NFL Draft - April 23rd & 24th

[Omniscient]

Well, 9 days until the official start of NFL obsessing season again.

I'm pretty geeked about this draft and I want to hear some thoughts. I know damn well I'll be holed up on the couch with some unhealthy food watching it unfold.

My initial thoughts:

1) Braylon Edwards vs. Mike Williams

I've got to tell you this one's been getting a lot of play around here. The Bears need a WR desperately, and all the experts are saying Edwards is going to be there at #4. I'm not so sure. I don't know that SF, Cleveland and Miami will all pass on WR in favor of QB/RB. More importantly, I'm not convinced that Edwards is the top choice. Edwards is the better combine guy, great 40 time and leaping ability, but he tended to disappear against averae competition in college. Partly because Michigan was a pretty balanced team that played alot of D, but also because he simply didn't find ways to get into the action. Williams however always stepped up in the clutch. The bigger the game, the bigger he was. Speed seems to be overrated at WR, how many speedsters came out in the pros and never really got off the ground. Not to mention that I have a really bad taste in my mouth about Michigan receivers. I

I'm hoping he gets taking in the top three, removing the temptation for the Bears to take him. And if that doesn't happen, I hope someone offers to trade up toget him. I'd love to see the Bears get Williams, but I don't think many teams see him as the best value at #4.....he'd be there at #7. I'd take him anyways, but the Bears office doesn't think that way. They'd rather trade down for $0.80 on the dollar to avoid taking someone out of "position".

2) Best Player on the board

Watching all the workouts and reading the reports. I'm feeling that Ronnie Brown is probably the best guy out there. Really weird situation for him though. There's 3 stud backs out there in free agency who are seriously under-valued. If you're the Dolphins do you go with a proven guy, sure thing, with a big price tag (but still a bargain due to the thick RB market) and use the draft pick on QB? Or do you use the pick for a RB and fill that hole on the cheap? If it's me, I grab Alexander or Edge, take advantage of the glut of RBs (3 big FA and 3 stud rookies) and get a guy like Edge relatively cheap, and then use the pick to take either one of the stud WRs (of which there's a thin FA crop and huge drop off in talent in the draft after the top two) or take whichever of the QBs is still there if you think they are going to be sucessful.

Personally, I'd love them to do this since that might take Edwards off the board and leave Brown to the Bears. Almost forcing them to not fuck up that pick. Brown would be a much bigger asset than Edwards, though I'm not sure what the Bears would have to do to shore up WR after that.

3) Draft day trades

I think you'll see a few of these. Some that have big ramifications. All of the top 4 teams are looking to trade down. The parity at the top of the draft means that you can probably get equal talent at #2 as you will at #8, just at a bigger price tag. When this happens teams at the top of the trade tend to force trades. They have a guy like either Williams pegged as their fave, but almost no one thinks they are a top 5. What the harm in taking a guy you love at #3 is when he'd probably go at #7, I can't say, but this is how they think.

I don't think the 9ers will be able to move that pick. Though I am beginning to doubt that they'll take a QB. To rank the likelyhood of events:

1. They take Edwards
2. They take Rodgers
3. They trade down (Washington maybe?)

I think Cleveland will end up moving their pick, perhaps with Tennessee. Since they need help all over the board. They won't take a WR, but the RB crop is solid. They might even move down farther and get themselves a top DE in the middle of the round.

The Bears also aren't likely to make a move before the draft. However, if things get loopy at the top and one of those QBs or Ronnie Brown fall to them someone might make a last minute offer they can't refuse. If things go all chalk, no one will reach up to grab Edwards when M. Williams will be on the board too.

4) Team to Watch

Dallas. They have two first rounders and a need for WR and CB. I'm guessing Parcells, given the option, would probably rather address the WR positions and get a CB or LB somewhere in the next round. They'll be a possible canidate to leap up to grab a guy like Edwards. If they stand pat, they could make two real impact picks, a long shot at getting M. Williams at #11 or most likely Merriman, and then filling in with a best player available pick with #20 (Campbell maybe?)

I'd love to see the Bears make a #4 & #36 for #11 & #20 swap.

5) Biggest Potential Steal

Campbell...if he goes anywhere below #12, that team is getting a bargain. Dallas should pass on him at #11 since the only team who might take him before #20 is St. Louis at #19, and that's unlikely. No way he goes lower than Baltimore at #22.

If 2 of the top 3 teams pass on QB, Campbell could slide really far. Look for a team like B-more to make a trade up if Smith/Rodgers is still there at #7.

6) Team(s) with the most to gain

Miami, they have TONS of options. And if they play it smart, they could get good really fast. If they can secure a good RB and QB, one way or another, they'll make a fast turn around. Having all the cap room and the #2 pick is a dream situation....too bad there isn't a stronger #2 overall prospect.

San diego, me likey! That trade last year looks like it could pay off in spades here. They're in position to really get two immediate contributors on defense. A rush and and impact safety/LB.

Should be fun! Any other wannabe draftnicks out there chomping at the bit to prognosticate?

[meek]

Originally Posted by Omniscient

Any other wannabe draftnicks out there chomping at the bit to prognosticate?

I haven't prognosticated since I was a teenager. I'm pretty sure it's against the law up here.

Seriously Omni, I have nothing of value to add here. I just wanted to say that I thought the OP was very informative, well-written and interesting to read.

Yew one of dem sportswriters or sumtin'?

[duffer]

I don't have any deep analysis to add. Though I will say I'm rather underwhelmed with this year's draft class. Defense looks as deep as any other year, but offense is mostly a meh. At least from what I've seen. I'm getting nervous that Thompson isn't aggressively persuing F/A's to bring to Green Bay. I just don't see holding the NFC North if we're going to build the team around the draft.


Hot damn I can't wait for football season! The NFL is proof that God loves each and every one of us!

[Omniscient]

I disagree somewhat. I feel that this draft is a little on the light side defensively. Only a couple impact DEs, and they are not considered sure things, Pollack is considered the top guy and he's a bit of a tweener with reach and speed questions. There isn't a monster DT coming out, a position which has been taken the top 5 of the last 5 or so drafts. Its pretty deep in the secondary, but the LBs are pretty run of the mill.

Offensively there isn't a Vick, Moss, Palmer, Manning, or Tomlinson type guy out there. Plenty of solid guys that will produce, but none that are seen as franchise guys. Frankly, I think that's more perception than anything. This is however, a very deep draft. Especially the RB position. when was the last time you saw 3 RBs predicted to go in the top 6, followed by another 6 that are sure to go in the first 2 rounds. The QB crop is thin, but not as thin as some years, the top three will certainly go in the top half of the first round. Thats more than any year since 99, most didn't even have three in the first round altogether. There's only a couple stand out WR/TEs, but the top 2 are really really good.

I'd be willing to wager that this draft class will have more drafted players in the starting lineup at the start of their sophmore year than any in a decade.

[BigDummy]

The top 4 may want to trade down, I've heard SF really does, but I don't know if they're going to find that many takers. With this class it almost doesn't make much sense to move up. Even the top guys aren't utterly thrilling people, why jump to pay them more when you can get a guy almost as good for less.
I'd be surprised (and a little disapointed) if Dallas moves up. They have too many needs to reach for just one. WR & CB yes, but they also really need another good S to pair with Williams, Parcells isn't crazy about his LB's and they need a decent pass rusher in the worst way. A lot of places are predicting them to take one of the top DE's first (usually Merriman, another tweener) then either a WR or S with their 20. I also read that Parcells hates really high picks.
Locally, I'm curious what Gruden's going to do. If anybody could use moving down it's them, they have holes all over the place, but I doubt they will. Last I heard they're hoping one of the Williams will fall to them.
I totally agree about how deep this one is. Like any draft it's a crap shoot, but there does seem to be a lot of really good players out there.
The top couple of LB's are supposed to be OK, and Johnson's supposed to be really good, but he might not last long.

[The Scrivener]

As a Dolfan, I'm psyched. As the OP'er noted, Miami needs a QB and a RB (although I think securing a good QB is more crucial). We'll find out soon enough...

[Omniscient]

The new buzz has Alex Smith climbing up the boards. Supposedly Rodgers is a little too much of a prima donna for some of these teams looking for a QB. smith seems to be the "attitude guy", the buzz is getting loud enough that people are practically ready to garauntee someone will trade up for him.

This shocks me, and I'm inclined to ignore it as misinformation, but just about every guy who is "in the know" is selling it.

Alternatively, people mysteriously are now ranking Cedric Benson as the #1 RB....balderdash I say. However, the Bears suddenly could fuck this draft up after all.

Supposedly Gruden is really antsy to move up to grab a QB. Interesting, bet San Fran and Miami are listening intently, we'll see how much they need to offer. Honestly San Fran might trade straight up (not really since that be too much of a mess in negotiating) with them just avoid paying that huge signing bonus.

It's getting juicier by the day.

[Jimmy Chitwood]

Who has Benson at the top?

[Kiros]

Peter King of SI has Benson going a pick before Brown in his latest speculative mock. More generally, people seem to have about the same amount of respect for the top three RBs, the top two QBs, and the top couple of WRs... though incidentally, Len Pasquarelli of ESPN.com has Campbell actually ahead of Rodgers in his QB rankings.

I'm really excited about how many trades and how much general motion we may see in the first round, as well as how many extra picks both this year and in the future the Pats will manage to walk away with this year - particularly when they have much more in the way of needs than they have in the past few years. I think things at the top will depend even moreso than usual on how the individual teams have players ranked, as opposed to the "general consensus" - since the general consensus seems to have a lot less separation than usual.

[Ellis Dee]

Unlike last year, when every day before the draft was chock full of anticipation and prognostication, this year I'm mostly indifferent to the draft. My Giants have no first rounder, which turned out to be a major plus in free agency not having to earmark money for the 12th pick overall.

I'd like to see the Bills get Heath Miller at TE, but they (like the Giants) gave away their first rounder picking up a QB last year, (Losman, who I wanted for the Giants), but most people think Miller will go at the end of the first round. As such, I'd like to see Miller go to the Jets. They need a real TE, though not nearly as badly as the Billies; the guy behind Becht was a good pass catcher, though for the life of me I can't remember his name at this point. (And I had him on my woeful FF team.)

September 11th can't get here fast enough. Go Big Blue! Go Gang Green! Time to topple the divisional powerhouses and have both NY teams win their divisions. Or something.

[Omniscient]

OK, at this point I'm totally convinced that the QBs are going in the top 3. Not sure if it will be SF or Miami taking them, Tampa trading up or someone else trading up, but both top guys are going off the board before the 4th pick. If either one is still there at the 4th pick, expect someone to trade up with the Bears.

So, what are the Bears going to do. If my instinct is correct that the QBs go down early, that'll basically give the Bears more options and more chances to fuck things up.

Here's the scenarios I see happening in no particular order.

1) The scenario at the top I've predicted takes place leaving the bears with pretty much anyone they want. Cleveland or Miami probably chooses between Edwards and Benson/Brown/C. Williams. Whoever is highest on their board. That allows the Bears to take whoever is left. If I had to bet, it'd be Ronnie Brown.

2) The other scenario I hinted at happens, one of the QBs slip to #4 and someone trades up. Hopefully this puts the Bears somewhere in the low teens, giving them a shot at a guy like Mike Williams though I doubt he gets past Minnesota or the third RB off the board.

3) I'm totally wrong and both Brown and Edwards go off the board early and everyone expects either Rodgers/Smith to slide to them or Campbell to be there as a fall back, negating the value in trading up. this puts teh Bears in a tough spot. They need a WR much more than a RB, but here one of the RBs is probably a better "value" than M. Williams. I'd prefer to see them make a slight reach for Williams and try and negotiate a slightly below scale bonus instead of taking another RB before they know whats going to happen with the incumbents and the free agents.

Whichever scenario plays ut, if it end up with teh Bears getting Mike Williams I'm satisfied, even if most people don't have him ranked as the #4 player in the draft. He fits, and doesn't have "head case" written all over him.

One more note, I'm to the point where I'm practically certain that all three QBs will go in the top 10. If the FA RB market wasn't so flush, I'd be equally sure that the top 3 RBs will go in the top 10 too. And I won't be a shred surprised to see the top 3 WRs (insert Clayton at #3) go in the top ten too. There isn't a single defensive player that's a sure thing, and two top CBs are the only one's I can envision going higher than 10. Could be a really interesting first hour.

[Omniscient]

Originally Posted by Omniscient

OK, at this point I'm totally convinced that the QBs are going in the top 3.

Sorry, refering to Smith and Rodgers here.....not Campbell when discussing the top three picks.

[Omniscient]

One last thing. If the Bears take Benson at #4, I'm throwing myself off a fucking bridge.

[Omniscient]

According to this report Washington has acquired the 25th overall pick for a 3rd rounder this year and a first and fourth rounder next year.

Awful deal. Just awful, Isiah Thomas must be consulting.

First off, there is NO way that Campbell is still there at 25. Its unlikely under normal cicumstances, it becomes a complete impossibility when everyone knows you want him there. If he's still on the board at #20, teams will be clamoring to trade up in front of the 'Skins. Wow, looks like the game has really passed ole Gibbs by.

Secondly, the odds of Washington finishing in the top 7 teams next year is virtually nil. That means denver gets a 3 this year, a 4 next year, and if I had to guess, a mid-teen overall pick next year. Ouch.

Is anyone around here actually a Redskin's fan? Bet those folks in Philly, Dallas and NYC are thrilled.

[Kiros]

Agreed... that trade is brutal. It's one thing if you do it on draft day when he's on the board at that spot, to take a chance on a guy... but to do it in advance, and to let the world know what you're after? It sounds so stupid that they would almost have to be bluffing, but if they're bluffing, they paid WAY too much for the pick they got.

[VarlosZ]

Wow, that's an awful trade. A 1st (very likely high-mid, based on recent performance), a 3rd, and a 4th for a late 1st Rounder in a relatively weak draft class? As a Giants fan, I love Dan Snyder. . .

[Madd Maxx]

That midget is ruining my life! He's ruining Joe Gibb's Hall of Fame credentials. He's ruining my Redskins. This is the type of trade the computer offers you in Madden. It's insulting, degrading, and he took it! I can only hope that Mark Brunell and Dan Snyder spontaneously combust and leave the team to someone, anyone else. Mark Cuban would be nice.

[Omniscient]

Originally Posted by Madd Maxx

That midget is ruining my life! He's ruining Joe Gibb's Hall of Fame credentials. He's ruining my Redskins. This is the type of trade the computer offers you in Madden. It's insulting, degrading, and he took it! I can only hope that Mark Brunell and Dan Snyder spontaneously combust and leave the team to someone, anyone else. Mark Cuban would be nice.

Hate to break it to you, but this trade was probably 95% Joe Gibbs' decision. Snyder has gotten out and left player decisions to Gibbs. Face it, the guy is a dud.

[Lord Ashtar]

Originally Posted by Omniscient

Is anyone around here actually a Redskin's fan? Bet those folks in Philly, Dallas and NYC are thrilled.

I am. That's what The Danny does. He mortgages draft picks. Pretty soon he'll be saying, "Okay, give me your first rounder this year, and I'll give you my first rounder next year and two years from now."

A GM! My kingdom for a GM!

[Hal Briston]

Originally Posted by Omniscient

Is anyone around here actually a Redskin's fan? Bet those folks in Philly, Dallas and NYC are thrilled.

As a Giants fan, let me just say...
[Nelson]
Ha ha!
[/Nelson]

[Hamlet]

Excellent, well researched, and intelligent posts, Omni. I would expect nothing less from the 8th place finisher in our fantasy league. Scouting which of these guys you're grabbing in the fantasy draft this fall? You're already sitting damn pretty in that league for next year, you bastard! I'd love to have your team.

Anywho, your posts are tainted by their focus on the Bears. It's a shame you have to waste such obvious talent and passion rooting for a mediocre team, but to each their own.

Here's some of my thoughts:

1) Contrary to most people, I think this is a strong draft class all the way down. Granted there are no clear "franchise" guys like E. Manning, R. Gallery, C. Palmer, or A. Johnson, but I think the talent level is still high, and the draft is deep. I think this years draft will be a doozy, with a lot of teams improving through the draft.

2) What is up with running backs in the NFL? E. James, S. Alexander, T. Henry, A. Thomas, and W. Green were all available, some too highly priced, yet nobody has taken them. Add to that three talented rookies in Brown, Benson, and Williams, and it appears there's a glut of potential 1,300 yard guys in the NFL. Which decreases the value of the big three rookies. Hell, it took 24 picks to take the first running back last year, I'm surprised there is all this hype about this years class when there is so much talent available.

3) Braylon Edwards v. Mike Williams - Even though he's a Michigan guy, Braylon all the way. Mike Williams is great, don't get me wrong, but he doesn't have the elite speed, or the experience, to be a T.O. or a Randy Moss. Heck, I like M. Clayton better than Williams. Braylon is a lot like R. Moss, he's fast, big, and, unfortunately, a bit of a head case. That's why he tends to disappear against mediocre teams, but comes up big in huge games, like this years Rose Bowl. Braylon would be a great pickup for any team, if he gets his head straight, which he did this year. It's Randy Moss v. Keyshaun Johnson.

4) Underrated guys: Mark Clayton, WR. The second best wide receiver in the draft, who may fall even to the second round. He's a poor man's Marvin Harrison. He's on the small side, but he's fast, runs great routes, and is smart. He's a big time, productive player who only needs to strengthen up a bit, and he'll be an immediate impact player. Plus he saves people from car accidents, so he's a good guy too.

Demarcus Ware. Again, another great player who gets knocked for being too small. He's quick, relentless, and smart. He needs just a bit of work on coverage, if he's used in a 3-4 defense, but he too will make an immediate impact. Think Dwight Freeney.

5) Overrated guys: Troy Williamson, WR. He's a guy who has flown up the draft board recently, and I just don't see it. He's fast. That's it. He's fast. Which can help, but I'm not impressed with his ability to catch the ball, or his heart to go over the middle. I don't think he's not ready for the NFL. It's just a personal opinion, but this guy will not make it in the NFL.

Mike Williams, WR. See above.

Aaron Rodgers, Alex Smith - I haven't seen enough of either one for this opinion to be really sound, but neither of these guys impresses me all that much, and certainly not enough to be drafted in the top 5.

6) Just shut up about..... Tommy Chang. I'm sick of all the draftniks going on about this flash in the pan Ty Detmer clone.


7) The Packers - The most pressing needs for the Pack are at safety and guards. They also need another linebacker, another pass rushing DE, and maybe an heir to Favre. I'd love to see Ware, Spears, or Pollack fall. I'd also love a couple million dollars. I'd like to see them getting Dan Buenning in the third or fourth round.

Just some rambling thoughts to get you through till Sunday.

[NurseCarmen]

What gets me is Mel Kiper's big board has Mike Williams moving up past Braylon Edwards. Hey, as a Viking fan, I'll be thrilled to see BE drop to #7. But that would only happen in my dream world.

I don't see RBs flying off the board too early this year, since the FA market was barely touched. And I see Rolle coming off the board earlier than most mocks I've seen. WRs and QBs will dominate the top 10. Edwards and Williams will be taken by the time my beloved Vikes pick at 7, and the vikings will pick up a running back even though they don't need one. If Braylon is picked up at one or two, or even three, look for the Vikings to weigh their options of trading up. If they don't, and those WRs are gone, look for the Vikes to trade down with a loss of value.

The biggest steal of the draft just might be the now admitted steroid user Luis Castillo, who will probably drop to Sunday after his confession. Whoever picks him up will never regret it, the kid has a motor. And I believe him.

[Hamlet]

Originally Posted by NurseCarmen

Edwards and Williams will be taken by the time my beloved Vikes pick at 7, and the vikings will pick up a running back even though they don't need one.

I understand the "best player available" theory of drafting, but, in the Vikings case, I don't think that would be the best pick. I think the 'queens should end up with either M. Williams, or Rolle or A. Jones. Any of those guys will be a much better pick than Benson, Brown, or Cadillac.

[Omniscient]

Regarding running backs, I totally agree with the logic that all these free agents mitigate the value of the Rooks, but it works the other way too. And considering that none of these FAs have been strongly linked to any one team, the draft is probably going to see action on RB. If a team like the Cardinals think Henry and the Bills want too much, taking Brown on the cheap is a hell of a deal. Sure getting Henry and M. Williams would be a nice start, but is it worth giving up draft picks and about 20% of your cap?

I think Ronnie Brown, with his size/speed and multiple skills put him at or above every free agent except Alexander. Yes, I know Edge and Henry are good, but Edge is aging and injury prone and Henry hasn't shown enough consistency. Getting Brown at $0.60 on the dollar is a good value bet.

Caddilac and Benson will be solid, but probably shouldn't be taken above a proven vet. They aren't the can't miss prospects I think Brown is.

Hamlet, I forget where the info for that league is. Honestly I've practically forgotten my team and draft slot. Damn that Vodka.

Michigan WRs are the football equivalent of Duke Point Gaurds. No thanks.

[Omniscient]

I'm convinced speed is over-rated. Moss is the only guy who really uses his speed to be a game-changer in the league now. I'd even argue that his height and leaping ability are the bigger factor.

If you're the Rams or Colts, I can see putting a premium on speed. However, if you're any of the top 4 teams, you don't have a QB capable of taking advantage, and offensive system built to exploit, or a coach inclined to stretch the field enough to have an impact. Taking Williams, a guy with monster soft hands, a guy who always got open in the middle and knows how to get open in the endzone, will jave the stronger impact on teh offense as a whole.

Even the no-doubt quality veterans in the Edwards mold (think Chaz and Andre Johnson, Plaxico, Fitzgerald) aren't really guys who have turned their teams around. As nice as they are for the highlight reel and fantasy numbers, they don't help offenses control games.

I'd compare Williams to guys like Chambers, Muhammed, Toomer, Boldin and Rod Smith, all of which I think were more indespensible to the offenses than a homerun hitter. I can tell you right now that Braylon Edwards will not be effective over the middle.

Gimme Williams or Clayton over Edwards every time. I could be wrong and he might be the next Moss......but odds are he's not.

[BigDummy]

Thomas & Green both had one decent season and have been pretty mediocre otherwise, to put it nicely. Henry is pretty good but he puts the ball on the ground a lot, which scares some people, and I got the impression that Buffalo may be asking quite a bit for someone they have no intention of playing. Last I heard the Bucs were still talking though. The other two are real expensive.
I'm not quite that sold on Brown. He looks like he will be real good, but I didn't think he's had that much actual production. Is there a reason Williams got more playing time? And even though Brown should be better, there could be worse choices than Benson.

Personally, if Gruden gives up anything to move up and take one of those QB's I'm gonna be super-pissed. Even if they do get one of the veteran RB's they have way too many other needs, and I wasn't that impressed by either of those 2 guys.

[Hamlet]

Originally Posted by Omniscient

Regarding running backs, I totally agree with the logic that all these free agents mitigate the value of the Rooks, but it works the other way too. And considering that none of these FAs have been strongly linked to any one team, the draft is probably going to see action on RB. If a team like the Cardinals think Henry and the Bills want too much, taking Brown on the cheap is a hell of a deal. Sure getting Henry and M. Williams would be a nice start, but is it worth giving up draft picks and about 20% of your cap?

Edge and Shaun, I think, have proven themselves worth a first round draft pick. Edge is only 26, and it appears he's completely recovered from the injury. And he put up 2,000+ yards last year. Shaun could be even better. Although they would definitely be a salary cap concern, I'd have no problem getting one of them over an unproven rookie. Benson isn't fast enough, has a lot of miles, and could just be an overblown TJ Duckett. Brown might be a stud, but how come he couldn't beat out Cadillac? Give me a proven stud over these three anyday. Even Travis Henry, who is only going to get 1.25 million this year, is a better option, to me at least.

Originally Posted by Omni

I think Ronnie Brown, with his size/speed and multiple skills put him at or above every free agent except Alexander. Yes, I know Edge and Henry are good, but Edge is aging and injury prone and Henry hasn't shown enough consistency. Getting Brown at $0.60 on the dollar is a good value bet.

Brown, as I said, is too risky for me. While there is a lot to like about the guy, and he may very well be a stud in the league, I'd much rather a proven commodity.

Originally Posted by Omni

Hamlet, I forget where the info for that league is. Honestly I've practically forgotten my team and draft slot. Damn that Vodka.

Here is the site and here are the draft results. J. Jones, J. Witten, and M. Clayton are a nice start to next year. Sure, not as good as S. Jackson and ummmmmmm.... well, maybe not.

Originally Posted by Omni

Michigan WRs are the football equivalent of Duke Point Gaurds. No thanks.

They're due.

Originally Posted by BigDummy

Personally, if Gruden gives up anything to move up and take one of those QB's I'm gonna be super-pissed. Even if they do get one of the veteran RB's they have way too many other needs, and I wasn't that impressed by either of those 2 guys.

I'm guessing he'll wait and see. Cleveland is the big question mark for them.

[Jimmy Chitwood]

Originally Posted by Omniscient

I'm convinced speed is over-rated. Moss is the only guy who really uses his speed to be a game-changer in the league now.

I'm not sure about all that. Pick a position and chances are the best game-changers over the last few years have had at the minimum great speed, if not uber-elite speed. Ray Lewis, Torry Holt, Freeney, Ed Reed, Vick, Moss, Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, Derrick Brooks, Jason Taylor... there aren't that many players who you can say are, or have been the best in the league at their position who aren't really fast. The trendy thing lately is to downplay guys' combine numbers, which is fine, but you give me a good football player with insane speed, and I promise you he'll make a difference on the field.

All that said, I like Mike Williams way more than Edwards, although I don't think Edwards is going to be a bust or anything. It's just that Williams is 230 friggin' pounds, and I'm not sure I believe that Edwards is really that much quicker than him to begin with. Really, if I was any team in the top 10 I'd be looking to trade down if I wanted to draft a skill position, because I don't think #1 is much better than #'s 2, 3 or 4 at any of them.

At running back, I think I might, just might prefer to have Cadillac over the others. I recognize that Brown's bigger, faster, and better in the passing game, but I love Williams as a runner. Brown doesn't have anywhere near the shake that Cadillac has, and they're probably a wash in terms of moving the pile.

Oh yeah, and I'd take Derrick Johnson #1 overall, no matter what team I was.

[Ellis Dee]

Originally Posted by Jimmy Chitwood

I'm not sure about all that. Pick a position and chances are the best game-changers over the last few years have had at the minimum great speed, if not uber-elite speed. Ray Lewis, Torry Holt, Freeney, Ed Reed, Vick, Moss, Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, Derrick Brooks, Jason Taylor... there aren't that many players who you can say are, or have been the best in the league at their position who aren't really fast. The trendy thing lately is to downplay guys' combine numbers, which is fine, but you give me a good football player with insane speed, and I promise you he'll make a difference on the field.

I think he was talking specifically about the WR position. If he was, I'd tend to agree. Hands and vertical are really all the matters. It seems like every team has a blazing fast WR or two, but they rarely are one of the two starters. Santana Moss is a prime example of a speedy WR who would be much better losing some speed to improve his hands. Or grow a few inches.

I've been poking around looking at potential Giants selections at #43 overall. The second round can yield some high impact players. Last time Big Blue had no first rounder, our first pick was also #43 overall. We used it to pick up Michael Strahan, which turned out pretty good.

Our glaring holes were MLB, OL, and WR, but thanks to free agency, our glaring holes are now HB2, DL depth, and CB. I have no idea who we'd take as a RB, but I don't really think it matters. For whatever reason, I just feel like any old 3rd or 4th round RB would do fine in the NFL.

The two prospects I've heard tossed around are both centers. David Haas is the one most fans seem to be slobbering all over, but an equal number feel he won't be on the board at 43, so the second choice, and the more intriguing one, IMO, is Chris Spence. (Spencer?) He was the C/IL at Ole Miss, and actually started at center for Eli in 4 games. He's in the mold of Chris Snee, and seems to have great upside. This wouldn't bode well for O'Hara, who I don't dislike, but I prefer my Giants to be career Giants.

Having the young core of the OL be Snee/Spence/Diehl for years to come is an enticing prospect for the future. And having Petitgout/McKenzie on the corners in the immediate future would give us an almost respectable line, which seems to be unheard of in the recent past of the Giants. Toss in Seubert (get well soon) and Whittle and there is even a tiny bit of depth.

Despite the OL not being anywhere near the position of need, I wouldn't mind even a tiny bit if we used our first pick on a center. I wouldn't even mind using the second one as well on the OL. Screw everything else; I want a good (and deep) OL for the first time since our last Superbowl run. Of course, if Tiki goes down, Coach Coughlin's pet poject from BC (Mike Cloud) is a frightening prospect to step in and take over...we'd be fucked.

One thing I don't understand is all the Giants fans kvetching over who will be the heir apparent to Strahan, when it is so clearly Osi Umenyiora. He was an animal last year once all the vets went down and he got the chance to start. Am I the only one to think this?

[The Big Cheese]

Originally Posted by Hamlet

7) The Packers - The most pressing needs for the Pack are at safety and guards. They also need another linebacker, another pass rushing DE, and maybe an heir to Favre. I'd love to see Ware, Spears, or Pollack fall. I'd also love a couple million dollars. I'd like to see them getting Dan Buenning in the third or fourth round.

Just some rambling thoughts to get you through till Sunday.

The db's have been getting a lot of play around here. GB needs them, plus lb's & de's & dl's. And a QB. Odell Thurman and Marlin Jackson have been mentioned, know nothing about either. I just read that Thurman is an undersized db....which reminds me of another undersized db they had whose initials were Terrel Buckley. Oh no.

TB needs a QB again? What happened to Simms? I thought he was going to be so good?

Is Charlie Frye, QB form Akron worth a high pick?

[Ellis Dee]

Originally Posted by Me

I'd like to see the Bills get Heath Miller at TE, but they (like the Giants) gave away their first rounder picking up a QB last year, (Losman, who I wanted for the Giants), but most people think Miller will go at the end of the first round. As such, I'd like to see Miller go to the Jets. They need a real TE, though not nearly as badly as the Billies; the guy behind Becht was a good pass catcher, though for the life of me I can't remember his name at this point. (And I had him on my woeful FF team.)

I'm a big fan of Jolley's, but I'm disappointed by yesterday's trade on two levels. First, I wanted Collins to have Jolley to throw to; Tra Thomas is quick, but I think Jolley's hands are a little better. Second, I really would have rather seen the Jets noticeably improve at the TE position. While Jolley is an improvement, it's not a big one, like Heath Miller would have been.

Ignoring my side allegiance to the Raiders for the moment, I'll find out whether I'm happy with this trade on Saturday around 4:00pm. If Miller is still on the board at 26, I'll be pissed. Even moreso (from the Jets perspective) if the Raiders pick him up. Assuming he's not still on board, which I presume is what the Jets were thinking when making this trade, then it's not a bad trade after all.

I'd really like to see the Billies trade Henry to the Phins for McMichael, ideally getting back some change. Maybe a 4th rounder? It'd be well worth it.

[Omniscient]

Originally Posted by Jimmy Chitwood

I'm not sure about all that. Pick a position and chances are the best game-changers over the last few years have had at the minimum great speed, if not uber-elite speed. Ray Lewis, Torry Holt, Freeney, Ed Reed, Vick, Moss, Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, Derrick Brooks, Jason Taylor... there aren't that many players who you can say are, or have been the best in the league at their position who aren't really fast. The trendy thing lately is to downplay guys' combine numbers, which is fine, but you give me a good football player with insane speed, and I promise you he'll make a difference on the field.

As Ellis Dee noted I was speaking narrowly to include only WRs. When you talk about pretty much any defensive position, speed kills. I do tend to downplay speed from a RB a little too, but not to the degree that I do for WR. Hell, Jerry Rice didn't have uber-speed. He was fast enough, but the hands and cuts were his biggest assets.

Another Bears tidbit. If they take a WR at #4 or trade back and don't get an elite RB in the first round, expect them to take a long look at JJ Arrington with their second rounder.

[Omniscient]

Originally Posted by Ellis Dee

I'd really like to see the Billies trade Henry to the Phins for McMichael, ideally getting back some change. Maybe a 4th rounder? It'd be well worth it.

I'm sure you'd love this, but let me tell you, it'll never happen. Miami has way to many viable options at RB to give up a guy of McMichael's skill level at such a hard position to fill. The only chance Saban makes this type of move is if he plans to script an office that wholly disregards the TE position. Seeing what he's done in the past, I doubt it. Also consider that if Miami trades a TE to the Bills, they end up with a TE situation even worse than that of the Bills now. If anything Miami would be wanting some change for this one.

[Omniscient]

Grrrr.....

office = offense


Also, to comment on this story.

Lets see, the Jets get Doug Jolley, a second rounder and two sixth rounders.

The Raiders get the 26th pick, and a seventh rounder.

This seems like a fairly even trade. I think the Raiders gave up a little too much, but considering that they have a ton of picks this year they can afford to. They now have the 26th, 37th, 69th and 78th picks overall in the top 100.

Wonder who they Raiders will be eyeing at #25. Wouldn't be surprised to see them package those 26th and 37th picks to move up into the mid-teens for a guy they really love. the really need WR help, and depending on where Clayton is slated to go he could be their guy. That'd actually be a pretty good fit, though they probably need more help on the defensive side. Wouldn;t be shocked to see them take Frye at 37 either, though most people probably have him charted lower. It'll be interesting to see where Campbell goes. If he gets taken before 25, it might cause teams to reach for the next best guy earlier thna usual. If Campbell actually slips to the Skins, it could indicate that most teams aren't interested in QB. Frye could even fall to the 3rd round, though probably not that 69th pick.

[Ellis Dee]

Originally Posted by Omniscient

Also, to comment on this story.

Thanks for the link; I'm a lazy bastard.

Wonder who they Raiders will be eyeing at #25. Wouldn't be surprised to see them package those 26th and 37th picks to move up into the mid-teens for a guy they really love. the really need WR help, and depending on where Clayton is slated to go he could be their guy. That'd actually be a pretty good fit, though they probably need more help on the defensive side.

There's no way they take a WR, with the tandem they have already. They dumped Asomugha for Moss, and in effect packaged Buchanon & Jolley for a first rounder in a three-way deal with the Texans and Jets. (It's like they're playing Madden 2005 over there.)

Even if they still had Asomugha and Buchanon, they'd still need serious help on D. Without them, their D is about as bad as the Giants' pass protection was last year. (Didn't the Raiders finish dead last in pretty much every defensive category last year?) However, if Miller is on the board at 26, it would be tough to pass him up. KC can do some damage with a TE.

Damn, I wouldn't have the stomach to be a GM in the NFL.

[Omniscient]

I really need to learn to preview

"eyeing at #26"


Anyways, lets tie up a loose end that I overlooked arly this week, the other Raider deal warrants comment.

The breakdown.

Raiders get: second and thrid rounders (47th and 73rd/78th overall, CBS and ESPN don't seem clear on which of Houston's 3rds the Raiders got.)

Texans get: Buchanon

Interesting deal. Wonder what the story on Buchanon is, he's got an awful lot of skill and potential, bonus for return skills, for him to be given up for so little. Granted, in this years deep-as-all-hell draft, 2 picks on the first day are pretty valuable. He obviously has crapped the bed in Oakland, and shown a propensity for being a bit of a head case, but if he turns it around in Houston, they got a steal!

The biggest plus to the deal for Houston is that he's locked up for 2 more years at about $750k per.....cheap for a first round CB. Hell, thats cheap for a return specialist.

As we've seen, the Raiders are doing their best to make the most of picks this year, using one of these picks in this trade to move back into the first round.

They could walk away from the table on Sunday with the additions of Moss, another top rated WR or CB, a solid project QB, and some late round defensive depth. If they wait a year on QB, you could toss in a solid LB. Would anyone be shocked to see the Raiders roll the dice on Luis Castillo with that 3rd rounder?

[Jimmy Chitwood]

I'd be shocked that he was still available in the third.

[Omniscient]

You might be right, all depends how that steriod thing resonates, coming just as Tags is due up in Congress.


Anyways, here's a really interesting article about the top picks.

Got me to thinking about some of my assumptions. Most of his rankings are about the same as mine, though I think he too easily forgives the issues that Pac-man and Edwards have. Dropping balls is dropping balls, don't care why. And you can't convince me a Thug is a smart top 5 pick.

However, the stuff about Rolle, Brown and the Williamses is dead on. God I hope the Bears don't end up with Benson.

[Omniscient]

T-minus 23 hrs 30 min until San Fran is officially on the clock.

Another trade with draft day implications.

Miami gets: KC's 2nd rounder, #46 overall and 5th rounder.

Kansas City gets: Rights to Patrick Surtain and Miami's 5th rounder.

Looks to be a pretty square trade. Miami wasn't going to bring him back this year due to salary cap issues. He's too good to go for less than a 2nd rounder. the only real impact here is that Miami gets an additional 2nd rounder which is sorely needed. Partially because they need to fill alot of holes and can get a contributor there, or possibly even more important, it's an additional bargaining chip to balance a possible trade back situation. Maybe a team like Minnesota gives up the two high first rounders for that #2 overall if they are able to get a mid-second rounder back to balance it a little. Though, reports have Minnesota's desire to trade up pretty slim.

Wonder if there's any chance that the Bears can trade back to somewhere around #10 and take M. Williams, I just don't see tham getting him at #4, instead they'll pick a running back not names Ronnie Brown. Shit.

[furt]

It occured to me today that I am deeply screwed up, because I am hoping my Iggles will take Matt Jones at either #31 or #35. It makes some sense: he's big enough to be a TE in a pass-first offense, but also fast enough to be a WR; and those are both positions Philly has need at, either this year or next.

So why am I screwed up? Because the real reason is because he'll be fun to play with in Madden.

[Ellis Dee]

Originally Posted by furt

So why am I screwed up? Because the real reason is because he'll be fun to play with in Madden.

hehheh, I feel ya, brother. In my weekly gamer night, where Madden is usually the order of the day, we play Giants (me), Jets, and Steelers. Luckily the Jets guy had already released McKenzie after the second season, so I was able to easily snatch him up once the Giants got him. (I also dropped Hilliard immediately when the Giants did.) However, the Steelers guy has made it abundantly clear -- in no uncertain terms -- that Plaxico will remain a Steeler until the next version. I do enjoy busting his stones a bit, though. ("Nice play. Too bad you need Giants to make your plays for you. Don't you have any good Steelers?")

I so wanted Sean Taylor in the draft last year that I picked him up to replace Stoutmire. Now he's too good to release, so I can't wait for next year when Gibril Wilson will hopefully be in the game, assuming they bother to create him. Speaking of Giants players not existing, this might be the first Madden version in years that will include the Giants starting kicker from opening day on the roster. Check this out:

2005: Should have been Steve Christie, who didn't exist. Instead was Matt Bryant.
2004: Should have been Matt Bryant, who didn't exist. Instead was Bill Grammatica.
2003: Should have been Matt Bryant, who didn't exist. Instead was Owen Pochman.
2002: Was correctly Owen Pochman. Good job, guys! *ugh*

Maybe Jay Feely is a big enough name so that Madden can include him on my friggin' roster for a change. You'll notice that Matt Bryant, who was the real life starter for two years, and of whom I was (and am) a big fan, didn't even exist in Madden until the Giants released him. So annoying. I give that "Create a Player" feature a workout every year.

[VarlosZ]

Just thought I'd post a link to the final mock draft from NFL Draft Countdown. The website is a little rickety (you may have to reload the page once or twice), and they could use an editor to help with basic punctuation, but the guy who runs the site really knows his stuff -- last year's final mock draft was eerily accurate.

Anyway, best mock draft on the web. Just thought I'd post it.

[Ellis Dee]

Originally Posted by VarlosZ

Just thought I'd post a link to the final mock draft from NFL Draft Countdown. The website is a little rickety (you may have to reload the page once or twice), and they could use an editor to help with basic punctuation, but the guy who runs the site really knows his stuff -- last year's final mock draft was eerily accurate.

Anyway, best mock draft on the web. Just thought I'd post it.

Interesting. I was all prepared to look up the Giants picks and point out that he doesn't know what he's talking about, but his picks for the G-Men sound both good and plausible.

However, if Miller drops all the way to the Steelers, (and I've heard this in several mock drafts), then the Jets made the all-time worst fucking trade imaginable. Jolley over Miller?! (I like how he gives Shockey props, too. Moreso than the folks at the giants.com messageboards do, anyway.)

The easiest way (for me) to see if a mock draft has done its homework is the later rounds. ESPN's, for example, has Big Blue drafting 2 WRs. Since they only have 4 picks, that's half their entire draft at WR. WR happens to be one of the few positions where the G-Men have a glut of talent and absolutely no need whatsoever, so picking up a single WR is a strike against credibility, but two is just a joke. (Since Shockey is pretty much the de facto slot receiver, we almost never see the third WR in the game. And we have 3 pretty good candidates...Tim Carter, Jamaar Taylor, and David Tyree...competing for that one underused position. And EPSN has us spending half our draft at WR? WTF?)

Less than 90 minutes now. Unlike Eli, I'm getting pumped.

[furt]

Shockey sucks.


What do people think about the value chart the NFL uses to grade the value of picks? I think this thing is horsecra, whic probably explains why I think so many draft-day trades are idiotic. According to it, having the number-one overall is worth more than having #16, 17 and 18.

That's ridiculous, given the success rates on first round picks, to say nothing of the fact that the salaries for the guys at the top are waaay higher than the guys picked just five or ten slots lower.

[Weirddave]

Hey Omni, the Bears took Benson.

[Ellis Dee]

Originally Posted by Ellis Dee

I'm a big fan of Jolley's, but I'm disappointed by yesterday's trade on two levels. First, I wanted Collins to have Jolley to throw to; Tra Thomas is quick, but I think Jolley's hands are a little better.

Not sure what I was thinking, but to clarify, I meant Teyo Johnson.

Clearly the Detroit Lions have been studying the drafting principles of Denny Green. Enough first round receivers over there yet? Good Lord.

Originally Posted by furt

Shockey sucks.

Is this a trash talking thread now? Hey, didja hear about the new & improved hurry up offense in next year's Madden? You slow down until you run out of time. Also, holding the A button down after the play ends makes your QB hurl in the huddle.

(If anybody was wondering, McNabb is the cover boy.)

[asterion]

Originally Posted by Omniscient

Is anyone around here actually a Redskin's fan? Bet those folks in Philly, Dallas and NYC are thrilled.

As a Broncos fan, I would just like to thank the idiocy on Washington's part that went into making that trade.

[BabaBooey]

Please oh please oh please DJ fall to NO. We've been just missing out on that impact LB for several years now.

[wmulax93]

As a Lions fan, I'm stuck between excited and confused.

A huge WR/TE combo like MWill could be great, but what happens to everyone else?

I think it has to happen like this:

WR: C. Rogers, R Williams

Slot: K Johnson

TE: M Williams

H-Back: M Pollard

RB: K Jones

[BabaBooey]

That's a dangerous team Detroit has, too bad they don't have a QB to distribute the ball. I'll put the Harrington over under at 4 games and I'll take the under.

As desperate as the Aints are at defense, we REALLY needed help on that side of the Oline. Riley was horrible there, and if you saw the 2nd NO TB game last season, you would know the only reason it was close at all is because we were getting pushed around up there. If the Ruud, the Nebraska boy falls to use in the 2nd round (8th pick), we'll be in good shape.