The draft is finished! Here’s a recap. (Sorry about how long this is, I go a little overboard)
This season, I thought 10-12 was the worst place to pick, seeing as how in average drafts players I liked were always taken outside of that area. A player may be a great pick at the beginning of round four, but not such a good one at the beginning of round three.
I ended up 12th. Last year I thought 5-8 was the worst place to draft, and if you check back at my analysis last year, I was just about 100% wrong. So, maybe I’ll be just as wrong this time and end up with a strong draft pulling up the rear. My strategy changed though, being 12th. I couldn’t wait for players to fall to me, and I couldn’t avoid potential (or in progress) position runs. I had to start position runs, or anticipate them. That’s really tough.
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Picks 1 and 2 - 12 and 13 overall:**
1.12 - Marshawn Lynch, RB (Buf)
I missed out on four of the five players I queued up for this spot, but I wasn’t really expecting any of them. I think Lynch is a good first rounder, but not a great one. He’ll get nearly every Bills’ carry, which is a tremendous value in the era of RB By Committee. I’m just not convinced he gets anything with that Bills’ offense being as bad as it is. If he repeats his 07 stats, I might be okay. I think I really need him to top 200 this season though. He’s the least interesting of all the first rounders.
2.01 - Ryan Grant, RB (GB)
Grant proved last season that he has talent, and like Lynch, he has no vulture to his carries or scores as of yet. Getting two RBs with no timeshare concerns is going to be a big boost to my team, even if I did get arguably the two worst pass catching RBs of the first 20 picks in a PPR league. Grant concerns me though. He’s injured, and he showed just how ineffective he can be when the defense focuses on him and not on the passing game. And by the way, that Favre guy isn’t chucking INTs for GB anymore, so maybe the defense isn’t so concerned with putting that eighth guy in the box. I originally intended to go RB/WR here, but seeing as how the WR pool was deep enough that I could get a legit #1 WR in the third round, I felt Grant was the best value here. If Grant continues what he did at the end of '07, I have an incredibly strong RB duo.
Picks 3 and 4 - 36 and 37 overall:
3.12 - Santonio Holmes, WR (Pit)
I like Santonio Holmes. I think he’s on the upswing, and improving on last year’s stats at all will make him a stud WR. Is 70 catches, 1100 yards and 8-10 TDs out of the question? I say it’s more likely than not, and that’s not much more than he did last year. And this year he’s returning punts too, which adds in a small amount of value. I would have preferred he be my #2, but I didn’t have many other options here. Chad Johnson is hurt and on any given play he’s done for the season (I know everyone is, but especially so for him). Jennings is too TD dependent, and Boldin is causing a stink that could land him on a team with a far worse passing situation.
4.01 - Brandon Marshall, WR (Den):
Marshall is suspended three games as of right now, and while that would normally deter me from drafting him, a couple things changed my mind. He’s very likely to have the suspension dropped to one game, or overturned, which I could completely negate by taking a quality third WR. He has tremendous upside, and Denver doesn’t figure to be very good, forcing them to pass more to keep up with their overrated defense. And he was the last WR, other than Oucho Cinco, to have a good chance of landing in the top 5 at the position. Great value here, and it solidifes my team. It seems to me that a core of Lynch, Grant, Holmes, and Marshall is a strong one to have. No true #1s, but possibly a lot of 1.5s.
Picks 5 and 6 - 60 and 61 overall:
6.12 - Calvin Johnson, WR (Det)
To mitigate the possible loss of Marshall, I took Johnson here as the best available WR. He had am extremely underrated rookie season, and he has done nothing but impress all preseason. He has top 10 potential, and to pick him up in the 6th/7th as a third WR is really great value.
7.01 - Jonathan Stewart, RB (Car):
Up until about a week ago, Stewart was a really popular choice for AP version 2008. Carolina loves to run, they run really well (and will do so better this season), and Stewart is the logical candidate for the scoring chances. I targeted him in every mock I did. And then he got too popular. He started going in the fourth or fifth, sometimes the third. I heard about his bad toe, and I forgot about him. I didn’t like this pick, because I like having a solid, dependable (if limited) RB as my third. I made this pick because I felt like the best available RBs would be gone before I got to pick again, and I needed another top quality player. Stewart isn’t in the best situation, but he has the most upside of the remaining guys.
Picks 7 and 8 - 84 and 85 overall:
7.12 - Matt Schaub, QB (Hou)
I still don’t have a QB at this point, and I’ve drafted two backups over a starter at an important spot. With this league’s scoring rules, QBs are a little less important than normal, so I decided to wait until later. I would have kept waiting if Garrard, Cutler, and Bulger didn’t go in this round. I couldn’t afford to wait anymore, so I nabbed one of the few QBs I really liked heading into the draft. Here’s hoping Andre Johnson stays healthy! At this point I already know who my next QB will be, and I’m taking a calculated gamble on second and third rate QBs.
8.01 - LenDale White, RB (Ten)
I tried so hard to pass up on this pick, but I couldn’t. LenDale White is a starting RB, on a run-run-run-first team, that runs really effectively. Drafting him in the eighth round is really amazing value. He makes my selection of Stewart a lot less risky by comparison, even if Chris Johnson is probably going to split carries 50/50 at worst, by season’s end. All LenDale has to do is repeat 07, and I might have gotten the steal of the draft. No other RB on the board has both the potential for a 1200yd 8TD season AND the opportunity to do it. I don’t think he gets it, but 900 and 6 at this spot is excellent.
Picks 9 and 10 - 108 and 109 overall:
9.12 - Patrick Crayton, WR (Dal)
Something weird started happening at this point in the draft. Every guy I targeted was getting selected as soon as I queued them, even if they were long reaches. I decided to just take who I wanted and be damned if it was a round or two early. Realizing that I had just Holmes, Marshall, and Calvin Megatron Johnson as my WRs, I needed another one. I tend to prefer players with opportunity over those with upside, so Crayton was pretty obvious here.
I don’t understand what’s going on with Crayton and fantasy owners. He was good last season, and now that Glenn is gone, he has the opportunity in one of the best passing offenses in the league. The mysterious lack of love extends into the real NFL, as the 'Boys have been trying to trade for a #2 WR all preseason. Maybe they know something I don’t?
10.01 - Jason Campbell, QB (Was)
I was reaching here, but I couldn’t afford to miss out. I wanted Campbell since the first mock I did, and have gotten him every time. He has been brilliant in the preseason, looking better than probably any other QB. With a new passing offense in Washington, I expect really big things from Campbell. He’s my sleeper this season, I expect a top 8 finish from him barring injury.
Picks 11 and 12 - 132 and 133 overall:
11.12 - L.J. Smith, TE (Phi)
Um… I don’t have a TE? Every single one I liked is gone? What happened? I took LJ here because I didn’t expect Keller to last to my next pick. I take who I want now, remember?
L.J. is a gifted receiver. If not for injuries (to he and McNabb), he would be a top 6 TE by now. With Curtis and Brown hurting, and the passing game in full swing, Smith is really the only viable option McNabb has. But asking for a healthy season from Smith is kinda stupid. I’m stupid, what can I say?
12.01 - Chris Perry, RB (Cin)
Again, a starting RB in the NFL is worth something. To get a starter, and one as talented as Perry, in the 12th is a boon. He’s going to get hurt, and lose carries to Watson, but he’s a deep bench player. I lose nothing here and have everything to gain. Perry has top twenty talent. He stays healthy and he’s a legit starter on a fantasy team.
Picks 13 and 14 - 156 and 157 overall:
13.12 - Philadelphia, Def/ST
Homer time! Philly wasn’t a good fantasy start last season, despite being a top ranked defense all season long. The reason is that they failed miserably to get turnovers, and they have had possibly the worst return game in the league over the last 5 years. With Asante Samuel in town, the INTs should go up, a lot. With DeSean Jackson hopefully not muffing kicks and costing Philadelphia games against teams they had beat, the return game should be markedly better. They might even score a TD! Actually, Jackson is an interesting player… I might keep him in mind…
14.01 - DeSean Jackson, WR (Phi)
… for about ten seconds. Yeah, Jackson has looked great. Yeah, he’s returning kicks as well. Still, I don’t expect much out of him. Curtis is out for 6-8 and Brown is ineffective and hurting, and Jackson STILL can’t start? Really? The only hope for him is later on in the season as he develops and matures, but as soon as he does, Curtis will come back and take his targets. Lots of upside here though, and I always fall prey to an enticing Eagles WR, and every year they burn me. I’ve seen Jackson go as high as the fourth round, by the way. Stupid.
Pick 15 - 180 overall:
15.12 - Mason Crosby, K (GB)
Don’t take kickers before the final round. Ever. Good offense, check. Questionable scoring options, check. Indoor field? Eh, fuck it, two out of three isn’t bad. Won’t matter even if I got the worst kicker in the league.
I look back at this draft and I think I did pretty well, considering I was last in the draft. But this might be because I got a lot of players I like this season, so I see it more positively. So I checked the Yahoo projections for each team and found that mine is, by far, the worst. I’m questionable at QB, relyiing on breakouts years by both candidates. I have two strong RBs, but both have questions and doubts. I have two strong WRs, and my depth is excellent (the best I’ve ever drafted). But I have no #1s, anywhere on the roster. I don’t have a single player, at any position, that is in the top tier of that position. I think that unless my entire team exceeds expectations (never happened in the history of man), I will fall flat on my face for it. I’ve never drafted a more well rounded team, but in order for me to win, I need my entire team to “break out,” something I didn’t consider during the draft. We’ll see if it works out!
). Especially now that so many sites include real-time stats for free.