It will naturally happen one day, just like there will be a female president someday.
But the house favorite for the first female president is clear.
I was wondering who people would put money on as the first black Commander in Chief?
Watching Capitol Gang, I’d put money on Tenn. Congressman Harold Ford. I think he is a star in the making. If he can get into the Senate (hard for a DEM in the South), he will run for the top office someday. As a young man, he has time for the racial divide in the nation to narrow.
Powell had the best shot. I think if he had run in 2000 (as a DEM), he would have been President.
Also, to keep the debate up, I was wondering what factors a black candidate possess to be electable in a country that is still
racially divided.
I offer a few possibilities:
Wasn’t part of the Civil Rights Movement. May be tied to it indirectly, but rose to prominence through other career paths. I think middle America is uncomfortable with the civil rights movement despite believing in Equal Rights.
Moderate DEM. Someone who can appeal to the moderates in a general election.
A good speaker. This is my LEAST favorite, because I finding it VERY condescending when someone says a black man is “very well spoken.” (SEE Chris Rock’s comedy). Yet, I think it would be important. Even people with bigotry in their heart could say “He’s different.”
Not a Minister. I think this is true of all candidates, but I notice a large amount of black politicians are also ministers.
One I wonder about, and please note this question makes me uncomfortable: would Americans be more likely to vote for a light skinned black man over a darker skin black person?
I’m with DreadCthulhu. I think Condi would be a fine choice. Unfortunately, she is not married, and adding what to do about a single president would be just one too many pioneering categories for any American.
He/she’d have to be a million times more articulate than the fool we have now.
(People can slam Sharpton as much as they want, but no one can say he’s not a charismatic speaker. He doesn’t speak the King’s English, no, but he isn’t a mumbler or a stumbler, and he can make you nod your head in agreement even when you don’t want to, simply based on style and delivery. I listened to him during the debate the other day. If he were white and his past wasn’t so tainted, he’d have a much bigger following IMHO. He’s quite articulate, but not in the same way as, say, Colin Powell. Colin Powell is “white” articulate. Sharpton is more “black” with his delivery.)
This person would have to be more than moderate. They would have to be pretty damn conservative IMHO. I don’t think a black Dem will be the first. It would also help if this individual wasn’t seen as a friend of the black community. You know, someone who has more white friends than black, and doesn’t belong to any predominately black organizations. Someone like Ward Connerly comes to mind. If s/he were light-skinned (like Connerly), s/he could even get away with having a white spouse.
My hometown of Atlanta, GA has never known a mayor darker than a brown paper bag. Is Atlanta, GA a microcosm of the nation at large? Uh, I don’t know. But I’m more likely to lean towards the cynical view than the optimistic one.
If the black was a conservative republican who mostly shared the values that I hold, I would vote for him or her.
If, there were two candidates, of who I believed had equal qualifications and held similar beliefs, and one was black, and one white, I would probably vote for the black because I would like to see a black president, and a woman, and Latino, and so on and so on. But I wouldn’t vote for anybody simply because they were a minority or a woman though.
I pretty much agree with Monstro. Most likely a Republican, more on the conservative side, but much less so than Bush (needs to get some crossover Dem votes). It’s crazy, I know, but if the guy had light skin that would help. Someone basically like Powell. Especially someone with a military background. Connerly is not a particularly warm soul from what I’ve seen, and I think he’d have trouble making a connection with a lot of people. He’d need to get the governor’s job first, then make a run at the presidency.
I don’t know if Condi has what it takes for the top role. Maybe a good VP or senior cabinet member. If she were to run, I actually think being single might be a plus (for any female pres candidate). Again, this might be crazy, but I think men can see a woman more as a leader if she is not married (and especially if she doesn’t have children).
Harold Ford seems like a competent pol, but appears to be too much of a light weight for president (OK, no jokes about Bush:)).
Given our nations seeming unwillingness to elect legislators to the presidency, I think any of the notable black Congressmen would need to go thru the VP slot first.
Powell would have had it in '00 if he wanted it. There is no question there. Don’t know the kind of job he would have done. Probably a pretty good one.
Rice and Ford are the next chances. Rice, not yet, but maybe in 08.
They’re both electable. That’s a hell of a thing, when you think about it. Almost as big as Leiberman almost winning veep. Remember Ferraro and the stink that made?
We’ve come a long long way. Not all the way yet, but a long way.
There is too a question about Powell. Since he never declared, he never got subjected to the media dragnet of everything he ever said or did. He certainly never had to put forward positions of any real depth on a broad range of issues, positions that could be studied and challenged and debated. If he had, he’d have been just another candidate. Since he didn’t, he can keep this aura of competence and integrity that lets people read into him anything they want to read. That may be true of Dean right now, but it won’t last.
Powell and Rice have both destroyed their own political viability along with their personal credibility in the last 2 years, though. Ford need some seasoning still - along with the light skin and the makes-businessmen-comfortable image that have already been mentioned, he’ll need a stronger resume than a comparable white candidate would. That’s probably true of any African-American, or female or non-Christian, for that matter.
The first African-American US President will be nobody you’ve heard of already. That’s because s/he probably isn’t old enough to vote yet.
It’s unfortunate that this is how it will turn out to be (at least IMHO), but sometimes the world sucks.
Re Colin and Condi: in addition to their getting tarnished by Iraq, and being too liberal (by GOP standards) to win the GOP nomination, they’ve got a Bush problem. If GWB wins a term of his own in 2004, then Jeb’s his likely successor; they’ll both have to wait an awfully long time. If GWB goes down in flames next November, then some of that’s gonna rub off on those who legitimized his policies, and that’ll kill what aspirations they might’ve had.
Everyone says they would vote for Powell, but I’m skeptical that it would be that easy. Voters have a tendency of pledging their votes for minority candidates and then changing their minds at the last minute…like when they’re standing in the voting booth.
Also note that there are no black governors or senators (AFAIK). I think this indicates a relunctance of majority voters to elect blacks for high-power positions. I think a black candidate would have to at least have a governorship under his belt. Voters would bristle at the notion of putting a black in office who hadn’t proven himself, and I think that “proof” would have to be much more substantial than what a typical white candidate could get away with. Any appearance of “AA-in-the-White House” wouldn’t work.
(Just look at Condi. You can’t go five minutes talking to a conservative without them praising her for her awesome, super-natural powers.)
Seeing as how I was the one who mentioned his name, I’d like to know what you think I’m kidding about.
I think people who think Powell–or anyone else for that matter–would have an easy time being elected are deluding themselves.
Whoever it will be will probably be a Governor or Senator. I don’t think that it’ll be Powell (who’s passed it up a couple of times) or Rice (never been elected to anything, and she’s probably too much of a policy wonk for the public-at-large).
Out of the elected officials currently in office, I have three that have a good chance, but only if they get higher office: the aforementioned Harold Ford (if he becomes Gov. or Sen.), St. Sen Barack Omura (I’m almost certainly missspelling his name, this is if he becomes Sen. from Illinois), and J. Kenneth Blackwell, Ohio Secretary of State, and the probable next Republican candidate for Governor or a Senate opening there.
I also felt that H. Carl McCall might have had a chance, but the pasting he received in the New York Governor’s race last year eliminates him.
I think he or she would have to be a moderate to conservative Republican to get elected.
I think this is also true of a female president. If a woman or an African-American could get the Republican nomination (which would be enormously difficult), then I think they would waltz into the White House. Why? Because they get most of the Republican vote, plus the votes of anyone who just wants to see some history made. I think the latter people are much more likely to be Democrat/Independent than Republican.
I don’t think they will be a Republican. They can’t be a moderate, because moderates can’t win the primary. They also probably wouldn’t enjoy too much success as a far conservative. I think too many on the far right (and they vote regularly) would not want a black person as President no matter how much they agreed with him.
Alan Keyes was a good candidate, yet he got no traction whatsoever.
True enough. But it still is rather unfortunate (to say the least) that in this day and age, skin color is something we should factor in when deciding who could win. Can you imagine us doing that with white men and hair color?
I agree that the first black president will have to be a moderate conservative. Any more to the right of that and precious Democrat votes will be lost. Any more to the left and the Republicans will start to feel uneasy. They will also have to present themselves as “mainstream” as possible. That means the absence of any schooling at a historically black university, no ties to black organizations, no regular guest appearances on BET news, etc. Basically, they will have to be white people with tans. And like monstro said, their resumes will have to be extra impeccable. Rice would probably not even be considered if it wasn’t for the fact that she is Dr. Rice. Notice also that Powell is General Powell. Those titles, I’m afraid to say, are probably a redeeming quality in the eyes of subconscious racists.