Thank you.
This is a Biased Sample Fallacy - anecdotal and with confirmation bias.
However, Trump doesn’t have to lose 80% of his supporters to lose. Even even if Biden doesn’t pick up a single vote beyond the 66 million Hillary got and Trump gets 97% of his voters to come out for him again, that margin of just 3% don’t even have to vote for Biden, they just simply don’t vote or pick a third party candidate, and that alone will be enough to swing the results.
Before all this pandemic and rioting occurred I think Trump had a great chance of re-election simply because the economy was doing so well. No I’m not so sure. Also Biden is not proving himself to be a good candidate. I think he is going to pick a minority female for VP and that alone will bring him up.
Trump might pull and LBJ and allow someone else to run.
We have an existing thread on just that topic. No need to hijack this thread with this speculation.
https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-pull-an-lbj/913700
He’s smart enough to stay out of Trump’s way while he (Trump) shoots himself repeatedly in the foot, and racked up double-digit polling leads doing it. Sounds like a pretty good approach to me.
Out of the way is good. Invisible is not.
Figuring out where one shades to the other is not easy. Good luck Joe, we’re all* counting on you!
* net of about 70 million Trumpists.
He’s had multiple major content speeches recently - there was one yesterday on his environmental plan. It was covered by all the major news networks (even Fox broadcast it - probably so they could call it socialist later).
No, it’s not at all. It is totally correct, out of 10 Republicans I know well, 8 are now “Dump trumpers”. Does that mean that out of the general population, 80% of those who voted for trump are now dumpers? Not at all. My friends tend to be smarter than the average bear, arent racists or white supremacists, etc.
However, it is a good sign- and the Lincoln project and the many leading GOPers backing Biden also show the same trend- many thinking Republicans, those with brains and hearts are wanting to dump trump.
That’s a bullshit narrative. That you would mindlessly spout a bullshit narrative is not a shock, but you repeating the bullshit narrative doesn’t make it something other than a bullshit narrative.
Conservative columnist Jennifer Rubin points out today that he made a speech about climate change and also mentions his call with reporters before that on Monday.
Last week he visited his childhood home in battleground state of Pennsylvania. He did a one-on-one with the local TV station while there (when was Trump’s last one-on-one that wasn’t on Fox News?). This is just the past couple of weeks.
So please, please stop spreading bullshit narratives.
I didn’t say you were lying, I said you were statistically insignificant.
So, who the fuck cares? why even bring this up? Did I claim it was statistically significant? Dont you think most SDMBers could figure out that a sample size of ten isnt big enough? Geezcrickeys, it’s like you think this board is populated by MAGA hat wearing morons. I didnt post a “Biased Sample Fallacy” because all I posted was a personal anecdote. I didnt claim in any way shape or form that 80% of all Republicans would go that way.
So, go stuff your claim of “Biased Sample Fallacy”.
This is a site devoted to ignorance and anyone who thinks that “well, everyone I know says…” means anything is ignorant. You wanna take it to MPSIMS? Maybe they might care about your immediate group of acquaintances. Use all the anecdotal commentary you want. In a debate forum, it’s useless.
Your mommy may have said you were special, and I hate to break your bubble, but most all moms say that to their kids. You are statistically insignificant.
You were already banned from GD and PE before. Then you come out with this.
Warning issued. Here’s the deal. One more crack like this of any sort and you’ll be banned from both fora until January 1, 2021. If you can’t behave, you’ll not be allowed to play with the political kids.
I hope that’s clear.
I want to apologize for those two lines, it was pointed out they were maybe over the line, and here in P&E I should not have used that wording.
Not possible. I mean, Trump could (though is unlikely to, for all the reasons discussed in the other thread) decline to actually run for a new term. But LBJ announced that he would not run for reelection in March of 1968, allowing the nominating process to mostly run in earnest and for the party to coalesce behind another candidate.
Now, it’s July - four months later relative to the respective election days. There will be no other campaigns by Republicans. The party is unlikely to coalesce behind another candidate. Trump could decline to run, but that wouldn’t be ‘pulling an LBJ’. It’d be doing something else entirely.
Right, because Trump has done so much to keep them safe, and so much to reduce the racial social strife. He’s working really hard to reduce the violence, by arming the military and sending them into the streets. He’s so anti-racial identity politics that he defends the Confederate Flag and Confederate monuments while doing nothing about police killing unarmed black people. Yeah, he’s our savior.
No, the redhat wearing geezers are saying things like “White Power” and running cars over protestors and showing up on the capitol with guns and posting threats on facebook against the governors for trying to stop a pandemic. They’re mocking people for wearing facemasks to keep themselves and others safe.
I do agree the optics of street violence is a turnoff for many, and I go agree white Americans feel threatened. I do agree violence and destruction from anti-violence protestors is counter-productive. I do agree the actions of a subset of the group color the behavior of the rest in many people’s minds, and affects their perception of what is occurring. And distorted media portrayals like Fox News and right wing media feed that narrative.
None of that makes Trump look any better.
Here is an article worth reading.
Yeah, portraying the country as a dystopian hellscape might work when you are an outsider, but when your party has been in power for almost 4 years, what’s the message?