NFL Week 7 - Pip Pip, Cheerio Chaps!

The Game Room
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Lots of Bye week teams this week and two of our squads make the trip East to Merry Olde England, facing off in Wembley Stadium. Only 2 huge double digit lines this week and as has been the case for most of the season I like the favorite in both. Only 2 Divisional games this week, that seems like a real oddity, and there are more inter-Conference games than intra-Conference games. Most of the really crappy teams are playing home games this week, though Tampa gets an asterisk on that one.

Anyways, on to the picks. I’m going to try and keep my rambling to a minimum. Partly because I’ve got plans tonight and I’m not really sure how much time I’ll want to spend and partly because I’ve been getting repetitive in my commentary. Previous attempts at an economy with words have been comical so we’ll see what happens!

Sunday, Oct. 25				
Early Games

** San Diego 4½ KANSAS CITY 44 **
It’s just about time to give up on the Chargers I think. This team just doesn’t seem to have any heart nor much pride. Offensively they can still be formidable and LDT showed signs of life as did Gates, but the passing game has been inconsistent and Sproles does more harm than good when he’s on the field against a competent defense with a smart DC. Defensively the Chargers look like a complete joke. They don’t tackle well, except for Larry English, and they don’t pressure the backfield at all. Lucky for them the Chiefs are coming to town, or rather they are going to their town. Things are moving in the right direction for the Chiefs finally with Cassel playing well and them getting a W finally, but against the Redskins they shouldn’t be feeling all that excited. For as poor as the Chargers run defense is it would be more than a shock if the Chiefs running game were to excel against it. LJ can’t get the corner any more and doesn’t explode through the interior and while he might grind out a decent game he won’t command 8 in the box. And for as disappointing as the Chargers D is the Chiefs D is their equal. That the game is in KC ought to be a red flag but I think this fanbase has been demoralized and that crowd could panic and turn on the team early.

The Pick: Chargers 23 - Chiefs 17

** Indianapolis 13 ST LOUIS 45 **
This game will be a drubbing. The Colts are fresh off a bye and the dome in St Louis will feel very much like home for them, it’s a short journey for the players and I suspect it will be a short journey for many Colts fans as well. I wouldn’t be shocked if the stadium was a 50-50 split come kickoff. St Louis has Steven Jackson and that’s about it, defensively they don’t stand a chance against Wayne, Collie and Garcon catching BB’s from Peyton. Lots of garbage time for Donald Brown and Addai.

The Pick: Colts 36 - Rams 3

** CINCINNATI 1½ Chicago 41½ **
Benson Bowl. Some interesting matchups here and I’ve already talked a bit about this game in last weeks thread. All in all Benson doesn’t worry me, the Bears play the run pretty well and pursue hard. Benson isn’t a scary cut back runner and doesn’t have the elusiveness to cut back and punish the Bears for over-pursuing. However he has been running down hill and making the most of every carry so while the Bears should be able to keep him from killing them, he might nickel and dime them to death and make it hard for the defense to get off the field. With Tommie Harris likely out and the backup LBs shuffling around again you have to give pause, but Harris hasn’t been that special this season and Adams and Harrison have looked solid and Idonije should be back to help the rotation. Roach is growing into the Mike role and Hillenmeyer should be reliable at his old Sam position. Ochocinco has been talking a lot of trash but so far this season Tillman has clamped down on everyone and I don’t thing CJ will change things much. Gaines Adams will be making his debut and it will be interesting to see how much work he gets and how effective he is, it will be important for the Bears to get to Palmer often this week one way or another and I think we’ll have some success there.

The matchup that decides this game will be the Bears passing attack versus the Bengals secondary and LBs. There’s a lot of teeth gnashing about Forte and I’m on the vanguard there but this isn’t the week to stress about it. The Bengals can stuff the run and we need to keep them honest with screens and draws but that’s only a token effort to keep the LBs from bailing into coverage. Our WRs should dominate the Bengals backs across the board and the TEs will eat up those seams. Cutler should be well over 300 yards this week and I suspect Johnny Knox will have a monster fantasy week. We need to be cautious about losing the time of possession battle, but the Bears passing game will be vertical and lethal. The loss of Odom will be big as I suspect the Bengals will need to blitz to create pressure which plays right into Cutler’s hands.

The Pick: Bears 27 - Bengals 23

** Green Bay 7 CLEVELAND 41½ **
The Packers get a AFC North opponent this week as well and while a small part of me thinks that the Browns are going to round into form and start playing much better soon, I simply cannot pick them to run with a pretty solid Pack offense. Their only chance here is if they can generate enough pressure on Rodgers to keep them frustrated, Wimbley is solid but between the loss of Jackson and an otherwise terrible defense it’d be a miracle if they did. On the other side of the ball things don’t get much easier with the anemic Browns offense facing a good Packers group that just pitched a shut out the Lions and is pretty healthy.

The Pick: Packers 24 - Browns 6

** PITTSBURGH 4 Minnesota 45 **
Hey, another Black and Blue team facing off against a AFC North opponent. I wonder if we can make it a sweep? With a 2.5 game lead I really need to root for the Vikings to lose but it’s awfully difficult to pull for the Steelers under any circumstances. I’ve gone back and forth on this game several times and I’m not really convinced that either team is as good as the hype they are getting. The Vikings could have easily lost 3 games this season and by all rights should have, statistically they aren’t particularly impressive in any area and I suspect Peterson will struggle somewhat against the Steelers on natural grass. Favre should have some success against the corners but if Polamalu is close to healthy when he’s out there he might very well be the one who finally give Favre that stinker we’ve all been waiting for. Defensively the Vikes will be hurting in the secondary, especially with Winfield out, and that’s not what you want to see with Ben putting up gaudy numbers. Jared Allen could have another field day against the spotty Steelers line and the Williams Wall will slow down the Steelers running game. Once again I think the turf will make Allen slightly less effective off the corner and without that dome noise they won’t be nearly as disruptive. Could be a monster week for Heath Miller and Santonio Holmes, looks like a high scoring affair to me.

The Pick: Steelers 32 - Vikings 23

** New England 14½ TAMPA BAY 45 **
New England takes it’s show to Olde England and they get to whip up on the Glazer’s cash cow. You have to wonder what the Londoners will do in this one. On one hand the Manchester United fans will probably want to see the Bucs fail miserably, but I’m not sure how the rest of the Premiership fans will feel about that, or if they’ll even know the connection. Less practically the Redcoats might see the New England Patriots, who ostensibly symbolize their embarrassing loss 200+ years ago, and root against them vigorously out of spite for America. Both cases essentially assume that the fanbase will be made up of locals with barely a passing knowledge of the teams involved, and for all I know it could be loaded with expats and English NFL junkies. Brady certainly gets the nod for star power, I’m not sure how much weight that carries internationally.

Anyways, when I spend a paragraph breaking down the fan angles it tells you that the game itself isn’t worth talking about. Expect a repeat of last weeks Titans drubbing. I have a slight caveat that the Bucs could get a running game going and Johnson’s scrambling ability could keep the Pats score in the 20s by moving the chains but all in all the Pats offense will march at will. If this game is a 40 point blowout how will the crowd react? Gah…back to the fan talk again!

The Pick: Patriots 31 - Bucs 10

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Cutler might throw for 300+ yds but don’t underestimate the Bengals CBs. They’ve been really solid so far and I won’t be surprised if they turn some of those passes the other way.

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** HOUSTON 3 San Francisco 44 **
Houston has been up and down all season and those downs tended to correspond to the games where their running defense fell apart. That’s the big question here and with Gore back off the bye week it’s something to worry about in Houston. You have to imagine that he’ll have a pretty solid game, while the Texans run D have been outstanding for the last 3 games other Cedric Benson they haven’t faced any really reliable attacks. The Niners will run often and they won’t abandon it if it struggles. I expect a much better performance from San Fran this week, but with the urgency to get Crabtree incorporated into the system I fear that maybe they’ve compromised their preparation in doing so. I think Crabtree will be an asset before the end of this season but I don’t think they’ll be able to work him in in 2 weeks without losing focus elsewhere. The reason I focus here is that it’ll take a sharp outing from the Niners offensively to keep up with the Texans in Houston. I just don’t see it happening. That’s a solid, sound defense but the Texans passing attack is clicking on all cylinders and this week will be no different.

The Pick: Texans 33 - Niners 24

Yuck, I picked the favorites in all the early games except my Bears. I suppose that Chiefs-Chargers pick is one I like the least. We’ll see.

Late Games

** N.Y. Jets 6 OAKLAND 34½ **
Couple of really rocky outings for the Jets and the Sanchise. They’ve looked so lost and clueless over the last 3 weeks or so it’s amazing that they can go on the road and be favored by a TD. The Raiders are a bad team but interestingly I heard the guys on the NFL Network talking about how the Raiders are feeling pretty pleased with themselves. It’s interesting because they were spinning this as a bad thing, that the Raiders are such a lax organization that confidence almost certainly begets complacency after just one big win. You know there will be a sense of urgency in Jersey in contrast, but can they travel to the other coast and get right versus the Raiders? The matchups favor the Jets just about everywhere, though it’s amusing that ESPN actually gives the edge to the Raiders at the QB position. I suppose the Jets will run the ball, the Raiders won’t. Can the Raiders throw enough and create turnovers to tilt the game in their favor? I don’t think Russell can handle it, Ryan’s schemes might get him into trouble against a smart offense and QB but these ain’t them.

The Pick: Jets 17 - Raiders 13

** CAROLINA 7 Buffalo 37½ **
The Bills are an awful run defense. Atrocious. The Panthers seem to be getting their mojo back and remembering that Delhomme sucks that they need to run the ball to win. Huge games from Williams and Stewart. Now, the only way you can consider picking the Bills in this game is if you take the following two factors as truths: 1) The Bills pass defense is great and the Delhomme will make mistakes against them and 2) Ryan Fitzpatrick is a big upgrade over Trent Edwards and exploits the Panthers secondary. I like the first point, but not the second because the Panthers pass D is every bit as good as the Bills. These teams are essentially mirror images of each other. Similar splits versus the pass and run and the same strengths and weaknesses on offense. The big tilt is that the Panthers running game is substantially better than the Bills.

The Pick: Panthers 17 - Bills 13

** New Orleans 6 MIAMI 47 **
There’s a TON of momentum on this Dolphins upset this week. People think the Saints are in a trap game after the big win and the Wildcat will catch the Saints by surprise. And while the Henne/Wildcat combo looked good before the bye I’m not remotely convinced they’ll outscore the Saints with it. Last game the Wildcat was about perfect and managed 31 points. The Saints have been good for 45+ a game except for 2 games when the won handily and were able to settle into a running game. Now, even if the Dolphins can recreate that perfect storm again they’ll still fall short of that Saints attack. Lay the points and don’t drink the Kool-Aid.

The Pick: Saints 37 - Dolphins 20

** DALLAS 4 Atlanta 47½ **
Can Dallas finally put it together? They’ve got a RB with a busted thumb and one with a sprained PCL. Their nominal #1 WR has bad ribs and hasn’t practiced much all week against a decent secondary. The Falcons front 7 are getting into the backfield and being very disruptive. Dallas hasn’t been getting much pressure on the QB and it’s been proven time and time again that when Ryan is clean he’ll pick you apart. Romo is going to need to have a big game and with Choice and Austin emerging the Cowboys have impressive depth but on paper I’m not convinced that the Cowboys ought to be favored. Dallas’ pass defense hasn’t been good and Roddy White and Gonzo should be able to run pretty free downfield.

The Pick: Falcons 28 - Cowboys 27

** N.Y. GIANTS 7 Arizona 46 **
Another fun SNF matchup. Most of the trends favor the Giants at home, especially with the Cards playing in the wind and chill in the Meadowlands and making that long journey East. The pundits expect the Giants and Eli to step up under the spotlight and the Cards to fold the way they used to. The Giants defense’s pride is supposedly hurt and they’ll be playing angry after last weeks embarrassment. I’m not buying any of it. The 40 degree temps and 20 mph winds are just as big a detriment to Eli as they are Warner and he doesn’t seem to excel at home. I think the Giants pass defense was exposed last week and the Cards have similar weapons and scheme. The main tent pole for the Giants is their running game and they’ll get theirs but the Cards have the leagues best run defense right now and they’ll be able to force Eli to throw more than he wants. And I’m getting a TD? Thanks a bunch.

The Pick: Cardinals 23 - Giants 20

Monday, Oct. 26

** Philadelphia 7 WASHINGTON 37½ **
If anyone thinks that giving the play calling duties to Sherm Lewis will improve the fates of the folks in Washington they obviously don’t remember what he was like in the NFC North in the 90s. What a mess. And unlike the Giants I do think that the wounded pride of the Eagles will have a big role in their approach this week. Reid will come out firing and you have to believe that he’ll have learned his lesson about abandoning the run against a low scoring team. The Eagles need to adjust their pass protection and take advantage of their opportunities, but those opportunities will be plentiful this week. There’s absolutely no way Lewis can get up to speed with the Eagles defensive schemes in one week and a 3 turnover game would not surprise me in the least.

The Pick: Eagles 35 - Redskins 0

Bye Week Teams: Denver, Detroit, Tennessee, Seattle, Jacksonville, Baltimore

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The Pass Defense’s 28th ranking seems to imply otherwise, a ranking that includes games against the Brownies and a 4 fingered Kyle Orton. And the loss of Odom will only make them more vulnerable. This will be the most speed they’ve faced all season.

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ESPN blogger Kevin Siefert just posted this really amazing video of the 1975 Super Bowl teams in a intense Tug-O-War on Wide World Of Sports. It’s an exciting 5 minutes of video, I suggest you all watch it. It’s amazing how seriously all these guys are taking this.

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Don’t you ever get tired of being wrong?

Sorry, I couldn’t resist. :smiley:

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Eh, you gotta just throw this game out. The Bengals offense was about flawless in the first quarter and Palmer was throwing darts all game. Even on the rare occasions when the Bears secondary had solid coverage Palmer was still able to put the ball in the perfect spot and move the chains.

The Bengals defense is still basically untested. The Bears got down so fast and so early that they had the throw out the gameplan and abandon the run and use a shotgun package that is essentially untested. Hester had a big game; for some reason the Bengals used Leon Hall on Knox and Bennett instead of Hester as expected, my previous prediction about Knox having a big day presumed Hall would be matched up on Hester. Long story short, the trend of the Bengals #2 CB getting toasted continued. All that is basically moot since it’s tough to draw many conclusions from a game where you have a 4 TD lead early in the second quarter. Lots of average defenses will look great against a team forced to throw on every down from a foreign shotgun package.