When I clicked on this site, I found the following note
“Created On: 10/19/2020 11:23 AM (ET)
Note to traders: As of this time, the contracts for Joe Biden and Donald Trump have reached the limit for the allowable number of traders.”
so it seems like I can’t make a bet on the 2020 Presidential election there (if I’m interpreting this correctly, all I can do is watch what people who already have contracts are doing with them - if I’m incorrect in my interpretation, please let me know).
There are still people willing to put up money against a bet for Biden winning? If I put up $2200 and Biden wins, I collect $2300?
Is there some catch here? Like I can’t collect if Trump challenges the outcome or if Biden dies before he’s inaugurated. Or I have to worry that I won’t receive my money when I win.
They are still accurate. They are giving intinity to 10 odds that Biden will win. What’s inaccurate about that?
Um… yeah… that website has come up a time or two in this thread if you read carefully.
For completeness…
As has been mentioned repeatedly in this thread, I can’t just go place a bet on Trump at PredictIt. The market is capped.
This is what happens when I try…
Yeah I’m with you - I thought that was a whoosh but maybe not.
Glad to see a thread like this finally catch legs. I’m one of the “talk me off the ledge” people from the ongoing Election thread.
And I’ve brought it up a few times, my concern that in that corner of the internet, there’s still people who believe there’s at least a “13 - 15% chance” that Trump is still President at 5pm on January 20th.
That thought scares me to death.
Catch 1: I think you’re an American, right? I think Betfair is illegal to access from most (all?) of the US
Otherwise you only lose if Trump is determined to have won the election on Nov 3 by the standard procedure of counting EVs, it doesn’t matter who actually gets inaugurated and any “faithless electors” will be ignored.
I’d just like to point out that I am NOT putting money on Biden becoming President.
If I did, he’d suddenly take a job washing jitneys in Jakarta. And I’d feel like it was my fault.
Hmmm, maybe I should bet on Loeffler and Perdue in Georgia… then they’d both drop out of politics (“to spend more time with their pets”).
That’s some catch, that Catch-1.
It’s the best there is.
Thanks for this tip. I got in for 1000 shares at $0.85 on 11/29. A little bit over two weeks later that market has settled and I have $985 after fees. Not a bad rate of return.
Dumb markets will pay you to make them smarter (usually).
Sorry, if I’m misunderstanding. So, Predictit is offering 7% odds that Trump is going to win, but you can’t actually bet on either Trump or Biden?
I said before that Trump was not worth a Pence. I was wrong, he is now worth 13. 
Here are the current markets open for the 2020 Presidential Election:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/13/President
PredictIt is an exchange - they’re not setting the odds, they’re creating a market for people to wager against each other. In many of the markets, there are no available shares to purchase - so you can’t actually place a wager.
This is important and seems to be frequently overlooked.
Now I’m more confused. They’re creating a market to wager, but there are no shares available. So, these “odds” are meaningless because nobody can bet on them?
Wouldn’t this be like saying that I’m selling a mansion for a dollar, but having no inventory available to sell?
(Not trying to argue! I genuinely don’t understand!)
No its basically like they have posted some notes from people saying “I am willing to buy a mansion for $1.00 if anyone is willing to sell it.”, and right now no one is willing to accept that offer.
So, there is no actual market for a 1 dollar mansion. Is there any actual market for Trump to win the election if nobody is able to trade on this?
The people within the market are able to sell their shares - and they do so every now and then. You just have to be online when they do so you can get in. From what I’ve heard, it’s been sporadic lately. Prior to the election, it was a very active market - lots of buying and selling, and people could get in more easily.
Do you actually have to be online? or can you put in proxy bids (I will take any offer on a Biden win that is pays more than 1 cent on a dollar) that are fulfilled on a first come first serve basis and counter offers appear?