I don’t feel that Republicans have the popularity they like to claim. The reality is more people have voted for the Democratic candidate in six of the last seven elections. That’s why the Republican party puts so much effort into blocking people from voting; they haven’t been able to rely on winning an election since Reagan was around.
As for the people who genuinely do vote Republican, there may not be a lot of them who cross over and vote for Biden. But I feel a lot of diehard yellow dog Republicans will decide to just stay home.
I disagree, I feel moderate Democrats are Biden’s core. It’s the more left wing Democrats who wish they could be voting for a different candidate, like Sanders.
If there’s a need for people to get excited (which I’ll admit I don’t understand) I feel we can count on Trump to bring it. People who may not be excited to vote for Biden will still feel excited about voting against Trump.
Right, it’s really unbelievable in a nation of 300 million plus that those who are productive and pay taxes and have to leave the downtown before curfew because of riots, random shootings, mass looting, and arson might think that personal security matters more than continued civil unrest encouraged by local Democrats.
It’s really unbelievable that seeing videos of people being dragged from cars and beaten or shot as occurred in Atlanta when that young mother lost her daughter because she made a wrong turn and got shot by lawless thugs might be concerned that so-called Democratic leaders let that happen by their failure to maintain law and order and in some cases explicitly encourage the lawlessness. Tyler Perry to pay funeral expenses for girl shot in Atlanta Btw, where is BLM for that murder? Oh, it doesn’t fit their political narrative?
I really thought that the bubbles folks built around themselves prior to 2016 would have been permanently burst by the result of that election.
Sure, maybe I’m worried a little bit about the rioting. But that’s all happening miles away so I don’t feel it as an immediate danger.
Contrast that with the virus. Correctly or not, I feel it is an immediate, and deadly, danger to my family and other loved ones.
I’m much more concerned about the latter than the former. Thinking about how to keep my family safe, how will my son go to school, etc. takes up much of my thoughts every day. The riots don’t matter at all.
No,the Republicans are not going to get the blame.If there are more incidents like the Seattle CHAD zone, voters will blame the democrats,because 100% of the protesters are democrats. And if statues of George Washington and Thomas Jefferson and AbeLincoln get thrown into the same garbage pit as the Confederates, democrats will get all the blame.Again–because 100% of the people doing the damage are dems.
Combined with the scary threat to defund destroy the police, it could easily cost Biden 2 or 3 percent of his support,maybe even 5 per cent. And he is only leading Trump by 5 percent in most of the battleground states.
The odds for “next president elected” are now Biden -145 and Trump +130. Interestingly, Hillary Clinton is 3rd at +7500, followed by Mike Pence at +8000. I assume Hillary will fall once Biden names his VP candidate. The site is purewage.com, but you wouldn’t be able to get in without a password. It is a small site used by locals, but likely get their line feeds from one of the larger bookmakers.
Also interesting is that the lines for “Winning Party” is Dem -155 and Rep +130, which presumably takes into account the chances that Biden doesn’t make it to November.
Although he did not have an opponent who specialized in childish teasing, nor did he face an opposition voter base who’s energized by childish teasing.
Biden may be a less teasable name than Dukakis, but Trump & his motley crew of followers are far better teasers. It’s appalling that these are the things upon which leadership of a large nation hinges. But it does.
I don’t know that Trump will be re-elected. I see it as far too close to call today.
But I wholeheartedly agree with your diagnosis about the unrest. It’s helping Trump now and IF it continues unabated through the election it will cost the Ds, including but not only, Biden many percentage points of support.
Which will tilt at least some contests over to the R side. Whether it’ll be enough to cost Biden the election is, IMO, far too early to tell.
Said another way, COVID is Trump’s massive, unpredictable, mostly uncontrollable Achilles Heel. Unrest is Biden’s massive, unpredictable, mostly uncontrollable Achilles Heel.
Which proves more damaging to who over the next 2ish months until the mail-in balloting starts will determine the outcome.
Bottom line: IMO any D who's confident today is a damn fool. Just as they were damn fools this time 4 years ago.
Trump probably needs an approval rating of at least 43%, give or take a percentage point, to be competitive on election night. Right now he’s barely hovering around 40% according to most polls I’ve seen, so he’s clearly on the ropes and Republicans know it. His campaign strategist Brad Parscale knows it.
Still, be careful with predicting Trump’s doom. Presidential elections are different from midterms. Presidents that lose midterms typically do better in general presidential elections due to the fact that losing midterms often makes an incumbent’s supporters of what’s at stake. So his hardcore base will be more motivated to show up at the polls, and this might include a fair number that stayed home in 2018 and in other races deemed less important.
Trump is hemorrhaging independent and moderate voters, which should give Biden a major advantage as long as he can find a way present a progressive vision that inspires young voters without alienating older more conservative ones.
When I first saw this I shook my head and wondered why obviously old and superseded information was being posted. It all sounded pre-corona and pre-resistance. When I saw the actual dates I was flabbergasted.
I just did what I should have done immediately: went back and checked the source, primarymodel.com.
Lo and behold, it is old news. Norpoth’s model consists of two pieces of data: who occupies the White House and who wins the highest percentage in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. That’s what gives Trump a 91% chance of winning with 362 electoral votes.
To do that Trump would have to win all the red states, AND ALL the too-close-to-call battleground states, AND ALL leaning blue states, AND ALL likely blue states, AND at least one solidly blue state in the 270towin consensus prediction map. That would require Trump to win at least ten more states than he did in 2016 without losing a single one.
Nobody in the country outside of Trump’s masturbatory fantasies believes this can happen. It was a wildly optimistic prediction when it was made in March, before Trumps utter failure in handling the corona crisis and his utter failure in addressing the country’s abrupt shift on protest issues.
So why in the world is anybody talking about this now? Because right-wing news dredged him up to reassure the worried faithful. Lou Dobbs, Laura Ingraham, The NY Post, the Washington Times, have all had him spout his March prediction in recent weeks.
It’s stinks like four-month-old garbage.
Can Trump still win? Of course. We’ve had two meteor strike political bombshells this year and another can happen at any time. But if so, it will merely further obsolete Norpoth’s numbers, not confirm them.
You guys need to work harder. You’ve only said this about five times so far in this thread. You need to repeat it at least ten times before it becomes true.
Allow me to once again point out that Trump is sitting on top of this mess. He will get the blame for it. Sure, not from the crowd that believes a special star was in the sky on the day their Beloved Leader was born. But from all of the people who actually make a choice over who they vote for.
Some of those people are going to feel Trump caused this by endorsing racism. Some of these people are going to feel Trump has shown weakness by not crushing the rioters with tanks. But they’re all going to see it’s happening on Trump’s watch.
I think Trump’s plan is to drop some bombshell attack against Biden. We’ve already seen hints of this (the Trump people can’t keep a secret). They’re planning on another Pizzagate attack and are going to accuse Biden of being a child molester. I’m assuming they’ve found somebody who will accuse Biden if the money is right. They’re probably waiting until around October.
This is the dumbest thing that I have seen and to be fair I have seen it in many, may other places. Even Trump’s campaign has an ad running that shows rioting and calls it “Joe Biden’s America.”
The ad used footage from Trump’s America. This is Trump’s America.
This unrest is happening under Donnie’s watch. Most Americans will see that he owns it - I concede this includes a fair number of yokels who love every minute of it, but a much larger number don’t see racial unrest as a feature and can correctly note on a calendar who was in the White House when it occured.
Remember: A lot of those same racists voted for Obama and it won’t take many of them to peel back their support to Obama’s vice president - literally a tiny percentage would do it - to swing the election.
I’m also sure they’ll do this. But in the same way they’ll be spinning blame for whatever is happening away from Trump. They’ll be framing the protests as the end of the world, and Trump as the only way to stop it. And stupid people will be falling for it. It’s all of the same. How many? That’s hard to say.