On Thursday, Baseball Prospectus released the results of the 16th annual Internet Baseball Awards. This is notable because the awards are voted on primarily by BP’s readers, who are, themselves, primarily very well informed and math-savvy stat-heads. As a result, this is one of those rare cases in which an internet poll is (much) more accurate than its better-established analog counterpart (in this case the BBWAA, which is composed primarily of traditionalist reporters and journalists who, sadly, tend to prefer RBIs and Batting Average over OBP and SLG, and who usually are either ignorant of or outright hostile to tools such as VORP and WARP.
The results (rank - name - 1st place votes - total points; for more details click the link):
AL MVP
Alex Rodriguez 1354 19527
Magglio Ordonez 23 10831
David Ortiz 26 8245
Jorge Posada 6 5519
Vladimir Guerrero 6 5246
Curtis Granderson 6 4458
Carlos Pena 3 4311
C.C. Sabathia 2 3037
Victor Martinez 5 2668
Ichiro Suzuki 0 2601
Grady Sizemore 4 2271
Josh Beckett 4 1581
Mike Lowell 6 1405
Fausto Carmona 3 939
Johan Santana 0 529
NL MVP
Matt Holliday 407 11859
David Wright 299 9180
Jimmy Rollins 226 8349
Hanley Ramirez 128 6734
Prince Fielder 76 6476
Chase Utley 41 4639
Albert Pujols 25 4386
Jake Peavy 40 4024
Chipper Jones 16 3465
Miguel Cabrera 4 2544
Ryan Howard 1 1572
Brandon Webb 1 1105
Ryan Braun 1 923
Barry Bonds 4 646
Jose Reyes 1 552
AL Cy Young
C.C. Sabathia 819 10830
Josh Beckett 292 7439
Fausto Carmona 83 4574
John Lackey 27 3182
Johan Santana 43 2956
Erik Bedard 26 1594
Dan Haren 10 932
J.J. Putz 10 634
Chien-Ming Wang 2 356
Kelvim Escobar 2 262
Scott Kazmir 4 256
Jonathan Papelbon 0 168
Roy Halladay 4 167
Justin Verlander 2 149
Rafael Betancourt 1 73
NL Cy Young
Jake Peavy 1097 11585
Brandon Webb 87 7705
Brad Penny 1 2626
Roy Oswalt 0 1339
John Smoltz 1 1164
Cole Hamels 4 1124
Aaron Harang 3 999
Tim Hudson 2 894
Carlos Zambrano 3 644
Chris Young 2 558
Jeff Francis 1 451
Takashi Saito 0 239
Jose Valverde 0 209
Tom Gorzelanny 1 91
Matt Cain 1 79
AL Rookie of the Year
Dustin Pedroia 838 10145
Daisuke Matsuzaka 138 5457
Brian Bannister 57 2927
Jeremy Guthrie 66 2672
Hideki Okajima 16 2093
Delmon Young 34 1826
Joba Chamberlain 25 896
Joakim Soria 9 773
Reggie Willits 4 761
Alex Gordon 5 448
NL Rookie of the Year
Ryan Braun 666 9871
Troy Tulowitzki 487 9127
Hunter Pence 16 4210
Chris Young 8 1470
Tim Lincecum 7 1311
Josh Hamilton 2 751
James Loney 3 724
Yovani Gallardo 1 718
Micah Owings 2 428
Kevin Kouzmanoff 1 314
AL Manager of the Year
Eric Wedge 566 3686
Mike Scioscia 166 1917
Terry Francona 189 1792
Joe Torre 142 1446
Mike Hargrove 23 276
NL Manager of the Year
Clint Hurdle 339 2735
Bob Melvin 337 2490
Manny Acta 172 1332
Lou Piniella 114 1204
Charlie Manuel 78 1009
Thoughts?
Also, this poll being a Basebal Prospectus joint, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some questions about the nature and/or validity of the advanced baseball statistics that they champion. I’m probably not the most knowledgeable Doper on this subject, but if anyone has comments, questions, or criticisms about their approach, I’d be happy to field them.
Personally, I disagree with two of the winners. One is the NL Rookie of the Year. If BP’s fielding stats are to be believed, there was a huge difference between the quality of Ryan Braun’s glove and Troy Tulowitzki’s. According to them, Tulowitzki was about six games better defensively than Braun. That is, in this case, Tulowitzki’s defensive performance could be expected to be worth about three wins more than what you’d expect with an average defensive SS, while Braun cost his team about three games with his glove, relative to a league-average fielder at 3B. To bridge that gap, Braun would have to be in an entirely different class from Tulowitzki as a hitter, and he just isn’t that much better.
Admittedly, it is a lot harder to quantify defensive performance than offensive performance, and there are several good systems out there that judge individual defense, and they frequently disagree with each other. Nonetheless, I do think it’s fair to say that Troy Tulowitzki was one of the best-fielding regular Shortstops in baseball, while Ryan Braun was one of the worst-fielding regular Third Basemen. Judging by WARP3, which accounts for both offense and defense, it’s not even close: Braun was worth 4.4 wins over what a replacement level 3B would provide; Tulowitzki was worth 10.7 wins.
My bigger gripe is with the NL MVP. This may well be because I’m being blinded my loyalty to the Mets in general and David Wright inparticular, but I think that the people who voted for Matt Holliday are blinded by the fact that his team happened to make the postseason in a remarkable fashion. The Mets were right in the middle of their pennant race until the very last day, and even when the rest of the team went into the tank, Wright kept on raking. Offensively they were very close, but I think Wright comes out ahead when you consider that he plays in a pretty good pitcher’s ballpark, while Holliday plays in a very good hitter’s park.
Of course, Holliday is no slouch on defense (probably about as good at his position as Wright is at his). What sets them apart, however, is the fact that Wright plays a harder defensive postion, and plays it well. To be a good LF you simply must have a big bat; it’s part of the job description, because the position is relatively undemanding defensively. There’s a relative scarcity of good-hitting 3B. When comparing the merits of two or more hitters, you have to give extra consideration to players who adequately field those positions at which defense is relatively important, since the fact that they’re not clogging up LF, RF, or 1B means you have one more spot on your lineup for an unskilled defender who carries a great stick.
I voted for Braun and Holliday. Like most of the voters, I’m dazzled by big power numbers and believe that the potential to hit a big fly to make up for the error you just committed makes everything square. Braun did amazing things in a short season and I gave him the benefit of extrapolation when considering his numbers.
I ranked Wright 4th or 5th behind Hanley Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins and perhaps Fielder. Much of that had to do with the Mets’ ridiculous collapse. The idea that someone should be given an award in that context doesn’t jive with my belief system.