What are McCain's chances

[Jolly Roger]

bear with me. I'm in a hotel. All of my belongings and my car are being shipped to NC...I won't see any of them for weeks if not a month. My wife, three cats and I have to fly out monday morning. we're all going to be stressed, angry, jet lagged and tired on Nov. 4th.

So I've been trying to keep cool....watching CNN on TV. (the wife and cats are staying with a friend that lives across the street from where I am staying...the thought is I'd be happier on my own for a night or two than in an apartment with 4 crying cats...our friend has one...and two women)

And all I hear is how McCain is going to turn it around. How he has a good chance at still winning. Am i reading the right news or misinterpreting the polls i see or anything? Are those 1 in 7 undecided voters that big of a boost? CNN's poll online last time I checked would make it impossible for McCain to win even if he got all of the states leaning towards him. Sure, that isn't an exact science, and theres a chance he could win, but from where I'm standing it looks like he has maybe a 25% chance. I've already voted and so has my wife via absentee ballot. She was leaning towards McCain until she saw Palin. I'm glad that she did and changed her mind and voted for Obama. I literally feel like i want to vomit when I hear Palin speak. Now I wonder if McCain pulls a Dewey on this...what do you all think?

[Captain Carrot]

Do remember that when Truman won, everybody had stopped polling in September, and their polls weren't very accurate anyway. Neither of those is the case today. McCain is forked.

[Jolly Roger]

Originally Posted by Captain Carrot

Do remember that when Truman won, everybody had stopped polling in September, and their polls weren't very accurate anyway. Neither of those is the case today. McCain is forked.

I don't remember when Truman won...I wasn't even born yet!

But i see your point. I've just seen so many talking heads on TV this last night and morning and they keep saying "Mccain can still take Pennsylvania, blahblahblah" and "Ohio, yeah, McCain will win Ohio! Blahblahblah". (understand that I haven't seen a TV at all for ten days or so since my stuff shipped so I've been junk fooding it)

I think the latest CNN poll has Mccain at 160 electoral votes tops.

[Discordia]

He needs divine intervention to win.

The talking heads just want people to watch their shows, they're full of shit.

[John Mace]

I don't know which talking heads you're listening to, but even the ones I see on FoxNews are saying McCain has little to no chance of winning. You might be hearing some Republican strategists talking up a McCain upset, but that's another matter.

[Bartman]

fivethiryeight.com is listing his chances at 2.8%. And I think that is certainly in the neighborhood. I can see a path to victory for McCain even at this stage, but it is extremely difficult.

Right now it is 4th down with 20 to go. McCain is down by two on his own 40 yard line with 3 seconds to go and has no time outs. He needs to get 30 yards to get his kicker in range, he needs the Obama team to commit a foul to stop the clock, and then he needs a really good kick from his kicker who evidently just broke her leg in a wardrobe malfunction. In short barring a miracle that will be discussed for decades to come... it aint happening.

[Clothahump]

Obama's entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He's betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he's an empty suit who espouses Marxism, and simply be captivated by the "ooohhh....shiny" factor.

Sadly, this election year, I feel that the braindead will outnumber the thinkers and Obama will be elected. I hope I am wrong, but I fear that I won't be.

[Jolly Roger]

Originally Posted by Clothahump

Obama's entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He's betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he's an empty suit who espouses Marxism, and simply be captivated by the "ooohhh....shiny" factor.

Sadly, this election year, I feel that the braindead will outnumber the thinkers and Obama will be elected. I hope I am wrong, but I fear that I won't be.

You'll excuse me if I disagree. IMO you'd have to braindead to vote for McCain who really hasn't offered anything new and has the bonus points of picking the completely unqualified Palin for VP.

"Empty Suit" is a better description for McCain, and its not an "ooooh shiny" feeling that makes me vote for Obama. Sadly I'm afraid that too many people are willing to base their votes for McCain on the mudsling he's done on Obama. After all, he and his cronies haven't said anything but mudslinging monkey poo on Obama have they?

[Moriarty]

Originally Posted by Clothahump

Obama's entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He's betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he's an empty suit who espouses Marxism, and simply be captivated by the "ooohhh....shiny" factor.

Sadly, this election year, I feel that the braindead will outnumber the thinkers and Obama will be elected. I hope I am wrong, but I fear that I won't be.

Cite regarding the fact that Obama "espouses Marxism". Please don't give me a link to someone saying Obama espouses Marxism. Instead, I'm asking for a specific example of Obama actually espousing Marxism. I eagerly await your response, as my research skills have failed me.

[Jophiel]

A few days ago, people were saying that McCain was down by 6 and would need to make up a point a day to break even. Now, three days out, McCain is still down by 6 (6.4 according to RCP) and would need to make up 2 points a day to break even.

That's just nationally, of course.

[BJMoose]

Snowball.

Hell.


Any questions?

[Lightnin']

Originally Posted by Clothahump

Obama's entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He's betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he's an empty suit who espouses Marxism, and simply be captivated by the "ooohhh....shiny" factor.

Sadly, this election year, I feel that the braindead will outnumber the thinkers and Obama will be elected. I hope I am wrong, but I fear that I won't be.

Congratulations. You just insulted most of your fellow Dopers, by insinuating that we're "stupid" and "braindead".

Yeah, that'll get us to vote for your candidate.

[susan]

I for one welcome our shiny Marxist overlords. Seriously. Because our sanctimonious capitalist overlords have treated us with such terrific contempt.

[Revtim]

Originally Posted by Jolly Roger

And all I hear is how McCain is going to turn it around. How he has a good chance at still winning.

You are hearing that directly or indirectly from McCain's campaign, likely. Of course he can't say there's almost no chance of winning, because that will turn it into absolutely no chance of winning. People don't vote for pessimism, even if it's just realism.

[Bryan Ekers]

Originally Posted by Clothahump

Obama's entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He's betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he's an empty suit who espouses Marxism, and simply be captivated by the "ooohhh....shiny" factor.

Sadly, this election year, I feel that the braindead will outnumber the thinkers and Obama will be elected. I hope I am wrong, but I fear that I won't be.

Well, you'll have the next four years to writhe in agony as America crumbles, but this week, what can McCain do to improve his chances?

[jimmmy]

I’ll what if. (full disclosure : I will vote for Obama and anticipate that he will win)

Really at this point it looks like the most realistic “what if” is for McCain to win Ohio AND Pennsylvania. I would submit that McCain knows that and has been almost exclusively focusing his time and money and what star power he can muster on these two states in the end game. The Washington Post has a front page story today on this strategy.

How realistic is this chance?

According to polls taken Tuesday/Weds Obama leads McCain by 10ish points in Pennsylvania (53%-43% with 7% undecided pretty much trending Obama over the past week). Both Ed Rendell and Murtha have stated that the polls are wrong and PA is closer than the polls indicate.

In Ohio Obama leads by 51-47% with 3ish percentage undecided and a 3.5% margin or error - although the number are consistent, it is not insane to think it looks better for McCain here than Pennsylvania. Again he needs them both in this scenerio.

Still, even with these two the Straight Talk Express still needs some combo or surprise come from behind wins in the below:

Florida where Obama leads by ~3.5%

North Carolina Obama leads by ~3ish%

Virginia Obama leads by ~5ish%

Colorado Obama leads by ~7ish%

Iowa Obama leads by 13% (with about 12% still undecided)

While holding on to narrow leads in

Missouri McCain leads by ~2ish%

Indiana McCain leads by ~2ish%

Small fry: MT Mccain leads by 3, ND Obama leads by 1

The Aunt story has to explode, or people freak if OBL endorses Obama are also scenarios that could change things.

Ultimately though IMHO the real way that McCain might win is that the models overestimate African American, new voter and youth turn out. If that happens all these numbers are gibberish. That seems a thin reed to hang your hopes on - but in a nontraditional election I can't claim that it is insane to hope that.

[Quartz]

Short of Obama having a Stimson moment, methinks McCain's toast.

[Fish]

Here's the situation according to CNN:

Obama has: HI, WA, OR, CA, NV, CO, NM, MN, IA, WI, MI, PA, VA, MD, DC, DE, NJ, CT, NY, VT, NH, ME, RI, and MA for 291 EV.

Tossup states: ND, MO, IN, OH, NC, FL

McCain has: ID, UT, MT, WY, AZ, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, AR, MS, AL, TN, KY, GA, SC, and WV for 160 EV.

John McCain would need 270 to win — a 269-269 tie would send the thing into Congress, which doesn't favor him at the moment. In order to pull off the upset, McCain needs every swing state listed above (ND, MO, IN, OH, NC, FL) to give him 247. Then he needs 23 more EV in some combination from elsewhere. The big states worth 23 EV aren't like to flip for McCain (IL, CA, NY). He would have to win both PA and VA in order to squeak by.

How likely is that? Well ... not very. McCain is 8 points behind in PA, 8 points behind in VA, and 4 points behind in OH. In addition, the states CNN lists as under McCain's wing aren't very solid; some of them could tip Obama's direction depending on the turnout of African-American, Hispanic, and young voters. Particularly vulnerable are MT, AZ, and GA. Those 3 states together are the equivalent of Florida's EV count — and if McCain can't hold MT, AZ and GA, then FL won't help him.

To make matters worse, McCain doesn't have many volunteers on the ground getting out the vote, and Obama does. McCain is counting on television ads to swing several points in multiple states, and GOP strategists don't think that TV is worth more than maybe a single point. Meanwhile, Obama has a well-organized Get-Out-The-Vote program, which may be worth 2-3 points in his favor, over and above his existing lead.

If you ask me, a layperson, McCain's got about 1 chance in 30 of not getting shellacked, and even that 1 chance he's got would have to be a squeaker.

[Bryan Ekers]

Originally Posted by Quartz

Short of Obama having a Stimson moment, methinks McCain's toast.

I think you mean Stillson, and I agree.

[wmfellows]

Originally Posted by Clothahump

Obama's entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He's betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he's an empty suit who espouses Marxism, and simply be captivated by the "ooohhh....shiny" factor.

Mate, it's a sad refrain when one blames the fact your man is getting whacked on "the stupidity" of the electorate. Sad when the Left does it. Sad when the Right does it. And Marxism? Good lord, you don't have any idea about Marxism if you find this guy Marxist (well perhaps a colouring book for five year old analysts version of Marxism).

Sadly, this election year, I feel that the braindead will outnumber the thinkers and Obama will be elected. I hope I am wrong, but I fear that I won't be.

Ironic, this whack, since you just accused the fellow of Marxism, which anyone familiar with actual live Marxism in all its loathsomeness, has to laugh at. It certainly doesn't imply you're a "thinker." Rendering your snideness ... ironic.

Frankly, after the long period of incompetence by the Bush Administration, it's a good thing to have the Republicans lose, as one should not reward incompetence with another mandate. At least normally speaking the non-brain dead are against that. Helped the Tories out, being taken to the woodshed. Hopefully Obama is your Blair or something reasonably similar.

[elucidator]

McCain has one serious advantage, and he ought to be ashamed of it. A large proportion of Obama voters live in disadvantaged districts, polling wise. They're going to have to put in some serious time in line in order to vote, a problem their more advantaged fellow citizens do not have to face. Our voting "system" favors the comfortable, and that favors McCain.

That, and the much vaunted "youth vote" could flake out again, as it has before.

Arrayed against this are intangibles such as enthusiasm, which is Obama's strong suit but impossible to measure. My gut is that this enthusiasm is huge, and we're looking at a full-scale massacree, a prospect I face with calm aplomb.

[Rolken]

If anything I think the 538 numbers overestimate McCain's chances. To the best of my knowledge, his numbers are not taking into account the demographics of early voting where they are known, and while they may not be an accurate predictor of how people will vote on Nov 4, the inflated black turnout in particular certainly seems to indicate that McCain will at least need to perform better on Nov 4 than polls alone would indicate in order to win states like Georgia, because there's already an imbalance in Obama's favor locked into the voting.

Originally Posted by Clothahump

Obama's entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He's betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he's an empty suit who espouses Marxism, and simply be captivated by the "ooohhh....shiny" factor.

If you applied the same critical examination to your own side, you'd find that rhetoric that doesn't quite match reality is a common refrain. Exhibit A from McCain is his insistence that he'll eliminate the federal deficit by eliminating earmarks while cutting taxes, which is simply not credible. The fact is that most people don't have the time or will to do a lot of deep thinking about the presidential campaign, and so the way each side presents itself is a huge part of how voters make their decisions. To be selectively offended that the other side caters to that reality is intellectually dishonest.

[Jolly Roger]

Originally Posted by Rolken

If anything I think the 538 numbers overestimate McCain's chances. To the best of my knowledge, his numbers are not taking into account the demographics of early voting where they are known, and while they may not be an accurate predictor of how people will vote on Nov 4, the inflated black turnout in particular certainly seems to indicate that McCain will at least need to perform better on Nov 4 than polls alone would indicate in order to win states like Georgia, because there's already an imbalance in Obama's favor locked into the voting.



If you applied the same critical examination to your own side, you'd find that rhetoric that doesn't quite match reality is a common refrain. Exhibit A from McCain is his insistence that he'll eliminate the federal deficit by eliminating earmarks while cutting taxes, which is simply not credible. The fact is that most people don't have the time or will to do a lot of deep thinking about the presidential campaign, and so the way each side presents itself is a huge part of how voters make their decisions. To be selectively offended that the other side caters to that reality is intellectually dishonest.

I don't worry too much about the die hard right wingers here. Since they'll follow the goosestep of the party line no matter how silly it is, why would I want to bother? Dishonesty is the currency they use. They sold Iraq to us on it.

[elucidator]

Shit, I completely forgot about all the Marxism! I can't even count the number of times Obama has referenced "the dictatorship of the proletariat" on the stump! Good catch, Clothahump!

[Icerigger]

Drudge is now screaming McCain is in the lead. I don't want it to be true but I have a terrible feeling "fruit fly" Palin is going to be the next VP. I just have this vision of Limbaugh and Hannity, "see I told you so all the elite and moderates were wrong, the real Americans prevailed". People supporting Obama have been too confident, I hope I'm wrong but I think when it comes down to the wire the majority are not going to vote form a liberal black man for president.

[GIGObuster]

As mentioned in a different thread, Drudge is most likely pulling that lead out of his ass.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/index.html

[sidle]

Right now it is 4th down with 20 to go. McCain is down by two on his own 40 yard line with 3 seconds to go and has no time outs. He needs to get 30 yards to get his kicker in range, he needs the Obama team to commit a foul to stop the clock, and then he needs a really good kick from his kicker who evidently just broke her leg in a wardrobe malfunction. In short barring a miracle that will be discussed for decades to come... it aint happening.

Thank you, Bartman. Shouldn't be rocket science, but I'm having an awfully hard time here wrapping my head around his chances. This analogy helped me a lot.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Clothahump

Obama's entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He's betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he's an empty suit who espouses Marxism . . .

He doesn't. If anything, he is too much of an economic libertarian; see here. Even Bill Kristol, on The Daily Show Thursday, admitted he expects Obama to be an ordinary centrist-liberal president.

[TWDuke]

Originally Posted by elucidator

Shit, I completely forgot about all the Marxism! I can't even count the number of times Obama has referenced "the dictatorship of the proletariat" on the stump! Good catch, Clothahump!

Don't forget the "empty suit" business. If all we had to base our opinions on were the speeches, the interviews, the debates, and the interactions with ordinary citizens, we might think that Obama is the candidate with greater intelligence and deeper understanding of the issues. Thank goodness we have Clothahump's parrotlike repetition of talking points to keep us straight.

[Polerius]

Originally Posted by Clothahump

Obama's entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace.

It's funny that Republicans whine (and whine and whine) that liberals are "elitists" for making such statements, and when the election isn't going their way, they suddenly "discover" that the American voting populace is stupid.

The fact is that Republicans are just as "elitist" and "snobbish" towards their political opponents and the American voting populace in general, but
a) they haven't had the chance/desire to express their disdain for the average voter in recent years, because they were winning elections
b) the "elitist" label has successfully stuck onto liberals, because, in fact the average voter is indeed too stupid to see that both sides are equal offenders.

[Polerius]

Originally Posted by Jolly Roger

Sure, that isn't an exact science, and theres a chance he could win, but from where I'm standing it looks like he has maybe a 25% chance.

By my calculations, based on state poll results from electoral-vote.com, Obama has, at least a 97% chance of winning.

FYI, below are my calculations for all previous dates, going back to the beginning of September. I use a simpler method than the one on fivethiryeight.com, but I have found over the past several weeks that our estimates are close to each other.

You can see that things looked pretty bad for Obama after the Republican National Convention and the selection of Sarah Palin (with the worst date being around mid-September), and then started picking up again in late September (after the Katie Couric interviews)

Probability of an Obama win:

    Date  | Conservative |   Moderate  |  Aggressive 
          |   Estimate   |   Estimate  |   Estimate 
   ----------------------------------------------------
    Nov01 |     97.1%    |    99.2%    |    100.0%
    Oct30 |     97.1%    |    99.2%    |    100.0%
    Oct28 |     98.1%    |    99.3%    |    100.0%
    Oct26 |     96.8%    |    99.2%    |    100.0%
    Oct24 |     97.0%    |    99.2%    |    100.0%
    Oct22 |     95.1%    |    98.8%    |    99.9%
    Oct20 |     93.7%    |    99.1%    |    100.0%
    Oct18 |     92.6%    |    98.3%    |    99.8%
    Oct16 |     82.9%    |    96.9%    |    99.8%
    Oct14 |     77.6%    |    94.9%    |    99.7%
    Oct12 |     74.6%    |    92.6%    |    99.6%
    Oct10 |     74.1%    |    91.9%    |    99.4%
    Oct08 |     78.0%    |    91.7%    |    98.4%
    Oct06 |     71.1%    |    85.5%    |    95.9%
    Oct04 |     69.9%    |    83.0%    |    92.2%
    Oct02 |     67.6%    |    82.1%    |    93.0%
    Sep30 |     50.5%    |    63.2%    |    84.2%
    Sep28 |     49.1%    |    63.6%    |    82.1%
    Sep26 |     49.9%    |    66.9%    |    84.9%
    Sep24 |     41.2%    |    57.1%    |    73.1%
    Sep22 |     35.0%    |    50.7%    |    65.5%
    Sep20 |     33.3%    |    47.1%    |    64.2%
    Sep18 |     29.4%    |    37.2%    |    43.6%
    Sep16 |     32.7%    |    36.9%    |    30.4%
    Sep14 |     33.9%    |    40.7%    |    45.3%
    Sep12 |     36.9%    |    46.6%    |    55.5%
    Sep10 |     43.2%    |    54.6%    |    65.0%
    Sep08 |     50.2%    |    65.5%    |    84.9%
    Sep06 |     50.2%    |    65.5%    |    84.9%
    Sep04 |     51.1%    |    66.3%    |    84.7%
    Sep02 |     48.3%    |    61.0%    |    79.1%

[vison]

It's really hard to live my daily life with my fingers crossed. Thank heaven it's only a couple more days!!!

[Fish]

I can't imagine what it must be like for non-Americans. I almost can't bear the tension of waiting to find out, but at least I got a vote!

[Knorf]

Originally Posted by wmfellows

And Marxism? Good lord, you don't have any idea about Marxism if you find this guy Marxist (well perhaps a colouring book for five year old analysts version of Marxism).

Not even that.

Really, calling Obama a Marxist is staggeringly feeble. I'm trying to restrain my language since this isn't the Pit, but ...

Really. Clothahump, get a grip. If you have a real argument, let's hear it.

Others mentioned a great point: how can anyone who has organized such a fantastic campaign and faced such relentless criticism in the press with equanimity be an "empty suit."

[RickJay]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

He doesn't. If anything, he is too much of an economic libertarian;

Oh, come on. There is not a shred on evidence in that entire article that Obama is an "economic libertarian." And that's coming from a columnist who makes you look like Ayn Rand.

[Merkwurdigliebe]

Originally Posted by Clothahump

Obama's entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He's betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he's an empty suit who espouses Marxism, and simply be captivated by the "ooohhh....shiny" factor.

Do you know what Marxim means?

[vison]

Originally Posted by Merkwurdigliebe

Do you know what Marxim means?

I would guess he doesn't. Just a guess, but I suspect I'm right.

I think some people think thusly: it's not Marxism when the government gives Rich Capitalists almost a trillion dollars but it's Marxism when a presidential candidate talks about making things better for, you know, poor people.

But then, a discouraging thought pops into my poor old grey head: Obama voted for the bailout, too.

So now, with my head going wugga wugga, I withdraw.


(But I'm still an Obama fangirl.)

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by RickJay

Oh, come on. There is not a shred on evidence in that entire article that Obama is an "economic libertarian." And that's coming from a columnist who makes you look like Ayn Rand.

His leading economic advisors as Chicago-School, Friedrich von Hayek's and Milton Friedman's school of thought in economics. That's what the article is about.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Merkwurdigliebe

Do you know what Marxim means?

It's a Communist men's magazine.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Knorf

Really, calling Obama a Marxist is staggeringly feeble.

It's a meme propagating virally throughout cyberspace nevertheless.

[RickJay]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

His leading economic advisors as Chicago-School, Friedrich von Hayek's and Milton Friedman's school of thought in economics. That's what the article is about.

I assume what you meant to type there was that "His leading advisors are advocates of..." or some such thing. But what you said was that BARACK OBAMA was too much of an economic libertarian, not some people who've consulted with him. The fact that Obama may hire as advisors some Chicago economists - and you know as well as I do he also has economic advisors who are not Freidman-school economists - does not make Barack Obama a libertarian, as even a cursory glance at his platform proves. Unless you're saying his entire (obviously centrist) economic platform is a lie, and the man's running the most dishonest Presidential campaign since the 19th century, where's the evidence Obama's "too libertarian"?

He might be "Too libertarian" if you're a really extreme socialist - like, I dunno, Naomi Klein, to name one. For all her bluster, her entire case that Obama is an "Economic libertarian" is that Austan Goolsbee is one of his advisors. And by her own admission, he's, um, not actually really extreme in his views.

Look at this paragraph:

Originally Posted by Naomi Klein

Another of Obama's Chicago fans is 39-year-old billionaire Kenneth Griffin, CEO of the hedge fund Citadel Investment Group. Griffin, who gave the maximum allowable donation to Obama, is something of a poster boy for an unbalanced economy. He got married at Versailles and had the after-party at Marie Antoinette's vacation spot (Cirque du Soleil performed)--and he is one of the staunchest opponents of closing the hedge-fund tax loophole. While Obama talks about toughening trade rules with China, Griffin has been bending the few barriers that do exist. Despite sanctions prohibiting the sale of police equipment to China, Citadel has been pouring money into controversial China-based security companies that are putting the local population under unprecedented levels of surveillance.

Read that carefully. Klein uses about a hundred words here to say "A rich guy gave Obama's campaign a donation." Go ahead, read it again; that is the entire connection between Kenneth Griffin and Barack Obama. There is no evidence here that Griffin is an advisor to Obama, or that he influences Obama in any way, or that Obama follows Griffin's advice, and in fact there's no evidence Griffin is an "Economic libertarian." It's just a rich guy donated to Obama's campaign the "maximum allowable donation," which is, of course, a miniscule drop in the Obama bucket. Griffin allegedly also did some ethnically questionable things - none of which have anything to do with Senator Barack Obama. So if I can find a communist who donated to Obama, is he a Communist, too?

I mean, you don't take this shit seriously, do you? That's atrocious journalism.

[elucidator]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

It's a Communist men's magazine.

The very latest Albanian men's fashion. Bulgarian sex toys. Pictures of sturdy Ukranian women of the Riveters and Steelworkers Collective.

[Bryan Ekers]

Originally Posted by elucidator

The very latest Albanian men's fashion. Bulgarian sex toys. Pictures of sturdy Ukranian women of the Riveters and Steelworkers Collective.

And the latest tractor upgrades your farming collective simply must requisition from the central committee.

[Frostillicus]

Originally Posted by Clothahump

Obama's entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace.

You misspelled "McCain", and quite badly, by the way.

[Elendil's Heir]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

It's a Communist men's magazine.

For the win!

McCain could still eke out a victory, but to do so he would have to fire up the Republican base far more than he has to date AND appeal to a whole lot of undecideds who have thus far been leery of him AND pull away several by-all-estimates safe Obama states, all within the next three days. I just don't see it happening.

[Measure for Measure]

Cell phones. Bias from nonresponse rates. Oh, and it will be raining on Nov 4, and rain favors Republicans.

Does anybody know the predictive power of polls immediately preceding the election? There must be some data from 2004, 2006.

ETA: FWIW, Intrade puts McCain's chances at 13%.

[foolsguinea]

Originally Posted by Clothahump

Obama's entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He's betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he's an empty suit who espouses Marxism, and simply be captivated by the "ooohhh....shiny" factor.

Sadly, this election year, I feel that the braindead will outnumber the thinkers and Obama will be elected. I hope I am wrong, but I fear that I won't be.

Originally Posted by Jolly Roger

You'll excuse me if I disagree. IMO you'd have to braindead to vote for McCain who really hasn't offered anything new and has the bonus points of picking the completely unqualified Palin for VP.

"Empty Suit" is a better description for McCain, and its not an "ooooh shiny" feeling that makes me vote for Obama. Sadly I'm afraid that too many people are willing to base their votes for McCain on the mudsling he's done on Obama. After all, he and his cronies haven't said anything but mudslinging monkey poo on Obama have they?

They're both somewhat credible candidates. I have serious problems with both of them.

As a conservationist & as someone who thinks Reaganomics has utterly failed to deliver, I won't vote for a Reaganite this year. The Navy apparently deemed Mac unfit for command a long time ago. To me, the cool-tempered unknown is preferable to the known hothead. But others may see it differently, & that's fine.

But a lot of venom is being spewed by supporters who are less centrist & accommodating than the candidates themselves. There's a lot of patronage bound in the job; of course the parties will get nasty.

[Jolly Roger]

Originally Posted by foolsguinea

They're both somewhat credible candidates. I have serious problems with both of them.

I will agree with that. McCain has been in politics long enough that I don't think anyone can say he is unfit to be president. Except:

I will admit, his age bothers me, as well as his health. This would be less of a concern if he had a better VP pick. McCain could say everything I want to hear in a candidate but i would never vote for him if it put Palin anywhere near the WH. I don't agree with McCain's policies either, and I was really disgusted with the mudslinging he did. Obama said in a speech (paraphrasing here) that no one knows what McCain would do about some of the things he says he wants to do because he's always talking about ME (Me being Obama). I felt that way a long time before Mr. Obama said that. I would see Obama lay out plans in explain what he thought was the way to go. All McCain said was Mudslinging stuff and "I know how to do this!". He never really told me HOW he planned on doing it.

I've learned more about McCain's plans FROM Obama. And it wasn't mudslinging, even though I'm sure hardcore McCain/Palin voters will claim that it was.

As a conservationist & as someone who thinks Reaganomics has utterly failed to deliver, I won't vote for a Reaganite this year. The Navy apparently deemed Mac unfit for command a long time ago. To me, the cool-tempered unknown is preferable to the known hothead. But others may see it differently, & that's fine.

I get the feeling that a lot of people voting for McCain are only doing it to vote against Obama, not because they really think McCain is the best choice. Now I will admit, thats my PERSONAL feeling. I surely hope I'm wrong in that feeling. One thing that I am bewildered by is when the whole socialist tag McCain tries to paint on Obama. I guess its just my own feeling, but if I made over $200,000 a year paying a bit more taxes wouldn't be so bad, if its helping lower the burden on people less fortunate. Seriously, anyone making that much isn't going to go broke or lose their house or not be able to afford to send their kids to school with a slight increase in their taxes. Its not a sophisticated opinion I'll admit, but people that think that its unfair for their taxes to go up a bit when they make 200 grand a year are being a bit selfish.

I think we need to turn this country around. We've lost so much in the last 8 years. We're becoming a laughing stock. (I am leaving this post, but its a NATO assignment and trust me, the other nations want to like us, but they have lost respect for us. Bush has managed to put a dunce cap on Uncle Sam. I know that a lot of people think "it doesn't matter what furriners think", but i disagree....and a lot of them...hell, all of the ones I've met, and they ain't joes off of the street but officials and officers from NATO countries....think Obama would restore their faith in the USA.) I don't want to sidetrack the thread on that, but you know what, I CARE what the rest of the world thinks of us, even if I don't base my vote on it. Since I have to deal with and work with these other countries in some capacity its important to me.

But a lot of venom is being spewed by supporters who are less centrist & accommodating than the candidates themselves. There's a lot of patronage bound in the job; of course the parties will get nasty.

As corny as it is, that makes me think of something Cmdr. Sinclair on the TV show Babylon Five said. Paraphrasing, he said that if you make someone mad and fight them you get to see the real person. Mccain took his losses and began smearing Obama. Obama did not retaliate with smears. he didn't make stuff up or bring up any shady dealings about Mccain. And lets be for real...JMcC knew damn well that the Ayers thing was BS. But he hammered on it, hoping to scare people into thinking Obama was a terrorist. So did Palin...she's not as intelligent as Obama and her own career would be ripe for throwing some mud on....and she must have at least common sense to know what she was saying was poopoo. Clothahump's post is what I expect from hard core right wingers. Insult your opponent. You know, because we'd have to be just plain stupid to think Obama might be a better president, and hey, you might as well insult the people that think that, even if the thread wasn't about who you prefer.

So yes, theres patronage, fanboiism, koolaid being ingested on BOTH sides. But from where I sit obama seems to be the one rising above it, and displaying a presidential appearance.

Which is why I started the thread.....McCain says he can still win. I worry that its true though most signs say he's wrong. I suppose there is no way to get a nonpartisan opinion here, I just want to know the likelihood of a McCain win and the percentages, not argue over which is better pointlessly. I should have known that wasn't going to happen.

I am not directing any ire on you, Foolsguinea, so please don't take anythin I've said in that way.

[Onomatopoeia]

Originally Posted by Jolly Roger

I think we need to turn this country around. We've lost so much in the last 8 years. We're becoming a laughing stock. (I am leaving this post, but its a NATO assignment and trust me, the other nations want to like us, but they have lost respect for us. Bush has managed to put a dunce cap on Uncle Sam. I know that a lot of people think "it doesn't matter what furriners think", but i disagree....and a lot of them...hell, all of the ones I've met, and they ain't joes off of the street but officials and officers from NATO countries....think Obama would restore their faith in the USA.) I don't want to sidetrack the thread on that, but you know what, I CARE what the rest of the world thinks of us, even if I don't base my vote on it. Since I have to deal with and work with these other countries in some capacity its important to me.

I agree with this 100 percent. I travel internationally for work from time to time, and the sentiment I get from my associates and counterparts who physicians and medical attorneys, in the UK, France, Spain, Switzerland, and Germany is the US has become an ignorant bully. They believe we are generally less educated than citizens of European countries, and we're inexplicably proud of the distinction. This election has only served to cement the negative opinion. A colleague of mine who's a professor at the University of Leicester is obsessed with our election, convinced that McCain will eke out a win and fearful that the Neocons will take this as a mandate to continue and expand Americas imperialist policies. I'm very hopeful he's wrong.

[Desert Nomad]

Originally Posted by Onomatopoeia

A colleague of mine who's a professor at the University of Leicester is obsessed with our election, convinced that McCain will eke out a win and fearful that the Neocons will take this as a mandate to continue and expand Americas imperialist policies. I'm very hopeful he's wrong.

God help us if he is right.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BL8zvxoz9gg

Living overseas, I hear the same concerns everyday... that Americans are ignorant bullies, bent on war and destruction. And you know, they are right. The last 8 years have destroyed our reputation in the world and have brought suffering to millions. We need to take a good long look at ourselves and change our course.

Obama must win.