I guess I’ll start here and save the Draft specific stuff until the Combine gets underway.
The Bears are a weird team in a weird situation, in many ways they are a walking contradiction. They have some great talent, but they are talent-poor overall. They are inexperienced and old at the same time. They are a poorly coached team that tends to play above their talent level. All this averages out to mediocrity, which just isn’t getting the job done.
More than anything this team needs a change in leadership. It won’t happen this year, and next year might even be a long shoot. Bears ownership tends to wait one or two years too long to make management changes, which I suppose is better than having a hair trigger, but it’s frustrating to watch. The fact that Lovie has taken over the defensive play calling and brought in his buddy Marinelli it’s safe to say that next year will determine his future. There won’t be any more scapegoating of the coordinators and position coaches. Jerry Angelo is a little trickier, but most people seem to think he and Lovie are a package deal at this point. I don’t think he’s irreplaceable though, he’s an above average talent evaluator and scouter but he has very poor judgment when it comes to relative value and seems helpless in free agency and the trade market.
Offensively the Bears have issues pretty much everywhere. Let’s go position by position:
QB: Obviously the situation here is dicey and well covered. I find it strange that this season is the one where Angelo starts saying the the QB position is a priority, we were actually fairly steady there this year and Orton was gradually improving. He’s probably never going to be a Pro Bowl QB but I can see him being successful in the postseason if we are able to re-establish the Defense and Running Game. Also, the WR group we had was awful so evaluating him is hard to do accurately. I’m not sure why Angelo wasn’t convinced the QB position was important the previous 8 seasons.
We need depth and I’d like to see us draft a guy with a prototypical NFL arm. I’d be willing to give Warner or McNabb a shot, but that’s probably a pipe dream and without quality WRs what’s the point. All in all I think we stand pat here and probably bring in a veteran backup to replace Grossman as the #2. We already signed Brett Basanez to push Caleb Hanie as the #3.
RB: I love what we have in Matt Forte but I think the powers that be are being foolish in using him. They are trying to make him a work horse back, which is a outdated notion. I love that he’s a 3 down back and can do everything, but his effectiveness will be diminished if he’s over used. Also, Forte simply isn’t fast enough to be a home run threat. I would love the Bears to draft a speedster, even if he is a bit one dimensional, somewhere in the middle rounds to spell Forte and give them an ability to field a viable 2 back formation. If the guy can split wide into the slot even better.
All in all, I don’t see much happening in free agency on this front. The only RBs that are available are old washed up guys that are essentially more fragile versions of Forte. Speed guys simply don’t get onto the market. I’d love to see Tomlinson in a Bears uni. He’s probably not going to be worth what he’ll cost, but I still love the guy and would have fun cheering him on.
WR: This is the ugliest position on the team and the one most important in free agency. The Devin Hester experiment isn’t a bust but it’s not a solution either. It’s silly for the Bears to continue trying to make him a #1 option and it’s even more silly to line him up on the outside. Terrible coaching there. I’m convinced he could be a utterly dominant slot and if you had a Anquan Boldin type on the outside and forced teams to cover Hester with a Safety or a Nickel, he’d be devastating. The rest of the mix of old and young guys, Booker, Lloyd, Bradley and Davis all could be worthy of roster spots so long as we get a stud to move them into the #3 spot where they belong.
In short, a big splash at WR would solve a lot of issues. A half-assed move at WR does nothing for us. If we get Boldin or Houshmandzadeh we’ll be in great shape. The second tier of Bryant, Washington or Devery Henderson would all make me very happy at a fair price. Getting a feisty slot guy like Lance Moore, Mike Furrey or Jabar Gaffney would be a disaster. You just can’t field one of those guys when you have Hester doing the same thing and bringing them in would mean the Bears are stuck playing Hester out of position at the outside WR spot. I can’t decide if I’d prefer one of the older big names or one of the cheaper, younger more iffy guys. My first instinct is to want Henderson since an outside WR is going to be a decoy more often than not with Orton as the QB and there’s no point in paying top dollar for a 31 year old Housh or having to give something up in trade for a 28 year old Boldin.
OL: The O-Line is still a weakness and they need to keep retooling. We are getting very old with Kreutz and Tait and their performances the last few years have been subpar considering their price. Last years rookie tackle was hurt from the get go and might never amount to anything, nice work Jerry. We need him to develop badly and we need to resign St Clair.
I’m not sure we need to be shopping in free agency unless there’s a bargain out there who can add interior depth. Honestly I don’t know how good those guy are, but I know that mid-round draft picks don’t tend to succeed on the line either. In any case, this isn’t our most pressing need in free agency unless spending money here allows us more freedom to make a splash in the draft.
On the Defense things are equally questionable. What was once a strength is now a highly paid liability. I’ll take this a little less specifically.
In the secondary Nathan Vasher and Mike Brown will probably be gone and it’ll be a relief to dump those big contracts. Not sure how much Vasher will hurt the cap, but he certainly isn’t worth the money any more and he can’t stay healthy. We have a few guys in Graham and Manning who will benefit from the playing time but Steltz and McGowan need to remain backups.
I’d love to see this money thrown at a stud Cornerback, and Nnamdi Asomugha would be the ultimate fantasy. He’s #1 on my list of offseason wishes. The Raiders will probably want to franchise him but with that organization you never know and perhaps a deal can be worked out to bring him here. We’d be able to move Tillman to the weak side and have Graham as the Nickel. Not sure if there’s another guy out there of his caliber but I think a first-rate veteran is crucial.
We need Safety help too and that’s a reasonably deep position with free agents. The draft isn’t so I hope we can put something together before then. Jermaine Phillips would be an awesome second option if Nnamdi isn’t there. If we spend big money anywhere this offseason I hope it’s in the secondary.
The Linebackers also have a hole at the Strong Side. Hillenmeyer was a stupid signing from the outset, anyone could see he was living off a rock solid D-Line and that he’d be toast if that group faltered. Michael Boley would be a terrific replacement. The Bears don’t need a first rate guy here since Urlacher and Briggs can still bring it but they need an athlete who can shed a block. This is another spot where the draft can help, but if a cheap option in FA lets you spend you picks elsewhere they should do it.
Our D-Line needs to play better but I’m not convinced we need to invest a ton of money there. We have a bunch of guys who have at one time or another been Pro Bowlers and they are still in their primes. Hopefully Marinelli can make the difference here.
All in all the Bears can really help themselves in Free Agency, especially if they fill some holes cheaply. Ideally I’d like to see them focus on WR, CB and S in Free Agency and address everything else via the draft.
My semi-realistic dream list would be Asomugha, Henderson, Dawan Landry and Rashad Jeanty or Michael Boley
