Assuming we can extricate ourselves at some point in the next few years from this mess, what real world military and political lessons do we (or should we) take away from this debacle?
OK. I know I’m painting with a wide brush and am just asking for it, but these are the conclusions that I’ve been trending towards the more I glean from books, this message board and from the media.
That the middle east is a fractious collection of synthetic nation states who want 20th century power and 12th-century governments.
That while the people of the area may want peace, stability, hope and progress, their leaders do not.
That peoples’ allegiance are: first to their family, then their clan/tribe, then their religion, then their culture and lastly their “country.” This is not necessarily a bad thing, btw, but should be borne in mind instead of expecting that we can import our culture, ethics, or political values and expect immediate acceptance.
That the only thing they hate more than each other is the “West,” particularly the US.
That we should get the fuck out of the area, leaving a sign that says “Give us a call when you get your shit together.” (ok…this is a little harsh… how about “give us a call if we can help you get your shit together?”)
Bizz assumes the position
Rule #1: The whole point of a republic is that in theory it’s supposed to mind it’s own business, stay at home and live in peace. In a democracy, the public will overwhelmingly support war in response to an attack: examples WW2, 9/11-Afghanistan. They will NOT support optional wars to bolster geostrategic position: examples Korea, Vietnam, Iraq. And no matter how the government tries to put spin on it, the public CAN tell the difference.
Rule #2: It is virtually impossible to conduct a war in a country and not make war on that country’s inhabitants. The welcome of outside liberators/occupiers will have the same shelf life as fresh fish.
Rule #3: Cakewalks are great when you get them; never count on getting them. No one ever started a war expecting to lose. And never try to wage war on the cheap. If you can’t put your money where your mouth is, go home.
Rule #4: Ethics and ruthlessness don’t mix. Pick one or the other and stick to it.
The same ones described in the Powell Doctrine, which will have to be reworded and renamed since it is now discredited by Powell’s own failure to make sure they were followed. Basically, be sure you’re right, that you can win, that you know what winning *is * in context, then use overwhelming force and minimum casualties. One addendum: If you want to make them your friends, don’t torture them.
Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes (“Beware Greeks bearing gifts”) does not only apply to one’s enemies. When a “friend” dumps a windfall of information in your lap—especially when it bolsters a position you’re already known to favor—examine the motivations very carefully.
When said “friend” has a vested interest in the position, be ten times more cautious. Or run like hell.
Let me take that as a jumping off point. To underline John McCain’s comment recently, the mark of true civilization is how you treat your enemies, regardless of whether or not you hope to make them friends.
A historic case in point: during the Russo-Japanese war, the Japanese astounded the world with thier civility towards captured and wounded Russian soldiers. Individual Japanese soldiers would “adopt” a wounded Russian soldier to nurse back to health. Russian soldiers wrote home in astonishment, and the story got out. A Western civilization prone to think of Orientals as subhuman and brutal gaped in awe, the Japanese as a nation reaped untold rewards in terms of international political capital and prestige. Of course, kicking the Russian’s butt had no small part in it.
The loathesome nature of our enemy is irrelevent. You should not kill a dog, unless the dog is rabid. Then, of course, you must. To prevent the rabies from spreading. But if you become a rabid dog yourself, what is gained?
I hope not to sound naive, there is more than sufficient evidence to prove that war is the most brutalizing human experience, sane men loathe war. But if the Americans cannot conduct war in a decent and humane discipline, who can? If the world is nothing but a howling wasteland of feral nations, we are doomed, raising children and grandchildren is an entirely pointless endeavor, you might just as well take up heroin.
Excellent comments above. I’m not sure I can add more, except to say that, particular to this reason, our dependance on oil makes us vulnerable to the vagaries of Middle East politics, which is plagued by the lethal mix of despotism and fanaticism. There are many compelling reasons to develop alternate energy sources, but avoiding the need to spend tens of billions of dollars and thousands of American lives to secure cheap oil is reason enough. The less we have to do with the Middle East politically, beyond defending ourselves from its more virulent aspects, the better.
Lesson #1: When everyone else says something is a bad idea maybe you need to listen instead of throwing a sulk.
Lesson #2: Having the biggest army is not a solution.
We didn’t do enough to supress the anti-war crowd. Next time congress passes a a war powers resolution, we need to include authority to jail dissenters.
Take some of the billions spent on defence and spend them on finding a cheap, sustainable source of energy that doesn’t make you dependent on the vagaries of uneducated bumkins half way around the world. You have enough bumkins to deal with at home. Why go searching for more elsewhere?
Interesting stuff about the Russo-Japanese war.
What was said above about democracies minding their own business (this should be taken literally and figuratively, as in we should have good trading relations with everyone, and stay out of their politics), to which a small reminder that we did once have a policy of doing precisely this:
from Grover Cleveland’s speech rejecting the annexation of Hawaii
And while we’re at it, stop demonizing those who do in fact follow the above policy for “trading with tyrants”, or something. Between the Patriot Act, the torture scandal, and the militarism of our culture, we’re allowing ourselves to be led down the road to tyranny right here. You are always in danger of becoming that which you allow yourself to hate.
And oh yeah, restrict the warmaking powers of the President to what he’s allowed in the Constitution. The simplest and most practical way of doing this is to mostly disband the army, leaving only a small force for rapid reaction to threats to our territory. A large standing army at the disposal of the Executive has always been and will always be the enemy of liberty.
Yes, elucidator, thanks for the Russo-Japanese POW info. I hadn’t been aware of it.
pantom, it’s interesting to note that Cleveland’s policy toward Hawaii led toward making it not just a friend but a state, while McKinley’s near-contemporaneous policy of colonizing the Philippines “to Christianize and uplift them” led to decades of insurgency and forcible oppression, followed by independence. Friendship starts with respect, as Cleveland noted.
That the concept of pre-emptiveness, which essentially lead to WWI, is as ineffective and dangerous today as it was a century ago.
That post-war preparations is as important as pre-war preparations, and that in order to win the hearts and minds one needs to treat the citizens respectfully. Imposing “our way of life” on someone never works because people will never accept a foreigner to come and tell them what to do, even if it’s the “right thing”.
That the people of the Middle East are in fact ready for change, but that the West has missed its opportunity by failing to reach out to the middle class - those between the leaders and “the streets”. Put neutral citizens in control of local communities right away.
Required reading: “Turning points” by Robin Wright:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A28339-2004May14?language=printer
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That we need to spend considerable amounts of money on alternate fuel research so we can wash our hands of these people and let them fight over a now-useless resource under barren land.
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That we need to call everyone back within our borders and close them for a period of about 5 years so we can get ourselves together at home, reconstructing our industries and manufacturing capabilities so we can survive on our own and not be dependent upon people who loathe us for our national survival.
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That if we must go somewhere to fight, we should not be the initiators but the followers so as to break the world of the idea that we are responsible for everything bad that happens and that we should fix the world’s problems. Let someone else take the lead and the abuse that comes with it, maybe they’ll get an understanding of what we have to deal with.
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That we should cut off all international aid. Let the people we supply with incredible amounts of capital and food/energy aid simmer until they realize that we don’t do business with people that hate us.
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Let these damn fools duke it out amongst themselves, because they’re going to do so anyway.
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Mind our own damn business, which is what the rest of the world wants us to do anyway, and let everyone fend for themselves come what may.
I am for total isolationism. Total. If they don’t want us, then let’s oblige them.
I’ll go out on a limb and guess that you don’t donate to Amnesty International? Don’t you think that regarding America as an isle of Eden in a wasteland of backwater third world countries is a little… I dunno… I don’t think there is a word for it yet… how about “heartlessly shortsighted”?
You’ll still be dependent upon people who loathe you to drive you to the airport.
choke/sputter/cough/indignant dropping of jaw
Yes, let’s turn our backs on the world and build large towers for them to fly airplanes into. If you close your eyes, they don’t exist! Shhhh!
Are you really the type of person who would sit on his porch sipping a beer while watching his neighbor catch on fire while getting his nuts chewed off by a dog, just because he doesn’t like your truck with the noisy muffler?
You think that America’s dominance of the world market, technology, and military will last forever? And you think anyone will forget that it was America that let them rot?
Almost as heartless as terrorism that is afflicting our citizens worldwide?
Amusing. Very stereotypical, but nonetheless amusing.
Have some water to clear your throat. Tell me what you really want to say, but make sure that it doesn’t include the words “We owe” anywhere in it.
Or we could finance their incredibly oppressive societies with oil purchases and have them do it anyway. If I’m gonna get screwed I’m not gonna finance the screwdriver.
It’s not that he doesn’t like my truck with the noisy muffler, it’s that every time I drive by he takes a shot at it.
No, I don’t think that our dominance will last forever. What’s your point?
As if all of the sudden we might actually be attacked because we did what they wanted us to do by leaving them the hell alone? Oh, wait, they attacked us anyway, even though we’re the people that make sure they don’t rot through our extraordinary spending on the oil that they provide.
Fuck 'em. We’re damned if we do and damned if we don’t. That said, I’d rather we didn’t, just to spite them. Maybe they’ll learn something from it.
Well, this is not the place to debate this, but I guess you are the nega-me.
Don’t vote for any Presidential candidates named Bush. 
Oh, I don’t know. George the First looks pretty damn good to me now in hindsight, and frankly I think he had a handle on international relations. I voted for him once, supported him thru the Gulf War, and cheered when he declined to roll into Baghdad, thus delaying our current scenario by about 14 years.
As for the “I’m taking my ball and going home” method of diplomacy, that never worked too well in decades past. For better or for worse, we live in this world, and make such a major impact on it that we can’t ignore what goes on in it.
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Don’t get involved in a land war in Asia.
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All wars will be televised, both the good parts and the bad. Supporting the media, no matter what stripe – from Fox News to Al Jazerra – has to be part of the plans for a strategic victory. Bad news will come out, and there is no point in blaming the messanger.
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If someone is not with you on the takeoff, don’t expect them to be there for a rough landing. This applies equally to the UN, our disgruntled NATO allies, foreign military forces from Muslim nations, and the American people.
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Technology has limits. Sooner or later, the enemy will find out what those limits are.
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Great leaders are expected to persevere through criticism and doubts. But even medicore leaders should grasp that doubts and criticism exist, and understand their basis, rather than ignoring them. Before pushing through the crap, one must understand what crap is being heaped upon you.