In the Chris Rock film Head of State, when Rock’s character (a DC alderman) is drafted to run for president (just as a kind of sacrificial lamb, to position the party better for next time), national magazines run headlines like, “Are We Ready?” “Is America Ready?” Except for Ebony, whose cover announces, “It’s About Time!”
Is it?
Every time this idea is seriously discussed, there seems to be a general assumption that a Jesse Jackson or an Al Sharpton is flatly unelectable, and the first black president would have to be a conservative, ideally a Republican, like Colin Powell or Condi Rice. Personally, I doubt an African-American could ever get the Republican nomination. The party leadership might be comfortable with the idea – but ever since Nixon’s “Southern Strategy,” the party’s mass base includes a lot of white Southern conservatives who disaffected from the Dems precisely because of that party’s support of black equality. And I don’t think that attitude has died out quite yet.
At one time, Colin Powell was considered electable, but he decided against it. And Condoleezza Rice’s main handicaps might be that she is single and a woman, not that she is African-American.
As much as it pains me to say it, I don’t think an African-American woman has a snowball’s chance of getting elected, at least within my lifetime. Neither party would be willing to nominate a black woman— they’d rather play it safe with an older white guy.
I would like to think that we’re enlightened enough to elect an African-American, but frankly, there is a segment of the population who would never vote for a black candidate for that office.
And a female candidate better be as pure as the driven snow.
Oh, not this old saw again. Yes, Republicans absorbed them. And then spent the following 40 years shoving them into modernity. It’s no accident that Republicans hounded and evicted any major political figure who uttered the slightest rhetorical gaffe in the general vicinity of racism.
Besides, Republicans are remarkably practical. I assure you that if a good canidate arose, Republicans would take him (or yes, her) over losing to Democrats every time.
The real problem is that there aren’t many promising up-and-coming African American politicos anywhere. Condoleeza Rice is smart and well-liked, but she’s not a campaigner and she’s not a politician. Policy wonks rarely get elected. Colin Powell, of course, backed out of any such entanglement.
This tends to be a self-fulfilling prophecy, of course. If African-Americans think Republicans are racist, then they never run as Republicans, so there are no blak Republican politicians, so blacks think the Republicans are racist…
On the Democrats’ side, the choices are also rather slim. You’ve got Barrack Obama, who is better than the old men. OTOH, I’m not sure he’s really got the chops for the Presidency. He’s warm and personable, but I’m not sure Obama can really impress a national audience. I’ve been watching him, and aside from any policy issues, he’s just not very effective or interesting. I don’t think he can win a Presidential election; he just doesn’t have the credibility inside or outside the D-P.
I think a Moderate to Conservative African-American could get elected POTUS.
IMHO: The unfortunate facts are that this candidate will not only have to be better than his opponents are, he will need to be completely clean and with an extremely solid record.
• An African-American could not have a military record like Bush.
• Could not have any sex scandals in their past
• Family members must all be above board
• Have somehow avoided Pork Deals so probably needs to be a Governor or Military Flag officer or maybe a Businessman
I wonder if Obama can give himself a moderate voting record and possible be a viable candidate in 7 years.
You’re talking about the Republican leaders. I’m talking about the Republican voters. They’re the ones who ultimately determine who gets the nomination – or, at least, they exercise an effective veto power there.
And I think you’re grossly underestimating the level of residual racism among today’s Republican voters.
Well, he’s only a freshman senator whom no one had heard of two years ago. I think he might grow into it in time.
His WMD speech to the UN hurt his credibility with the Dems.
He was acting under false information and by being a good soldier and doing his job despite his protests he put a large stain on his otherwise incredible record.
I would still vote for him happily and I would like to see him as the VP on McCain or Rudy G’s ticket.
I don’t think he would pick up enough extra votes from the Democrats and Anti-war Independents.
Of course I might be giving the average voter too much credit, maybe they still just think of him as untainted. I hope so.
Honestly/ I think you’re understimating the racism of Democrats. And Greens. And possibly Libertarians.
Fact is, people vote for people like them. Blacks will tend to vote for someone who they feel are like them. White people will tend to be more comfortable with people who look like them. I’m not sure if it’s possible to get around it.
That’s possible. In practice, long years in the Senate do not a good Presidential canidate make. I’m not saying he could never do it, but he’d need to go Governor, and probably soon.
Actually, we knew more about his politics than we liked. Mostly, he seems not to have had any. He just isn’t and wasn’t a poltician, and wasn’t very interested in politics. Which is why the idea never gained any momentum.
Right now, I don’t think Obama will have a chance because he’s just so junior. Give it a term or two, and he might have a better chance then, though of course he will then have his Senate record working against him.
Personally, I think a black governor (especially from the south or west) would have a better chance than a black Senator or Representative. Just because of the way American politics is. I mean, look at the Presidental candidates from the Senate the last few decades and see how well they faired, compared to the men actually who won. Bush–Texas governor against a VP and former Senator; Clinton–Arkansas governor against a sitting President and former VP; Bush–VP against a northern governor; Reagan–California governor against sitting President and former Georgia governor; Carter–Georgia governor against sitting President; Ford–doesn’t count for this analysis. We basically have to go back 40 years to Nixon to find someone who either wasn’t a current or former governor who won. George H.W. Bush is the abberation in the pattern and he wasn’t a Senator either.
I don’t think so. I think if you took a poll of registered Pubs and Dems on whether they would vote for an unnamed black candidate – limiting the polling to whites who voted in either the 2000 or 2004 presidential primary – a large disparity would appear.