Too late!
. I’m not panicky, and have faith that at least 55% of our population is sane. My concern is more that the fix is, somehow, in. Like if there was a bunch of new Russian money moving the line. And a Supreme Court directly or indirectly backing a fixed result. Couldn’t possibly happen, right?
Just playing along here: if these no doubt entirely real people believe Trump’s going to fix all the anarchy, why are they buying guns?
Bonus question: are you actually trying to claim that whatever Trump thinks he is doing is not “explicit racial identity politics”?
Asking for a friend.
Why is it dumb? It’s based on polling numbers.
If the election was held tomorrow, based on the most recent polls of who people plan on voting for, Biden would carry twenty-eight states and receive 367 electoral votes to Trump’s twenty-two states and 171 electoral votes. And that’s if I’m generous and give Trump Texas.
Granted, it’s July and we shouldn’t be complacent. But the polls have been pretty steady and what movement there is has generally been away from Trump.
Who was the last re-elected while never having an approval rating above 50%? I’m not aware of any.
I know several people who would never have voted for President Trump before the increase in anarchy and explicit racial identity politics. Now they want to buy guns and vote for the orange one.
Presumably that’s because, having experienced the increase in anarchy and explicit racial identity politics under Trump, they find they like it and they want more?
Trumps son gave the signal to the faithful, by his “joke” that it is time to now start calling Biden a pedophile. I am seeing that on Facebook.
The "defund the police’ idiots handed trump quite a few points.
That’s an unsubtle way to call someone a liar.
When they play the videos of anarchy in the streets there aren’t any redhat wearing geezers stealing, smashing and burning up the city. If you don’t think the optics of street violence is a turnoff for many then you might be surprised if November isn’t a cakewalk for Biden.
You’re saying that these people are stupid? That, observing these things to happen under a Trump presidency, they will conclude that voting for Trump is the way to stop them happening?
Obviously, in a country as large as the United States, there will be several stupid people, and possibly these are the ones you know. But most people will grasp pretty readily that, if you want things to change, you have to vote for change.
Actually it would be a cakewalk for Biden. Most people are capable of seeing Trump is making our racial problems worse. So the worst the racial situation gets, the more they will want to remove Trump from office.
And there’s the simple fact that when times are bad, voters in general tend to blame the person in charge. At the least, why would they feel like rewarding someone who’s not helping?
Yes, that is accurate. These people are stupid. Also racist. Look, Liberals don’t seem to understand how conservatives think. They don’t view wearing masks and social distancing as a necessary precaution against spreading a dangerous virus. Nor do they view Black Lives Matter protests, de-funding the police, or tearing down Confederate statutes as a fight against injustice. And they certainly don’t view any of this as the result of Trump’s corrupt mismanagement of his Presidency.
What Conservatives see is Democrats and Liberals as a bunch of weirdos and outsiders who don’t belong here attacking their freedoms and way of live with stupid social experiments and social justice warrioring so they can take benefits they didn’t earn.
In other words, they don’t want “change”. They want Trump to keep things they way they were.
Sure, this describes Trump’s base. But he needs to reach out beyond his base in order to get re-elected. (Especially if he keeps encouraging his base to kill themselves.)
Who is Trump reaching to outside his base? He looked like he was going to make a play for the Christian conservative vote, but he seems to have gotten bored with that. He’s alienated every demographic outside of straight white men. His bungling of foreign policy and economic policy has cost him the support of national security voters and business voters.
So who’s voting for Trump? Do you really think there’s anyone who voted against Trump in 2016 but is now convinced that Trump has done a fine job and deserves another term?
Who’s voting against Trump? All of the people who figured out he was incompetent before the last election and voted against him that time. And all of the people who have figured out he’s incompetent since the last election and will be voting against him this time.
Might have something to do with this:
One factor may be because a recent Hill-HarrisX poll showed Biden’s lead dropping from 10 to 4%:
https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/504724-poll-bidens-2020-lead-narrows
I’m in agreement with this even though there may not be many people who figure out that he’s incompetent and then don’t vote for him, it will certainly be more than the other way around.
However, there are a couple other questions:
Who will be voting for Biden? Most of the new voters in the upcoming Presidential election.
Who will NOT be voting for Trump? Most of the people who died in the past 4 years.
Who will NOT be voting for Biden? Most of the people who will be disenfranchised by upcoming election shenanigans in Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
All of the above factors point to a Biden win except the last one, and it remains to be seen how successful it will be.
Betfair is a UK-based international betting exchange which is not bookmaker odds - the prices are set by people backing or laying against each other.
It does a little bit of interrogation of the data and can show an implied chance of a selection winning and this is Trump right now - hovering around 35%:
I don’t think Biden winning 28 states is a blowout. 40 or more would be a blowout but that’s unlikely since there are more than 10 states that are very red. And yes some of them are small such as Alaska, Dakotas, Wyoming, Montana, etc.
LOL. OK.
But none of these explanations tells us what data they use to determine these odds, nor how they get it.
Of course. You see, the whole point of using that term (“racial identity politics”) is to pretend that when whites do it it’s just normalcy.
Trump’s white “racial identity politics” voters are his precious. Alone, they may not be sufficient for a win, but they’re always there as long as he occasionally feeds them. When he does something particularly inept, he invariably will stoke them for a cheap high.