s possible that election models are not capturing this, which could make the polling undercount Trump support.
If Trump even gets 20% of the Black vote, he’s got a big advantage over 2016.