Actually, it was a shrewd trade, not a pick. Once I was out of contention, I traded Torry Holt to Wilson (4th and 19), who was still in it, and was RB-rich but WR-poor.
I’m humbled that my team is the concensus big dog, and I did get very lucky, in two ways. First, obviously, the McGahee keeper meant I didn’t have to take a Fred Taylor or Cedric Benson with my 2nd rounder, and could instead grab Holt, Walker, and Hasselbeck – this allowed me to take Witten when others were grabbing their WRs and QBs, which allowed me to build WR depth while others were grabbing TEs (and DEFs and Ks), and so on. It had a domino effect on my whole draft.
Second, I just got lucky in the traditional sense. Usually, my fantasy drafts are full of the players I want coming off the board one or two picks ahead of me. That didn’t happen at all this time, while most of my picks were followed by a cascade of 'damn!'s and 'crap!'s from the players after me. Good times.
Good work on the draft reviews, you guys; I always enjoy reading them. I probably won’t do any big write-ups on the draft now, but I do plan on doing a draft review around Week 8 or 9, like I did last year.
QB Four Green fields, and each one was a jew-el. Okay, there’s only one, but jewel he is. A little early? Maybe, but better than reaching for teh cream-of-wheat. Carr is a solid backup
RB Will that be PCP, PMO. or HMO? Let’s run don the list of questions:
[ul][li]Lewis: Health, potential for suspension-leadig behavior[/li][li]Staley: Health, loss of goal line opportunities[/li][li]Hicks: 3rd string RB on the goddam 49’s :eek: [/li][li]Morency: Little bitty rookie backup to a 3 down stud.[/ul][/li]Yikes. You should thank the lucky stars that Derier and the Wierdos have even worse RB corps than you. It is likely to spare you at least a little of the ridicule these mooks deserve. That and the fact that you got autodrafted to hell, of course.
WR What a Marvelous night for a wideout. Galloway was way too early (like, before waivers). Lloyd still has Rattay to rely on, until the rookie gets inserted. Yeah . . . that should help. :rolleyes: Bryant might develop a winning raport with Dilfer and turn into a viable fantasy starter. Or flying monkeys might shoot out of his ass. Could go either way. Boldin as a keeper is your prayer for salvation. Team him with Harrison and hope for the best. If only you had 3 RB’s so you didn’t need 3 strong WR performances every week.
TE Crumpler is a load, but I personally prefer blue-green algae.
K Akres too early for this pick, but he will score some points for you.
DEF Miami was a good value pick late, though their dominant days are behind them. I don’t think they have the linebacker depth to make the 3-4 successful this year.
Keeper potential Best just to pretend this draft never happened, really. Staley might stratch, if he stays healthy and the bus retires. Lloydmay be worth a flyer in Alex Smith, year 2.
Mundi Measure I fart in your autodraft’s direction
Actually, I didn’t go with my backup backup RBs (B. Jacobs and D. Blaylock) out of a belief that they’d steal goalline touches. I just figured that Tiki is 30 and Curtis is 32 (33?), and both have a lot of mileage on them, so if one of them faces a bad injury (which is likely), Ellis’ loss is my gain.
Sure – but you don’t have any reliable third back unless a New York boy goes down. If either James or McGahee suffers a setback (not beyond the realm of possibility) you are left starting a non-starter at RB each week. You face that for 2 bye weeks even if the Big 2 stay healthy. Hey, you might win that gamble. I’m just saying if I had those two at the top of my lineup card I would have spent some money on a better insurance policy. (Hell, I did that even though I drafted 2 young backs without significant injury history.)
You get points for a WR corps strong enough that you will only have to start 2 backs each week, but there is a reason that consistent RB scoring has become teh gold standard of fantasy football.
Yeah, that’s a good point. Any time the prospect of getting a third back came up, though, it seemed like I’d have to reach to do it, especially compared to the value I could get at another position.
Maybe could’ve taken Fred Taylor instead of Holt in the 2nd, but Holt is a guaranteed producer at WR, while Taylor is a big injury risk, and is declining (on a crumby offense) even if healthy. I’m also very high on Holt – I see no real difference in expected value between him, Moss, Harrison, and Owens. In fact, I think he’s the safest pick of the bunch.
Could’ve taken Cadillac Williams instead of Javon Walker in the 3rd, but Walker’s a good value there, and rookie RBs on bad offenses are always iffy. Walker’s a very good WR, and Green Bay has a good offense and no defense, so there should be lots of passing going on. Also had Walker last year, so sentiment played a (small) role.
After the 3rd, we’re already scraping the bottom of the barrel. Instead of Hasselbeck, I could’ve had . . . Reuben Droughns? Marshall Faulk? Also, we disagree on Hasselbeck. He has a very easy schedule this year, and he’d be expected to regress (progress?) to the mean after last year’s performance, regardless.
Please post your roster adjustments on the message list for the league. I don’t always get to this thread in a timely manner, but I check the league several times a day.
I saw that the Ricky Williams trade was posted; I hestitated since you went ahead and made the change yourselves. If you want it done now, meaning ( for future cases) as soon as possible, post there and I’ll get it done without fuss.
I’m glad everything seems to be moving along fairly well now, and I’ll try to keep it that way.
All the others seem to be fixed, but that’s a good question. If we use the replacement picks’ position, we will be over or undervaluing the pick; if not, we’ll have a possibility of two keepers having the same draft slot.
I don’t have a real good suggestion yet, I’d like to ask the rest of the owners to put in their two cents on this subject.
I think we should go by the replacement player’s slot, because Reggie Brown was a true 13th rounder, so his keeper value should be set to the 11th round. It seems needlessly harsh to penalize furt even more than he already was. (His brainfart cost him a 7th rounder this year; that’s more than enough justice, IMO.)
If there happens to be a conflict of two keepers then ending up in the same slot, the replacement pick should be bumped up a round, IMO.
So without looking at the actual roster he drafted, the keeper scenario would go like:
player 1
player 2
player 3
player 4
player 5
player 6
<no pick>
player 8
player 9
player 10
player 11
player 12
13r) Reggie Brown
player 13
player 14
player 15
So let’s say he wants to keep Reggie Brown and nobody else; simple, Reggie gets kept in the 11th. But let’s say he wants to keep Reggie and “player 13”. The latter would be kept at 11, and Reggie would be bumped to 10th round for keeper purposes. And finally, if he wanted to keep player 12, 13, and Reggie, Reggie would get bumped all the way to round 9.
This isn’t a money league; I think we’re all approaching this from the point of view of fun and fairness, so I think this is the most amicable solution. He already missed out on a 7th…hasn’t the man suffered enough already? heh.
Wait, this is a correct premise, right? He didn’t reserve Brown immediately after the Ricky pick, right? If the replacement players got reserved, then my argument has no merit.
I don’t remember any player reservations, though, so I’m pretty sure what I said in the previous post makes the most sense.
Yeah, call me crazy, but I think he’s got an outside shot at getting decent value for Dayne in the 11th next year. If Dayne gets a shot at starter, I think he’ll win the job easily. And he’s still fairly young, with not many reps, so he’s in a similar situation as Lamont Jordan as far as wear and tear goes.
I agree with Ellis’ analysis - IF Reggie Brown wasn’t put “on reserve” in the after furt’s mishap (and I’m assuming he wasn’t), then keeping Brown as an 11th or 10th rounder next year seems fine.
I think if furt ends up keeping picks 12, 13, and 13r (Brown), we should let him decide for himself between pick 12 and 13r on which he wants to bump an additional round from the 10th to the 9th. I see no real reason to make him bump Brown four whole rounds unless he wants to.
Every year I hear someone sing the praises of Thomas Jones. When he was in Arizona, then again in Tampa someone always says he’s on the verge of really breaking through. Still waiting, though. He’s always been overrated, defenses will stack the box, and his preseason means nothing to me. I don’t care how many feelings Benson hurt, he’s a #4 pick, signed a huge contract, so he’s going to find a way on the field.
Don’t get me wrong, TJ could have a nice little year. But I doubt it.
I also agree with Spiritus about Arrington… 2000 yards at Cal means nothing. He’s looked awful in preseason and if Denny has a lick of sense, Shipp will be toting the rock in Arizona. And D. Rhodes may be a good keeper pick, you are right. But his health remains an issue.
First off. The draft applet was all screwed up on my PC when I tried to log on. I spent about 30 minutes trying to get up and running and as a result my first two picks were autodrafted based on my prerankings. Things were lagged and I barely got that 3rd pick off. I was rushed, and though I wanted Arrington for sure (had him as a mini-sleeper for third back on my board), had I been more coherent and settled I’d have waitied another round or two on him. Still, I’m hoping Denny gets it done.
Now to dispell this Thomas Jones bunk.
He was the 17th overall fantasy RB in our league last year based on current settings. That’s ahead of guys like Deuce McAllister and Kevin Jones (all of whom played 14 or more games). Also ahead of Steven Jackson and Ronnie Brown, but I digress. Remember Benson had a whopping 69 catches in his entire college career. He will never see the field in 3rd down or goal line situations. Ron Turner’s offense will be more diverse than the one last year and will put up more points. Benson will steal some of his touches, but unless he becomes a super stud (does anyone really think he will?) Jones will be the major point winner. I understand that not being the undisputed primary ball carrier hurts him, but as a 4th rounder??? Whoomp!
Just to flog the equine a little more, here’s the top 25 guys, in order of FFL points for 2004.
Player Fan Pts
S. Alexander 300.6
T. Barber 295.6
L. Tomlinson 282.87
C. Martin 278.2
E. James 255.1
D. Davis 253.6
C. Dillon 245.8
R. Johnson 217.8
B. Westbrook 203.97
W. McGahee 203.7
R. Droughns 201.57
C. Portis 195.5
P. Holmes 193.9
A. Green 190.47
W. Dunn 190
J. Bettis 183.03
M. Pittman 179.7
T. Jones 177.5
D. McAllister 176.2
F. Taylor 170.9
K. Jones 165.3
N. Goings 161.5
J. Lewis 154.2
L. Johnson 151.9
C. Brown 149.4
Things could be alot worse for me at that position even if Arrington is a total unmitigated disaster.
Thats the great thing about fantasy football. Prior to, and immediately after, the draft people can disagree about players. Then the games are played. I was hideously wrong last year about more than a few players… .Javon Walker, Tiki Barber, and Ahman Green to name a few. And I’ll be wrong about more players this year. Thomas Jones might be one of those guys I’m wrong about. I doubt it, but it is entirely possible. I don’t think there’s any possibility that he will repeat last years numbers, when he was a guy you could plug in to get a few points. But you do. And it’s your team. You see a diamond in the rough, and I see a mediocre back who has been consistently overrated. We’ll see which guy shows up in Chicago this year. As long as he doesn’t shine in Week 10, I’ll be happy.
1. P. Manning 427.7
2. D. Culpepper 419.83
3. D. McNabb 327.17
4. B. Favre 287.87
5. T. Green 283.53
6. J. Plummer 282.5
7. J. Delhomme 280.63
8. D. Brees 273.6
9. A. Brooks 260.4
10. T. Brady 255.87
11. M. Bulger 251.03
12. M. Hasselbeck 231.73
13. M. Vick 231.3
14. D. Carr 211.6
15. J. Harrington 205.07
16. B. Leftwich 200.13
17. K. Collins 200.1
18. B. Roethlisberger 183.77
**19. C. Pennington 181.7**
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**36. E. Manning 54.27**