[QUOTE=Least Original User Name Ever]
Nice knowing you, Houston Rockets. You had a solid season, but you’re screwed now. You even traded away Bonzi Wells, your next best post player. You better turn into a copy of the Suns or else you’re toast.
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They still have a pretty decent shot to make the playoffs though. They are in a really bunched up group of good teams, but even without Yao, they may have just enough of a buffer to survive. They are sitting at 37-20. Denver is the 9th seed at 33-23. Based on projections, it seems pretty likely it will take 47 or 48 wins to make the playoffs as the 8th seed (we’ll say 48.). Obviously, that assumes none of the teams with similar records completely fall apart.
To reach 48 wins, Houston needs to finish the season by winning 11 of 25 remaining games (44%). Last year, Houston won 20 of 32 (62.5%) without Yao. Granted, the West is probably a bit stronger this year, but they have a decent, albeit completely different, team without him.
In their remaining schedule, Houston has 13 home/12 road games. Denver has 12 home/14 road which gives Houston a slight edge. Remaining opponents for Houston have won 50.8% of their games while Denver has to play a 51.3% slate. Again, super close, but slightly better for the Rockets.
The big question comes down to the replacement of Yao’s value. Can the combo of Mutombo, Landry, and Scola do enough to cover some of Yao while other players pick up bits and pieces of his rebounding, scoring, and passing? Can the coaching staff make enough adjustments to the style of play to maximize their new strengths? Can they convince a Brent Barry, Antonio Davis, Sam Cassell type to choose to join them over another team?
If I had to choose, I’d still pick them as the 8th seed over Denver and 1st round cannon fodder. But, they won’t really lose much by missing the lottery. Move down a few spots in a weak draft, no big deal.