Thanks for keeping it up!
I’ve been ruminating on how different things would be if the spoiler Sanders wasn’t in the game. Applying Morning Consult second choice numbers to yours:
Biden 26+(.27 × 19)= 31.1
Warren 16.8+(.33×19)= 23.1
Yang 3.6+(.09×19)= 5.3
So Yang coulda got another debate maybe! Otherwise, maybe not that big a difference.
538 has a good article about the polls in the early primary states.
If I understood/recall it correctly, it seems like Warren and Sanders are cannibalizing each other in Iowa because of the new rules involving selecting a number two candidate. I confess that I am not quite sure I fully understand IA’s caucus rules, but the gist of it is that if a number 1 doesn’t get to 15% and they all somehow split the vote then the number two matters and could reshape the outcome. Not surprisingly, Warren and Sanders voters list the other as their number two. This would seem to give Biden and Buttigieg a clearer path to victory in Iowa, but that’s only if we have a split electorate.
What seems more likely is that at least three of the top four - and maybe all four - might get over 15% in which case all could effectively proclaim themselves winner even if they don’t come in first place. Delegates are effectively split proportionally. The nightmare scenario for anyone not named Biden is that Biden does better than expected and the other three do worse, and if I understand IA’s rules correctly, I think that would give Biden a winner-take-all victory. That would be some serious momentum going into the rest of the February states.
The wildcard is impeachment. The trial will take Warren, Sanders, and Klobuchar off the campaign trail. They won’t be able to have as much camera time. This would be an advantage for Biden, but his name will almost certainly be brought up and not in a good way. The lone beneficiary of an impeachment trial is Buttigieg.
As I noted above, Morning Consult numbers have Biden getting a fair share of second choice numbers on both of those candidates supporters. So that is actually a little surprising. Is there a cite for that or was it your gut?
Admittedly, conceding that it’s not quite how I characterized it initially.
Predictions from the Betfair market have shifted dramatically since my report ten days ago. The first number is chance to be D nominee; 2nd number chance to be November winner:
Elizabeth Warren all the way, for me. Of course, I’ll vote for whomever the Dem nominee is next November (‘course, I’d vote for a dead crab before I’d ever vote for Lid’l’ Donny Drumpf for anything - other than in a “Most Odious Person on the Planet” contest) but Elizabeth Warren is my favorite, by far. I’m concerned, though, that the Dems are gonna make the same mistake they made last time in picking a nominee so as much as I’d like to see Angry Lid’l’ Donny voted out of office (and as much as deserves to be), I’m no longer very hopeful that that is going to happen.
Haven’t actually done this in a while, but here’s what I’ve got (no major surprises really):
Takeaways:
#1: The first one is that Biden needs to place at least in 2nd place in Iowa. Biden could place 2nd in both IA and NH and still turn out okay because he will likely hold on to win in South Carolina. But if he places 3rd in Iowa, that would introduce fresh doubts, it would energize Sanders, and it would likely result in another, even more lopsided loss in New Hampshire. Biden would be taking that baggage into South Carolina, which is his bulwark at this point. But I think Biden needs an impressive victory somewhere early on and South Carolina’s his best bet to do that. And if he can’t, he will really struggle to keep up with the enthusiasm of the Sanders campaign.
#2: A related takeaway is that Sanders is for real. Moreover, I think he’s even stronger than he was at this time in 2016, and I am not convinced that Biden is even as strong a candidate as Hillary was. He’s not dealing with “ZOMG! EMAILS!” But he’s dealing with a pretty messy manufactured campaign of his own with his son’s work in Ukraine.
#3: As interesting as he has been, we’re probably nearing the end of Pete Buttigieg’s campaign. His numbers are strong among predominately educated white progressives; they start going south once you get into places like South Carolina and Nevada. Buttigieg doesn’t just have a Black voter problem but also a Latino voter problem as well, and there’s no evidence that he’s going to win them over in this election cycle. The question is, who do Buttigieg voters support as his campaign begins to fade out of sight? I tend to think they could scatter in different directions. Buttigieg attracts more pragmatic moderates in terms of policy but he’s also attracting people who want fresh faces and people who want new blood in the system. If Warren were polling stronger, I tend to think she’d actually win a fair chunk of his voters but that’s just my gut - I don’t know who his voters prefer as a second choice.
#4: Keep your eyes on Bloomberg. Along with Sanders, he’s the one candidate who can legitimately claim to be surging. He’s onto something with his ad campaigns, and he’s rapidly building a strong organization in key states. He’s clearly setting his sights on Super Tuesday, and it’s not clear how that will impact the race.
Yeppers. Only way I’d differ is that I’d just cut it off after Warren, and even Warren’s hanging on by her fingernails at this point, as I said in the "Is it Biden versus Bernie?" thread.
I don’t know about that. The candidates are bunched pretty close together in Iowa, and 3rd or 4th isn’t going to be that much different from 2nd in all likelihood.
Particularly if Bernie wins Iowa (the most likely outcome if Biden doesn’t), it really sets up a Biden v. Bernie race, and people who don’t want Bernie aren’t going to have anywhere else to go.
Concur entirely here. Bernie’s for real, and Biden is a way weaker candidate than Hillary.
His support has been in the 26-28% range since Labor Day, which isn’t exactly the mark of a dominating candidate. He’s been a weak front runner all along; it’s just that nobody else has been strong enough to supplant him.
If Warren doesn’t win Iowa, then I’d expect a lot of Warren supporters in subsequent states to shift to Bernie. And then the anti-Biden vote will coalesce around Bernie, and the anti-Bernie vote will coalesce around Biden. I don’t know if Bernie will win that sort of race, but I think he can win it.
Thank goodness. He has no business running for President. He’s so green, he can’t make up his mind what sort of candidate he wants to pretend to be.
I think Super Tuesday is really too late to start winning. Maybe Bloomberg will prove me wrong, but once the race has some real definition to it, voters are more apt to think a vote for someone who’s not on the leader board is a wasted vote. And there’s essentially zero time in between SC (2/29) and Super Tuesday (3/3). If you’re a Presidential candidate, life comes at you fast once we get this close to Iowa.
Keep in mind Iowa is not winner-take-all. What happens if Bernie eeks out a win in Iowa, but Warren and Biden get almost as many delegates?
I’m afraid the latest numbers from the Betfair prediction market will not brighten up your day. The first number is the chance to win the November election; 2nd number is chance to be the Democratic nominee.
58.6% Trump -
16.8% Sanders 39.8%
10.3% Bloomberg 18.3%
5.9% Biden 15.4%
3.3% Buttigieg 8.9%
1.7% Warren 5.7%
0.7% Clinton 2.3%
0.7% Yang 0.8%
0.3% Obama 0.5%
0.3% Klobuchar 0.3%
0.3% Pence -
0.2% Haley - Since the ratio of Sanders’ numbers (16.8 and 39.8) is just 42.2%, and Biden’s ratio only 38.1%, while Bloomberg’s (10.3/18.3) is 56.2%, the numbers might be interpreted to mean that Bloomberg is predicted to have a better chance than Sanders or Biden, and especially Warren, to beat Trump if he’s the nominee.
Betfair numbers are moving fast. (It was even hard to take a snapshot: Bets were changing as I wrote them down.)
59.3% Trump
14.5% Sanders 32.5%
13.9% Bloomberg 26.2%
4.6% Buttigieg 13.3%
3.2% Biden 8.5%
1.8% Klobuchar 4.5%
0.6% Clinton 2.9%
0.5% Warren 1.4%
0.5% Pence -
0.4% Obama 0.4%
0.3% Haley -
Bloomberg, Klobuchar and Buttigieg are rising. Biden and Warren both sinking fast.
It’s interesting to look at PredictIt and compare it to Betfair. There are some significant-seeming differences.
Betfair has about $27 million matched on its President bets. How much betting at Predictit? (Betting markets tend to be more reliable the more money is wagered.)
I can’t access Predictit.Org. (Any experts think they might explain this if I show ‘tracert’?) Predictwise.com used to quote odds from both Betfair and Predictit; and quoted its own odds (which were almost identical to Betfair’s.) However Predictwise hasn’t updated the relevant page since Jan. 25. (David R. writes me about “cache issues.”)
Latest numbers from Betfair prediction market. First number is chance to become the winner in November (Trump is the youngest among the top Four); 2nd number is chance to be the D nominee.
59.3% Trump -
24.0% Sanders 51.7%
.9.3% Bloomberg 19.0%
.2.9% Biden 6.5%
.2.2% Buttigieg 8.5%
.0.9% Clinton 2.4%
.0.4% Pence -
.0.4% Warren 0.7%
.0.2% Obama 0.4%
.0.2% Haley -
.0.1% Klobuchar 0.2%
It may be futile to read too much into these numbers, but bettors expect that if Buttigieg is the nominee, his November chance is low. A divided convention settling on Hillary is the best chance to see a female in the White House! :eek:
I’m calling it. Bernie Sanders will be the nominee unless he has another heart attack. His V.P. running mate might be Castro, Booker or a woman (Klobuchar?).
If he gets 43+% of pledged delegates on the 1st ballot, it’s his. Otherwise, the question is: Will there be a Stop Bernie Movement?
First note that All Candidates are severely flawed:
[ul][li] Sanders: Left of party; moderates will be horrified; much opportunity for adverse propaganda.[/li][li] Bloomberg: Right of party; leftists will be horrified; much opportunity for adverse propaganda.[/li][li] Biden: UNACCEPTABLE. Review his “liar … fat” tirade against a possible supporter. He was never the brightest bulb, and is a shadow of his former self.[/li][li] Buttigieg: UNELECTABLE. Maybe U.S.A. will be ready to elect a gay in 2028. Not today.[/li][li] Klobuchar: Without sudden turn for the better at the ballot-box, will be seen as a Loser.[/li][li] Warren: Without sudden turn for the better at the ballot-box, will be seen as a Loser.[/li][li] Clinton: WON’T HAPPEN. I was rooting for the DNC to draft Biden to save us from Hillary in 2016. The converse might almost make sense this turn, but the suggestion would be laughed at.[/li][/ul]
Is there any chance that Biden and Buttigieg would throw their support to Bloomberg? Could we have some 45% to 45% endgame, Sanders vs Bloomberg? If so, Bernie would have to get the nod: The grass roots would be too angered and horrified if not.
Is there a chance that D delgates will get confused and pick one of the unelectables? Probably, but [fingers crossed] we must hope that cooler heads prevail.
GO BERNIE! WIN! WIN! WIN!!***
Betfair numbers still moving fast. An active trader could be having a lot of fun!
57.4% Trump -
23.0% Sanders 51.1%
11.3% Biden 26.2%
4.8% Bloomberg 11.2%
0.7% Clinton 1.8%
0.5% Buttigieg 1.7%
0.4% Warren 0.9%
0.4% Pence -
0.2% Obama 0.4%
They’ve just started a market for Dem VP nominee. Too early to quote odds, but six front-runners are all women, including Nina Turner.
Betfair numbers have changed dramatically, of course. With polls about to open across the land, Biden is back on top.57.3% - Trump
21.6% 48.8% Biden
14.9% 39.1% Sanders
2.9% 5.6% Bloomberg
0.7% 2.2% Clinton
0.6% 1.3% Warren
0.4% - Pence
0.2% 0.6% Obama
Betfair numbers, just a day later. $39 million total has been wagered at the two Betfair markets whose latest prices are depicted here.56.6% - Trump
33.0% 75.5% Biden
7.0% 17.4% Sanders
0.7% 2.6% Clinton
0.5% 1.1% Bloomberg
0.4% - Pence
0.3% 0.5% Warren
0.2% 0.6% Obama
0.2% - Haley
Biden opens up a 16% lead nationally.
Ten days later, the numbers have moved. According to the Betfair bettors, the D’s are now a (very slight) favorite to win the November election.
46.5% - Trump
44.4% 88.1% Biden
2.7% 3.1% Sanders
1.9% - Pence
1.6% 6.1% Clinton
0.5% - Haley
0.5% 1.3% Obama
0.2% - Harris
0.2% 0.2% Warren
(The market for Dem V.P. nominee is too small to heed, but the front-runners are Harris, Klobuchar, Abrams.)