Who is saying that Obama will do better? The argument is that he could do significantly worse and still win.
Indiana and North Carolina are expected to swing. Add in Virginia. Add in Florida as the article does. That still leaves Romney five short. Can Romney get all five? That’s really the issue of this race. Can Romney win Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa, and either Pennsylvania or Nevada as well?
BTW, the last two shifts you name were races without incumbents, and in 1932 the loser was Hoover. I would argue that none of the three are relevant.