In Brazil it’s “feliz Natal”. Portuguese, don’tchaknow.
Please reread what I wrote. Yellowstone is at a middle latitude basically centered in the northern Ferrel cell. The Toba caldera is very near the equator and basically in between northern and southern Hadley cells, so yes, it would distribute solid ash material into the lower latitudes of each equator, with material found as far east as Malawi. (The atmosphere flows east in the Hadley cell and west in the Farrel cell because of differences in Coriolis acceleration and momentum transfer between lower and higher latitudes, the same effect that produces the Trade Winds and Westerlies.) Solid ejecta from Toba largely stayed within the near equatorial tropic region. The emitted gas, of course, rises into the stratosphere and has basically a global cooling effect, but while this will reduce ambient sunlight it would not render agriculture “mostly impossible around the world”; it will just reduce growing seasons and light intensity. Violent eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera in the fashion experienced ~640 kyr ago would devastate the North American continent to the east but would not have immediate or catastrophic effects on the Southern Hemisphere, or even deposit a significant amount of solid material on the Eurasian landmass.
Stranger
check out this map
Denver metro area population; 2,814,330 most likely toast
Salt Lake metro area population; 1,153,340 almost definitely toast.
Boise metro area, the smallest population of the three; 676,909, a campfire marshmallow.
When anybody is finally able to get into that area again, if anybody is able to, it won’t be in a timely manner. The area affected is so huge, the effects so devastating and truly global in scale, that the dark purple ring and all inside it would probably be written off as a totally devastated loss.
Too late for the edit window for splainin to the guestling about Yellowstone caldera, but, SIGH, I knew that:smack:
I think that Guestchaz Is underestimating the devastation.
As far as casualties, Unless the NYT is so shell shocked as to make a major mistake, the headlines wold NOT read thousands missing. The number would require many more zeros. There would be thousands just from the tourists in the area. Not only from Yellowstone, but The Grand Tetons, All of the National parks & Wilderness areas will be destroyed along with the guests. A conservative estimate is at least tens of thousands dead in the desolate parts of Wyoming alone.
If it happens, I will not be posting on any internet site again. I live & work way to close to Yellowstone to even have a prayer of surviving. I did look into this once. All of the geologists I know have told me that I will not even know that it happened. It will be that quick & that big.
Just FYI, I was in the area when Mt St Helens blew. It was tiny compared to what Yellowstone will be.
If I knew it was going to blow on a certain date? I would move my loved ones to Australia, or New Zealand. Brazil is too close for comfort as far as I am concerned.
Profit? Being alive.
I was trying to be a little bit realistically lazy. The number of large towns/small cities in the area of total destruction probably add up to several hundred thousand, I just didn’t bother to look it all up to do the math(there’s a LOT of them).
There’s a lot more people in this “empty quarter” than people think. Living close (enough) as I do, the geology of Yellowstone and the Snake River canyon and area have always been a small interest of mine.
It would be ironic, at the very least, if the only part that survives a mega volcanic eruption in Tierra del Fuego. 
While the ultimate death toll would obviously be much higher, the hypothetical headline is likely referring to the people in the immediate vicinity who received the Pompeii treatment. Pompeii is about 15.5 miles from Mt Vesuvius and is estimated to to have been covered by up to 17’ of ash. That was also not all at once but is thought to have been at a rate of about 6"/hr.
Well, looking at it that way, Salt Lake, in the map I linked to, is right at the border between instant kill zone and the primary ash zone, so yeah, might be some survivors from that area, but not very many.
Also, something that seems to be missing in this discussion, what about damage from the seismic effects of such an eruption?
Seismic events will certainly be relevant to the people there and the region at large. But to be a concern here, we need some ideas about how to make bank on them.
Tell everyone you can and convince them. This is an event that will shatter not only the US but probably the world economy. Simply put, while it might not be an extinction level event it’s probably going to be a civilization shattering one. There is no way to profit from this by holding the knowledge close and trying to profiteer or something like that.
If you can’t convince anyone I suggest moving from the US and investing in food, water, shelter and power that can last years or a decade or so and hoping some sort of civilization hangs on despite the US suddenly being destroyed, the temperatures dropping world wide and sunlight being scarce, with billions starving.
the only thing I got earthquake insurance. Not sure how well that’ll work out though. Maybe selling plans and absconding to Bolivia with all the money?
Build a group of underground homes on the rim of the survival zone. Invest in Wind energy production, and start a large mushroom farm.
If you can identify edible fish that can live on a largely mushroom diet, then get a few tanks underground along with very deep wells. Have a few miniature milk goats.
Invest in freeze dried foods and vacuum-packed grains; get at least five years’ worth of rations for yourself, your family, and the critters.
Hide a tractor and other farming equipment in your underground bunker and just keep them well-oiled and maintained for future use.
Investigate plants that grow well in volcanic soils and be ready with seeds to start claiming land and planting the moment the sun peeks out again.
The long-term goal is to claim and make use of as much farming land as possible, as soon as possible. Done right, this will make you the richest family in the world until the first lazy generation.
Buy up all the land around the very rim of destruction. After the eruption, sell fill dirt back to the area now in a large hole.
Wait, I always thought that when Yellowstone erupted it was going to be an extinction-level event that could create a long-lasting nuclear winter effect and kill soooooo many people. But based on the maps given upthread it seems like the middle of country is right screwed, but the east coast is relatively unscathed.
I know it’s a big deal, but is it not as big a deal as I thought?
This would work !!!
<nitpick> Boise is upwind of Yellowstone (c.f. Stranger’s post) </nitpick>
I don’t think Yellowstone is that type of volcano … it’s not situated on the edge of a subduction zone like Toba or Mazama … it’s a “hot spot” like the Hawai’ian Islands … if Yellowstone starts an eruptive phase in 5 years, this will be signaled by the magma chamber filling up and cinder cones forming on the existing caldera plain … I’m not saying it absolutely won’t blow up, just that the probabilities are fairly remote … it will take many many years to build up an overburden to create these kinds of pressures …
Besides, if Yellowstone blew up, the earthquake would kill everybody first, long before the ash fall did …
This was indeed the conventional wisdom for many years. The buildup to critical mass for Yellowstone to blow would take centuries. There’s new research based on prior eruption cycles that indicates it may have a much faster cycle from dormant to eruption. We’re still talking decades, but not centuries like previously believed. In any case, the “no one saw it coming!” for Yellowstone is a very unlikely scenario. We’ll probably have at least 5 years of solid evidence and global consensus(which will lag scientific consensus) that an eruption is imminent, even if we miss the earlier warning signs. Mother Earth is a powerful force, but she doesn’t move enough magma to produce overpressure that leads to 1000 cubic kilometers of ejecta(using a middle figure for Yellowstone ejecta volume) into place overnight.
Which kind of rains on the parade of the OP, but I’m glad the earth’s mantle isn’t that chaotic.
Enjoy,
Steven
It’s blown up several times, the last time less than a million years ago (something like 600-700k years, IIRC), so not sure why you’d think it was extinction level…it didn’t cause an extinction level event before, unless it was to some species that only lived in or around the caldera.
It would certainly screw the country and probably the world economy, and your nuclear winter effect statement is pretty close to what would happen.
I thought I read it’d be heralded by years of seismic activity. It wouldn’t be calm one moment and suddenly about to erupt the next.
And considering the banner graphic and what it says, I’m not sure about the reliability of that site…