The 2005 NFL Season is essentially over and the smoke is still clearing from Super Bowl XL. In my book, that means it’s time to start talking about the 2006 NFL Season!
Here’s the goal, tell us how you see the prospects for your team(s) chances to get into Super Bowl XLI. If you were the GM what changes would you make to the roster to get the job done next season, and what changes do you really expect to happen. What rumors are circulating around your franchise’s potential Free Agents and the available options in the FA pool? How do you like you’re new (or old) coach? Where should they be looking in the draft? In short, whats the scoop on the poop? What direction are they heading, up or down?
I’ll start things off with my Chicago Bears. CBS-Sportsline has a excellent resource which details every team’s season and it’s position-by-position needs. You can see the Bears team report which I read there, in order to view other teams use the dropdown menu at the upper right. Position-by-position capsules are under the “Strategy and personnel” link.
Here’s my perspective:
Summary: Coming in off a pretty solid season, one which played out much better than I (or almost anyone else) predicted, things are looking pretty good. There’s no big ugly white elephants on the roster. No major impending losses due to salary cap issues. The coaching staff will probably be intact now that it’s becoming unlikely that Ron Rivera will be any team’s first choice as a head coach. For the first time in years we’re drafting near the bottom of the first round and do not have any gaping holes to fill. There’s very little reason to expect that any of the divisional rivals will become a juggernaut next season, every one getting a brand new, first-time head coach. A repeat playoff appearance should be expected.
Coaching: As mentioned, the current crew did a fine job this year. Don’t think I’ve forgotten the way they completely gagged in the playoff game, and yes I almost entirely blame the staff. Still, I don’t feel like its something that’s likely to happen again. They should certainly learn from it and be humbled by it. The Bengals and Panthers games showed that they need to improve on covering an “A+” wide out, in the offseason we’ll see if that happens. Even with the huge improvement this season, I’m not 100% in love with these guys and will continue to pine for Mike Singletary to be involved here one way or another.
Offensively Ron Turner gave me plenty of reasons to feel confident. He was shorthanded, had key injuries at QB, WR and RB yet still held things together. The stats looked bad and the production wasn’t consistent but all things considered he did an admirable job of not costing the team. He deserves quite a lot of credit for how Orton was able to step up when needed (remember he won 10 games without the benefit of being the #1 or #2 in training camp) and he deserves as much credit for helping Grossman come in prepared and productive when needed. That said, the offense must improve next year.
They added a new DB coach in Ron English from U of Michigan. No idea how much blame the previous guy should get for that debacle against Steve Smith, but I have a hard not not believing this to be an improvement. We’ll see.
Most critically, I think, is the seriously flawed Special Teams. In every facet they failed this season, when the failures are this broad and complete I point the finger at the special teams coach. He’s not expected to be going anywhere since he’s had success in the past here and with the Eagles, but I hope he’s getting some serious pressure put on him.
QB - I may be in the minority here, but I like our situation. Outsiders have been quick to point out that Grossman hasn’t done nearly enough to be considered “the guy”, but you can just see that the team responds to him and he has the physical talents. If he can stay healthy I would expect him to have a shockingly productive season. Orton can be trusted to fill in, and there’s no reason to think he’s incapable of improving beyond what he did this year. There needs to be consistency and growth for sure, but I see no reason to blow up the current depth chart by adding another draftee or finding a FA veteran to start. Wade Wilson, the QB coach, is happy with these guys and he’s should know what he’s talking about. Adding a top veteran starter would mean a current key starter at another position would have to be cut, I think that’d do more harm than good.
RB - I’m concerned about this position, but not severely. I think Benson was a wasted pick, and I think he’ll be a bust in the long run. However, as long as Jones stays healthy and produces like he did this season Benson could become a solid but over-priced change-of-pace back. We have depth with Peterson but I don’t expect this group as presently composed to ever be able to dominate and control games against quality opponents. Very few teams can make that claim though, so I don’t think it’d be wise to act drastically at this position when the current group is above average. I’d love to see them make a wise gamble in the later rounds of the draft here though. Either getting a scary fast guy that could be a 3rd down back/return guy or a sledgehammer who can upgrade the FB position.
WR - This position is ugly and needs to be the first one addressed. Moose Muhammad was a bust. Early in the season he seemed to be saying all the right things and playing well, but it gradually became apparent that he was a serious problem. He’d undermine Orton to the press and get in his face on the sidelines, bad for anyone but potentially crushing for a rookie, all while constantly dropping easy passes and getting nothing after the catch. We’re stuck with him, so the best possibility is getting another threat out there so he’s forced to step up at risk of losing playing time. Berrian showed signs of being a nice speed threat, and Mark Bradley looked like a potential superstar before getting hurt. Bradley was supposed to have suspect hands, but it never showed itself in his short time catching Ortons passes. The rest of the group needs to go and come hell or high water they need to get another stud.
Randle El, a native Chicagoan, is suspected to be the top FA target for Angelos and he’s certainly a credible threat. Who knows what his price tag will be, but I’m not quite ready to get on the bandwagon. I loved the guy in Pittsburgh, but a big part of his ability revolves around the gadget plays and using his QB skills. The Bears and Ron Turner have never employed those things. Aside from that, Randle El is a guy who only gets about 3 catches a game, and about 10 touches with kicks and runs. Seems like there’s got to be a better option out there, though his versatility and special teams skills are very attractive and a good fit. The draft isn’t likely to provide anything close to a sure thing, but if someone slips they’d better pull the trigger and finding a late round project is where I’d be looking.
TE - The CBS link goes out of it’s way to point out that the Bears have never employed the tight end position to any large degree. This is true, yet they and Mel Kiper have been predicting that the Bears will be targeting a TE with their first pick, likely Leonard Pope of Georgia. This seems contradictory, if they aren’t going to use him why pick him? I’d love to see the Bears get a dangerous TE and to build a effective play-action attack around him, but I’m not sure if that’s in their make-up. It certainly is an interesting alternative to adding a WR to help the passing attack. The current crew is mediocre at best, though Clark has his moments. Clark’s tendency to disappear in games is a worry, though I’m not sure if it’s due to his shortcomings or the coaches choice. If the latter, you have to wonder if a athletic rookie would be much of an addition. They should start making use of this position one way or another though, and spending a 1st rounder on it would be motivation.
OL - This unit is very strong and very experienced. Due to injuries in past seasons even the second stringers have lots of playing time under their belts. This is a great situation to be in. Clearly depth is always critical on the injury prone OL and they should consider adding players any way they can, but there’s no reason to expect or want any notable changes at this position. I’d be happy to see them stand pat and remain a top ten line.
DL - This unit is also very deep and talented. The ends are one of the better duos in the game and they are both young enough to expect continued production. They’ve focused on this position with the draft and are now reaping it’s rewards. Michael Haynes hasn’t been doing much after being a hyped first round pick, and might have some value as trade bait. If a defense desperate team needs a DE the Bears should look to make a move to acquire a pick or another player. In the later rounds I’d love to see them get an another big body on the inside as an insurance policy, but the current crew will stay intact and be one of the best in the league again.
LB - Not much needs to be said about this group. They get plenty of deserved credit and the starting group will all probably be back. Hillenmeyer is a FA but all indications are that he’ll be back. It was painfully obvious how important he was to this team when he went down with an injury. I had questioned him because he often plays catch with runners and gave yards after contact, but it’s easy to forget that he’s never out of position and almost always makes those tackles, even if he isn’t a stone wall. To that point, they need depth at this position. Injuries hit this position hard so it’s tough to judge just how effective the second stringers can be when called upon, but I have concerns. It’s a very fast group top-to-bottom but the backups have been especially prone to missing tackles. It’s not the most pressing area of concern, but I certainly would like to see improvement here one way or another.
DB - When you consider that this was probably the best defense in football, it’s not surprising that none of the defensive groups need major changes. The DBs are no exception, but this is the 3rd season in a row that’s had a serious toll taken by injuries. These guys have to manage to stay healthy. They had trouble matching up with the best WRs in the league, especially the fastest players, but I think they need help from the coaches there. Azumah is gone and Tillman got abused by Steve Smith, but there’s some depth and youth there. It’d be a waste to spend too much on another DB unless someone besides Azumah leaves. I don’t think they should spend a 1st rounder, but they absolutely must get another CB one way or another. The draft is ridiculously deep at the CB position this year, so that 2nd or 3rd round pick should be the way to go. The Safeties are good and deep enough that Mike Green is likely going to be a cap casualty.
Special Teams - Ugh, I don’t even want to think about it. These guys stunk of the joint. Bobby Wade was so bad as a return man that he got cut. Maynard somehow avoided all the blame he deserved for that playoff loss. All season long he was shanking key kicks under pressure and rarely pinned teams inside the 15 yard line. He’s got to go. Gould was a mid-season replacement for the pig that Brien was. Gould was reasonably consistent from short and medium range in difficult conditions but one of the most underrated plays in football is the kickoff. He was simply awful there, almost always giving away good starting position to opponents by dropping his kickoffs at the 10 yardline or worse. Clearly finding skilled players for these roles can be tough and you hesitate to take a kicker or punter with a first day draft pick, but I’m inclined to suggest it here. You can’t pass up another area of need, but if they have to reach for a WR, TE or DB they should consider grabbing a kicker or punter. I’m not sure if there’s a top flight FA guy available, but they should be opening the pocketbook for one. Kicker first and foremost, but don’t be surprised if P Steve Weatherford from Turner’s former employer Illinois gets taken in the 6th round.
As for the KR and PR, ideally one of the other areas of need can fill these roles. Randle El has terrific PR skills and can make up for shortcomings as a WR here. If they do target a speed RB he’d have to have return skills and CBs have traditionally been good PR options. Whatever the case, filling these needs has to be a priority. A true specialist may not be a luxury they can afford, but if a late round Tim Dwight-esque talent appears there would be worse options. On the whole there are more important needs to address but if a “B-” WR has “A” return skills you definitely draft or sign him over the “B+” WR. I’d be interested to see RB Adrian Peterson testing out his skills as the KR if another solution is not found.
Recap - There’s plenty to feel good about this offseason, but there’s enough issues that comfort or confidence shouldn’t be an issue. The guys I would be targeting with the first pick in the draft are Georgia TE Leonard Pope and Miami WR Sinorice Moss or Florida WR Chad Jackson. Both fill needs, and both are projected to be around for the 26th pick. I’d kill for a shot at TE Vernon Davis but that’s probably a pipe dream, I’m not sure how well Pope compares. If Randle El isn’t an option and no other experienced WRs are up to the task either of those WR would probably be great. Moss will have to prove he has return skills similar to his brother to make him a fair value there, otherwise Jackson the better choice and can be a legit deep threat with size. As mentioned, Weatherford is a possibility as a punter in the 6th round or ideally as an undrafted FA. Colorado WR and Olympic skiier Jeremy Bloom is an interesting guy to keep an eye on as a return specialist. He’s undersized but has sickening speed, and if he shows some bonefides in the combine he might fit in with that 6th pick. The 2nd and/or 3rd picks should be spent on one of many CB choices. The 4th and 5th round choices should look to take advantage of the reasonably deep LB crop and seeking one of the few speedy, slashing RBs available. There’s at least 3 guys that have great 40 times and were productive but lack the size and durability to be a every-down back. In free agency the biggest goal is finding a WR. Rookie WRs tend to take too long to develop and the Bears don’t want to wait. Second, they should target a top FA kicker if one’s available. No reason to shop in the bargain basement at this position and I’m not sure there’s a guy in the draft worth banking on.
I think it’s very realistic to hope the Bears can add Randle El or another veteran WR, a top rookie TE or WR and a kicker and punter. There’s room for contingency plans and I think a Super Bowl hope is warranted.
Key Needs (in order): WR/TE, CB, K, P, LB, KR, PR
I know we’ve got a plethora of Green Bay fans, New Yorkers, New Englanders and of course Steelers fans on the board so I’m hoping they’ll add their perspectives there. I don’t expect everyone to have the spare time and OCD to type up a rambling and long description like this one, but I everyones opinions are invited and hoped for.